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Interesting. I noticed Wake County’s population passed Fairfax County last year in estimates, surprising me because Fairfax lost a sizable chunk of people. I assumed it was a covid reshuffle, had no idea it went back to 2018. Mecklenburg is likely to pass Fairfax in the next couple years. Do we know if people in NoVa are moving to Maryland, or are they leaving the DC metro by-and-large?
I was one of those people that moved from Fairfax to Wake, but that was 16 years ago. OK, technically I moved from Fairfax to Loudoun County, Va to Wake County, but same difference.
I also have MANY (well over 10 adults on my street alone) neighbors with who I am friends with that all moved from Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William Counties (3 core NoVa counties) to Wake County over the last 1-10 years.
When I ran the Wake migration numbers a decade ago, it was suburban New York (primarily Long Island) that sent the most interstate migrants to Wake. Now it's suburban DC.
Of course, big metros have long been "factories for Americans"; their birth rates are higher than their death rates, and they've long been entrepots for immigrants. So it's less that "everyone's leaving the cities" and more that big metros' suburbs have nowhere left to sprawl to, so their suburbanites are increasingly moving to other metros.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NC_MVP
Is it possible that NC surpassed VA in population due to having stronger second and third tier cities?
Good point as well - which perhaps holds down what otherwise would be population losses beyond the big metros. WNC, the Sandhills, and OBX are all retirement destinations; IIRC the Sandhills reported the state's highest percentage gain for in-migration in 2021. Yes, Williamsburg, Virginia Beach, and Charlottesville also draw retirees, but don't get the same national press.
Fayetteville and Jacksonville benefitted from the BRAC process, whereas Hampton Roads and NoVA saw substantial job cuts. NoVA has certainly seen plenty of replacement jobs, but less so Hampton Roads.
Easy.. NC has a larger rural or smaller population of rural cities for up and coming larger metros to draw from, then toss in the transplants from the NE. Remember, not long ago, Raleigh and Charlotte were very cheap alternatives to moving to versus more expensive metros like DC. An easy migration close to home. Large VA metros have always been more urban with less rural population (the State) to create a population growth buzz. NoVa is really DC in terms of location.
Ok, just saw that, same points from NC MVP.
Last edited by Big Aristotle; 05-25-2022 at 07:32 PM..
Northern Virginia’s population has really stalled over the last couple years due to cost of living. In Fairfax the average single family home price is $1M. In Arlington and Falls Church its $1.1M. I think as the cost of living here gets higher and more ridiculous more folks will relocate to places like North Carolina and places like Raleigh due to the lower cost of living.
Just to throw this out first and foremost, I will admit that the population and growth differences between North Carolina and Virginia are not drastic. North Carolina has over 10 million residents and sits at 9th overall, while Virginia has over 8 million and sits at 12th.
However, if you examine the histories of both states, I feel like most would expect Virginia to be more populated today. Virginia had a deep water port, one of the largest cities in the South (Richmond), access to many rivers, and is located closer to the Northeast. On the other hand, North Carolina viewed itself as a “vale of humility,” lacking a deep water port and navigable rivers, therefore remaining rural and backwards with very few urban centers.
Why did North Carolina surpass Virginia, then? Both states are practically equal in size, unlike South Carolina which is noticeably smaller. Was it the textiles and tobacco jobs in North Carolina that attracted more transplants? Or could it be argued that the historic reputations of both states were over exaggerated and aren’t accurate?
Richmond size is decent but only 12th largest Metro in the south - the city's population is like 232K, metro area is 1.3 million. More importantly, most of those cities now larger like Austin, Dallas, Houston, Atlanta and Charlotte were for 150 years smaller. I think NC colleges, both Big conference and HBCUs, attract more people. Second, so much of VA's economy is skewed towards metro D.C., I think its hindered growth elsewhere. Textiles and tobacco are relics for the NC economy. NC is more white collar due to the Research Triangle and Banking.
I mean on one hand, there is a kernel of truth there. Cheaper cost of living is a powerful draw when places first attract people. London beget Manhattan beget Brooklyn beget Yonkers beget etc etc. Nova was one of the main beneficiaries of that towards the end of the last century, and now is seeing the worm turn. But obviously that becomes reductive as col is doesn’t explain all moving patterns, otherwise the Triad would be the darling of the region.
The difference is Virginia killed it's cities during the 60s-80s, all Virginia cities are independent and are not able to grow thru annexation. Before then Virginia cities were growing pretty fast and we're much richer. Now all the wealth of Virginia strongest cities are trapped in neighboring Suburbs, which are untied from the core cities. Nova being the exception it grew because of it's proximity to DC.
Both Norfolk and Richmond would have populations over 700,000 people if cities could annex. Richmond wanted to merge with Henrico during the 60s and also wanted to annex the more popoulus regions of Chesterfield. In Norfolk case neither VB or Chesapeake wouldn't exist and there population would be Norfolk's.
Virginias independent city laws also laid waste to alot of smaller cities in the interior and western parts of the state also. So really Virginia has handicapped it's cities, which also affected population trends.
In spite of that VA still has 3 metros with over 1.3 million people, in 2 of the 3 the core city has been handicapped by state laws. Until recently both Hampton Roads and Nova was larger than any NC metros. Virginia would need to get out of it own way, and I'm sure Virginia metros would be extremely competitive.
Easy.. NC has a larger rural or smaller population of rural cities for up and coming larger metros to draw from... Large VA metros have always been more urban with less rural population (the State) to create a population growth buzz
Yes, this is also a factor. Urbanized percentage of population, 1970 to 2000:
NC 45.5 -> 60.2%, +14.7%
VA 63.2 -> 73.0%, +9.8%
Primary urbanization slows at around 70-85%, which Virginia was starting to hit in the 1990s. Even in NC, as mentioned above, the primary draw for new urban residents is elsewhere within the state rather than from other states.
Yes, this is also a factor. Urbanized percentage of population, 1970 to 2000:
NC 45.5 -> 60.2%, +14.7%
VA 63.2 -> 73.0%, +9.8%
Primary urbanization slows at around 70-85%, which Virginia was starting to hit in the 1990s. Even in NC, as mentioned above, the primary draw for new urban residents is elsewhere within the state rather than from other states.
Indeed, half backs from the NE and other places only magnified urban growth in NC. Which for RDU was purely centered on educational institutions. Matter of fact, Charlotte benefitted greatly from this in-state skilled workforce. The other point is NC made Community College concentration a focal point, even in rural areas of the state….all these things created a perfect storm for growth at the right time.
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