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Old 05-01-2022, 11:24 AM
 
Location: Baltimore
21,629 posts, read 12,754,191 times
Reputation: 11221

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Quote:
Originally Posted by MDAllstar View Post
Loll, so you’re proving population data for the next 20 years? That’s the only thing I’m talking about. What are you talking about?

Whether in Boston, NYC, Philadelphia, Paris, or Tokyo. The only thing that we all can actually say for certain is that a new building will provide new people living in the neighborhood. Do you not agree with that? This is getting very confusing. Didn’t Boston grow from 2010-2020 because of new construction?
You can’t say for certain people will move in-or who’s many. None of us can predict the future. And even extrapolating for the future Boston is still more dense than DC in 20 years as three posters have already explain (JP, myself and btown)

You’re posts in general about DC focus primarily on pipelines and 2030- I wish you’d focus more of your efforts on DC and things we actually have proof of. There’s lots to be excited about or proud about in DC that actually exists today. Quite frankly I don’t care much (I do a little) about what DC has in the pipeline. Things can change in a heartbeat.
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Old 05-01-2022, 11:26 AM
 
Location: Washington D.C.
13,727 posts, read 15,751,203 times
Reputation: 4081
Quote:
Originally Posted by btownboss4 View Post
I think pretending to know what DC is going to build in 2032 is equally a crapshoot.

Nope. Especially in DC or New York or London that’s not always true. You don’t know if say some NBC employee who does Sunday Shows in DC is gonna swoop up the Condo to stay on weekends then go back to living in NYC during the week. A duplex with two families being replaced with a small apartment with say 9 units building that’s bought up by rich college students who have the entire apartment to themselves might actually decrease the population.

You do not know if going from 2 units to 9 units drops the population from 10 to 9 or increases it from 3 to 23.

That’s literally why the Census (US and local) exists rather than just counting mailing
addresses

Another example is I know a neighborhood by a university where the entire block was originally 3 bedroom Triple Deckers. It was converted to college apartments. In every floor they turned the dining room into a living room and the living room into a bedroom.

So this whole block saw a 25% increase in bedrooms without any new construction or new units.
You’re right, nothing is ever guaranteed, but new construction seems like the most consistent and accurate measurement. If you disagree with that, what do you think is more important to predicting future population?

If you were mayor of Boston, since you wouldn’t focus on building more housing to grow Boston, what would you do? How would you choose to grow the city?
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Old 05-01-2022, 11:34 AM
 
Location: Baltimore
21,629 posts, read 12,754,191 times
Reputation: 11221
Quote:
Originally Posted by MDAllstar View Post
You’re right, nothing is ever guaranteed, but new construction seems like the most consistent and accurate measurement. If you disagree with that, what do you think is more important to predicting future population?

If you were mayor of Boston, since you wouldn’t focus on building more housing to grow Boston, what would you do? How would you choose to grow the city?
Can’t speak for btown but If I were mayor of Boston I’d want more housing units primarily to alleviate overcrowding of existing units and to increase demand and vacancies. I would build more housing with the idea of fewer people per unit, not necessarily with the goal to grow population as Boston is already very dense and has too many group living and multigenerational housing arrangements IMO.

Some metros like Philly Chicago and Baltimore added more housing units and population increase didn’t match up- it’s possible. https://dc.urbanturf.com/articles/bl...t-decade/18622
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Old 05-01-2022, 11:40 AM
 
14,020 posts, read 15,011,523 times
Reputation: 10466
Quote:
Originally Posted by BostonBornMassMade View Post
Can’t speak for btown but If I were mayor of Boston I’d want more housing units primarily to alleviate overcrowding of existing units and to increase demand and vacancies. I would build more housing with the idea of fewer people per unit, not necessarily with the goal to grow population as Boston is already very dense and has too many group living and multigenerational housing arrangements IMO.

Some metros like Philly Chicago and Baltimore added more housing units and population increase didn’t match up- it’s possible. https://dc.urbanturf.com/articles/bl...t-decade/18622
New York is also similar to Boston. Where NYC has a ton of illegal basement apartments (which is why Hurricane Ida killed so many people there) where technically it’s not a new housing unit but now the less like 4 people live there.
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Old 05-01-2022, 11:44 AM
 
Location: Washington D.C.
13,727 posts, read 15,751,203 times
Reputation: 4081
Quote:
Originally Posted by BostonBornMassMade View Post
Can’t speak for btown but If I were mayor of Boston I’d want more housing units primarily to alleviate overcrowding of existing units and to increase demand and vacancies. I would build more housing with the idea of fewer people per unit, not necessarily with the goal to grow population as Boston is already very dense and has too many group living and multigenerational housing arrangements IMO.

Some metros like Philly Chicago and Baltimore added more housing units and population increase didn’t match up- it’s possible. https://dc.urbanturf.com/articles/bl...t-decade/18622
The most important factor in that article is this quote below:


“In DC proper, however, housing unit production did outpace population increases over the past decade.“

If anyone is wondering why a Class A 1-bedroom in NOMA was around $2,200 in 2011 and in 2022 is still around $2,200, look no further than that stat. There is a reason DC is so much cheaper than other gateway cities like NYC, San Fran, Boston, and LA. DC builds way more housing per capita than them and that will never change because the city is pro development.
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Old 05-01-2022, 11:46 AM
 
Location: Washington D.C.
13,727 posts, read 15,751,203 times
Reputation: 4081
Quote:
Originally Posted by BostonBornMassMade View Post
You can’t say for certain people will move in-or who’s many. None of us can predict the future. And even extrapolating for the future Boston is still more dense than DC in 20 years as three posters have already explain (JP, myself and btown)

You’re posts in general about DC focus primarily on pipelines and 2030- I wish you’d focus more of your efforts on DC and things we actually have proof of. There’s lots to be excited about or proud about in DC that actually exists today. Quite frankly I don’t care much (I do a little) about what DC has in the pipeline. Things can change in a heartbeat.
If you look at my post history from a decade ago, I was talking about the development pipeline back then too. Until DC has Paris level density, I will probably be talking about the development pipeline and because DC will never have Paris level density, I’ll probably be talking about the development pipeline till I die lol..

What can I say, I love development lol. I feel like cities are never done. Look at Hong Kong. For me, I want NYC level density with DC’s Black excellence. It’s a rare combination, but DC is the city with the best of both worlds.

I used to live here in a 694 sq. foot 1-bedroom apartment and I paid $2,200 in 2011.

https://www.apartments.com/avalon-fi...on-dc/xgd5z0n/

Rents have only increased $100 in a decade. It was extremely diverse. John Wall lived there while I was there too when he was drafted by the Wizards.

Last edited by MDAllstar; 05-01-2022 at 11:55 AM..
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Old 05-01-2022, 11:47 AM
 
Location: Baltimore
21,629 posts, read 12,754,191 times
Reputation: 11221
Quote:
Originally Posted by MDAllstar View Post
The most important factor in that article is this quote below:


“In DC proper, however, housing unit production did outpace population increases over the past decade.“

If anyone is wondering why a Class A 1-bedroom in NOMA was around $2,200 in 2011 and in 2022 is still around $2,200, look no further than that stat. There is a reason DC is so much cheaper than other gateway cities like NYC, San Fran, Boston, and LA. DC builds way more housing per capita than them and that will never change because the city is pro development.
Gateway city? DC has a fraction of the immigrants those cities have. That could be another factor. Your immigrants move to the suburbs first. But yes it’s very pro development but so is NYC. There’s a number of factors at play.
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Old 05-01-2022, 11:53 AM
 
14,020 posts, read 15,011,523 times
Reputation: 10466
Quote:
Originally Posted by MDAllstar View Post
The most important factor in that article is this quote below:


“In DC proper, however, housing unit production did outpace population increases over the past decade.“

If anyone is wondering why a Class A 1-bedroom in NOMA was around $2,200 in 2011 and in 2022 is still around $2,200, look no further than that stat. There is a reason DC is so much cheaper than other gateway cities like NYC, San Fran, Boston, and LA. DC builds way more housing per capita than them and that will never change because the city is pro development.
DC’s vast housing production is very good for the city. It very clearly makes it a better more comfortable city to live in. At one point literally 1/2 the people I know lived in an apartment with a makeshift bedroom that if listed could not be billed as a bedroom by MLS.

In DC because there is more housing people live in much nicer units but there isn’t necessarily more people. Because while there are more units there are fewer people sleeping in dining rooms and basements
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Old 05-01-2022, 11:58 AM
 
Location: Washington D.C.
13,727 posts, read 15,751,203 times
Reputation: 4081
Quote:
Originally Posted by BostonBornMassMade View Post
Gateway city? DC has a fraction of the immigrants those cities have. That could be another factor. Your immigrants move to the suburbs first. But yes it’s very pro development but so is NYC. There’s a number of factors at play.

That is not what gateway market means. Here is the definition of a gateway market.

https://www.mashvisor.com/blog/gateway-market/amp/

Gateway market is about $$$$ capital flowing into the market. They are very hard to get into from an investment standpoint. They command the most $$$$ typically in their office markets.
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Old 05-01-2022, 12:02 PM
 
8,858 posts, read 6,859,567 times
Reputation: 8666
That's "a" definition. Different outlets have different definitions. The CRE versions (which vary) aren't the same as the immigration versions (which also vary).
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