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What expansion there is has been/will likely continue to be gradual but at some point the country boys sell out too. Thinking of Hanover....30 years ago it was as rural as anywhere in the country. Now it looks like a regular suburb (or at least Mechanicsville - Atlee area). Little azz Mechanicsville got a Bonchon before Chicago even.
Much of Hanover is still rural. Think Montpelier area. Though Mechanicsville still has that country setting, despite the growth.
Eastern Henrico is still very rural and close in. South Chesterfield has its rural areas too.
Then of course my area of Powhatan/Amelia is rural but also fairly close in. Same goes for Goochland and New Kent.
There is a lot of country land here. I would love for it to stay that way though.
A step below Norfolk or the larger Hampton Roads area? It's been a while since I've been to Norfolk but Richmond has pretty much always felt more developed and important to me. It's the state capital and economically Richmond easily has the upper hand. On higher ed I think they are more or less equal. But as for history, arts, culture, and architecture, I think Richmond has a clear advantage. And its BRT line is more efficient than the Tide in Norfolk. Norfolk has its coastal location going for it but it's in a geographic cul-de-sac and economically it's much less dynamic than Richmond.
Just my opinion, but I did mean Norfolk specifically. It has some advantages such as the largest naval base in the world, the waterfront, the port of Norfolk, and better utilization of its downtown - downtown has a large mall, tourist attractions, the NorVa (one of the top venues in the country per Rolling Stone magazine), and more restaurants. Also some great museums, I don't know all of Richmond's but the Chrysler Museum > VMFA if you ask me.
Its location in Hampton Roads provides benefits relevant to this discussion - due to the surrounding cities, Norfolk has a large amount of commuters and other visitors constantly in the city supporting its businesses. This has led to greater foot traffic and vibrancy than many areas in Richmond, and Norfolk is usually where people from the surrounding areas go for nightlife/cultural events. Usually HR comes up in discussions around NBA expansion teams, and it likely would end up in Norfolk should they ever land one. There is more shopping in the city proper that I'm aware of. Lastly, the Naval base adds about 100,000 more people to its already larger population.
All this said, Richmond definitely has an advantage in terms of architecture, and I agree with you on history though Norfolk has a lot. If you ever get to visit, check out the Cannonball Trail. Transit - I'm not sure about - both have competent bus systems, Norfolk does have a light rail but unless they've expanded it since I left.... it's practically useless and no one rides it.
Hopefully I don't sound like a booster - I live in Philly with no plans of leaving, both cities are too small for my taste. I just have put a lot of thought into this comparison because when I lived in Norfolk, Richmond was on my list of potential places to go post-grad. It's a cool town and I enjoy my visits, even if I have gotten tired of going to the same 3 restaurants in Church Hill every visit for the last 5 years lol. But major city potential? I personally give to Norfolk, admitting that its location plays a large role.
Unrelated: Why can't I even take Amtrak to the downtown Richmond station from Philly?!! Staples Mill SUCKS.
Charleston’s GDP and population is half that of the Triad. Greenville’s GDP growing twice as fast puts it on course to pass the Triad in what decade? None of these are on pace to be “major” any time soon, but even if Charleston and Upstate are going faster, they are further back. As of this moment, the triad cities are closer to “major” status. They might not be there in 20 years (well, I think they will up against Charleston), but I think that takes “reasonable time frame” beyond it’s limits.
Charleston is qualitatively the closest to being considered "major" or some version of "world class" out of them all IMO. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets a major league pro franchise before Greensboro or Winston-Salem.
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All that said, Durham is still the correct answer in my eyes though the legacy/isolation nature makes Richmond compelling. Add Norfolk as your wildcard, and I think those are the only 3 that have a chance at major status in the foreseeable future (next decade or so).
I get the argument for Durham although I think its second-city status somewhat muddles things. Richmond is my answer for reasons already given.
Charleston is qualitatively the closest to being considered "major" or some version of "world class" out of them all IMO. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets a major league pro franchise before Greensboro or Winston-Salem.
I don’t think Charleston is anywhere close to getting a major league sports team, but it’s arguably in a better spot than the Triad or Upstate simply due to location. The Triad being smack dab in between Charlotte and the Triangle. And Charleston being the biggest “name” city in the state, with the other two plausible in-state locations being less than 2 hours from Charlotte.
Charleston is a premier tourist spot and a world-class dining location. It probably has the best name recognition among this group along with Asheville. It’s not on the cusp of being once again a major city like it was in the 19th century however. Maybe in my son’s lifetime. Maybe.
Yes; Raleigh is the larger municipality. Not sure what your point is though.
You don't know what you're talking about.
Durham has 284K people in its municipal limits and 650K in the MSA. Duke has just under 7K undergrads (about 16K including grads). NC Central has 8K students total. That's not a college town; that's a small city with two decent-sized universities.
Neighboring Chapel Hill has 62K residents and UNC has a total enrollment of 32K, just over half of the population of the town itself. THAT is a college town.
In my estimation, any city that is dominated culturally by a university is a college town.
Much like in Columbus, when the breaking news about a Big 10 head coach or running back is splashed across the front pages....its a college town. I don't care what the population is. We could even throw Austin in here.
It's probably Richmond, which feels like a bigger city than it actually is. You would've thought, based on history, that it would have become the leading "New South" city, but Atlanta took that role instead. However, it has the legacy of a major southern city, something that Durham (despite Duke and RTP) and Greenville don't really have.
I think Greenville has the best shot. It's got good access to Atlanta and Charlotte, and it's just a plain-out desirable place to be. What's more, it's not chained down to its history. Charleston, which by the way I absolutely love, is a charming, genteel, historical city -- and if they grow to major city status, they're at risk of diluting their "brand." It's not impossible, of course; see Boston and Philadelphia, for example. But Charleston, like Williamsburg, VA, is so well known for what it was (its historical-ness) that I don't think it can outgrow that. Greenville has none of these constraints.
Runner-up would be Richmond, IMO.
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