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I think pretending to know what DC is going to build in 2032 is equally a crapshoot.
Nope. Especially in DC or New York or London that’s not always true. You don’t know if say some NBC employee who does Sunday Shows in DC is gonna swoop up the Condo to stay on weekends then go back to living in NYC during the week. A duplex with two families being replaced with a small apartment with say 9 units building that’s bought up by rich college students who have the entire apartment to themselves might actually decrease the population.
You do not know if going from 2 units to 9 units drops the population from 10 to 9 or increases it from 3 to 23.
That’s literally why the Census (US and local) exists rather than just counting mailing
addresses
Another example is I know a neighborhood by a university where the entire block was originally 3 bedroom Triple Deckers. It was converted to college apartments. In every floor they turned the dining room into a living room and the living room into a bedroom.
So this whole block saw a 25% increase in bedrooms without any new construction or new units.
This is very true especially for major cities. Counting new units isn't that important for counting population. Inner Loop Houston has added way more units than people over the years, because wealthier singles or retired couples or some other demographic that isn't a poorer family of 5 (2 parents and 3 children), have move into the loop. The population has still grown, but nowhere as much as unit's of housing, so the city looks physically larger than the population numbers would tell you.
This is very true especially for major cities. Counting new units isn't that important for counting population. Inner Loop Houston has added way more units than people over the years, because wealthier singles or retired couples or some other demographic that isn't a poorer family of 5 (2 parents and 3 children), have move into the loop. The population has still grown, but nowhere as much as unit's of housing, so the city looks physically larger than the population numbers would tell you.
Since the 2020 census, DC has built 24,595 new housing units in 61.4 sq. miles. If we only use 1 person for every new unit (which is clearly not going to be the case), that is 24,595 new adults walking around in the urban core. There are currently 15,275 new housing units under construction in DC proper right now. Using the same methodology, that is a total of 39,870 new adults walking around the urban core of DC proper by 2025. This is only adding 1 adult per new housing unit built (100% unlikely) since the 2020 census. That is a minimum increase of 39,870 people in DC proper in only 61.4 sq. miles. Now, how likely is it that 39,870 new housing units will only produce 39,870 people?
To put this in perspective, for the last decade from 2010-2019, DC built 46,882 new housing units . If we are to believe the 2020 census data is accurate (highly unlikely 'DC had over 700k'), DC proper added 87,822 people from 2010-2020 (2010: 601,723, 2020: 689,545) while only adding 46,882 new housing units.
As of this year 2022, DC will have built 24,595 new housing units (half the entire housing unit production from 2010-2019) in only 2-years. By 2025, DC will have built 39,870 new housing units almost equaling the new housing built in DC over the last decade in a 5-year period. What do you honestly think is more realistic when predicting what the population will be in DC by 2030?
DC Proper Housing Unit Annual Delivery
2010: 1909 New Units
2011: 1943 New Units
2012: 3925 New Units
2013: 4545 New Units
2014: 6309 New Units
2015: 3355 New Units
2016: 5682 New Units
2017: 7035 New Units
2018: 6135 New Units
2019: 6044 New Units 2020: 9298 New Units
2021: 6231 New Units
2022: 9066 New Units (Projected)
Total Units Currently Under Construction in DC Proper: 15,275 New Units
I'll add Seattle. Various resources are here, including PDFs on the right. They differ a little between documents and the dashboard, based on definitions and timing.
New units - demo:
--1996-2005: 30,367 - 4,325
--2006-2015: 53,616 - 5,731
--2016-2022: 61,092 - 4,211
--Permitted but not yet built/finaled: 25,189 - 463
The last part includes about 6.3 years:
--2016: 7,595 - 607
--2017: 10,467 - 1,257
--2018: 10,494 - 708
--2019: 11,480 - 786
--2020: 6,860 - 407
--2021: 7,852 - 363
--2022 ytd: 6,344 - 93
This is all based on permits finaled, i.e. project complete and permit closed out.
I'll add Seattle. Various resources are here, including PDFs on the right. They differ a little between documents and the dashboard, based on definitions and timing.
New units - demo:
--1996-2005: 30,367 - 4,325 --2006-2015: 53,616 - 5,731
--2016-2022: 61,092 - 4,211
--Permitted but not yet built/finaled: 25,189 - 463
The last part includes about 6.3 years:
--2016: 7,595 - 607
--2017: 10,467 - 1,257
--2018: 10,494 - 708
--2019: 11,480 - 786
--2020: 6,860 - 407
--2021: 7,852 - 363
--2022 ytd: 6,344 - 93
This is all based on permits finaled, i.e. project complete and permit closed out.
That is an insane amount of construction. It is making a lot of sense now looking at where DC and Seattle were in the 2010 census which was basically even, and how Seattle absolutely destroyed DC in population gain.
Seattle
2010 Population: 608,660 people
2020 Population: 737,015 people
Difference: 128,355 new people
DC
2010 Population: 601,723 people
2020 Population: 689,545 people
Difference: 87,822 new people
Maybe with DC being late to the game in new housing unit construction, but seemingly exploding right now, DC can see a similar increase this decade? Who knows though? I guess we will see.
DC Proper Current Pipeline: 73,474 New Housing Units
Also, I noticed Seattle has a lot of demos? Are those mainly for single family homes? Almost all the new construction in DC proper is multi-family which is almost always on a vacant lot or commercial lot that didn't have residential prior.
A lot of it's tearing down a few houses or a small apartment building for a big apartment building. This is common in the 20% of the city that allows real density (btw, last year these areas crossed the 50% mark for total units in the city).
All three time periods also have had a fair amount of Hope IV or more recent public housing redos. I'd guess 2,000 to 3,000 of those units demo'd.
Another category is simple teardowns with 1:1 replacement, which are probably a few hundred per year. And just recently, it became easy to tear down a house and build a new one with one or two small accessory units, anywhere in the city, with the number depending on the lot size.
We've never had a ton of vacant lots per se. Seattle wasn't very dense originally but the land was mostly used. Any opportunities like former military bases and old factories are generally turned into parks or protected for industrial/port use. However there's a lot of of suburban-style commercial stuff to tear down, and houses are still common in the growth areas, which have expanded.
The ratio of new units to demos has improved, perhaps counterintuitively since easy sites are getting harder to find. But we've upzoned a fair amount, and we've adjusted the code to (unintentionally?) encourage micro housing with little or no parking, so now a 5,000 sf house lot might get a six- or eight-story building with 40-50 little units instead of a four-story building with 20 bigger ones.
A lot of it's tearing down a few houses or a small apartment building for a big apartment building. This is common in the 20% of the city that allows real density (btw, last year these areas crossed the 50% mark for total units in the city).
All three time periods also have had a fair amount of Hope IV or more recent public housing redos. I'd guess 2,000 to 3,000 of those units demo'd.
Another category is simple teardowns with 1:1 replacement, which are probably a few hundred per year. And just recently, it became easy to tear down a house and build a new one with one or two small accessory units, anywhere in the city, with the number depending on the lot size.
We've never had a ton of vacant lots per se. Seattle wasn't very dense originally but the land was mostly used. Any opportunities like former military bases and old factories are generally turned into parks or protected for industrial/port use. However there's a lot of of suburban-style commercial stuff to tear down, and houses are still common in the growth areas, which have expanded.
The ratio of new units to demos has improved, perhaps counterintuitively since easy sites are getting harder to find. But we've upzoned a fair amount, and we've adjusted the code to (unintentionally?) encourage micro housing with little or no parking, so now a 5,000 sf house lot might get a six- or eight-story building with 40-50 little units instead of a four-story building with 20 bigger ones.
Interesting, thanks for providing clarity on that. DC gained 137,000 people in the original diamond at 102 sq. miles including Arlington, VA and Alexandria, VA, but I don’t have the total unit count delivery for those jurisdictions. I know Arlington and Alexandria are building way more now than at anytime in the last decade. They too have cranes everywhere. It would be easier to paint the future picture for the entire original DC diamond if I had that data. I knows it’s mainly multifamily, but that’s all I know.
If DC, Arlington VA, and Alexandria VA could manage to add about 200,000 people from 2020-2030, the 102 sq. mile diamond would have a population density of 12,618 people per sq. mile with a population around 1,287,000 people.
Last edited by MDAllstar; 05-05-2022 at 10:22 PM..
Seattle needs 839,900 people to cross 10,000/sm. In 2020 we were 737,015, so we just need 101,985 more. So far so good.
City leadership and code changes will be interesting to watch. We do some things right (the general trend is upzoning, which might be gathering steam) and other things badly (piling on fees and landlord hurdles). Demand has surged enough to cover the added rents required, so far. I'm worried about this.
Really what matters is buildings that open up several months before 4/1/30 so they have time to gradually fill, so let's say 11/1/29 on average. That means groundbreakings by 2027 or early 2028 for the most part.
On the positive side, the City will likely upzone substantially in 2024 if not earlier. That's when we're redoing our comprehensive plan (the One Seattle Plan) which will be partnered with related rezones. In advance of that, the State is performing a major update to its 20-year population projections by county this year, which will filter down to city level. Cities need to accommodate 20 years of theoretical growth. We've filled much of the growth anticipated by past upzones, so it's time for more room. There's a good chance we'll liberalize SFR zoning (after recently opening most sites to accessory units at least) and we'll certainly expand the breadth and intensity of the "urban village" zones that allow real density.
I spent a little time in Arlington and DC a year(?) before the COVID times. Some impressive density there.
Seattle needs 839,900 people to cross 10,000/sm. In 2020 we were 737,015, so we just need 101,985 more. So far so good.
City leadership and code changes will be interesting to watch. We do some things right (the general trend is upzoning, which might be gathering steam) and other things badly (piling on fees and landlord hurdles). Demand has surged enough to cover the added rents required, so far. I'm worried about this.
Really what matters is buildings that open up several months before 4/1/30 so they have time to gradually fill, so let's say 11/1/29 on average. That means groundbreakings by 2027 or early 2028 for the most part.
On the positive side, the City will likely upzone substantially in 2024 if not earlier. That's when we're redoing our comprehensive plan (the One Seattle Plan) which will be partnered with related rezones. In advance of that, the State is performing a major update to its 20-year population projections by county this year, which will filter down to city level. Cities need to accommodate 20 years of theoretical growth. We've filled much of the growth anticipated by past upzones, so it's time for more room. There's a good chance we'll liberalize SFR zoning (after recently opening most sites to accessory units at least) and we'll certainly expand the breadth and intensity of the "urban village" zones that allow real density.
I spent a little time in Arlington and DC a year(?) before the COVID times. Some impressive density there.
The comp plan rewrite should provide substantial capacity for Seattle to grow in the future. If they allow high-rises all over the city, Seattle could become very urban in the future.
DC is also rewriting the comprehensive plan beginning in 2025 which should provide substantial capacity to grow more too. The last comp plan update finished in 2021 providing a 15% increase in housing capacity across the city. Hopefully, the next rewrite will provide some serious additional capacity like another 35% maybe which combined with the last update would allow a 50% increase in citywide housing from a year ago.
If DC wants to get past 1,000,000 people maybe topping out at about 1,250,000 people with a density of 20,358 people per sq. mile before height limits have to be raised, it will need that housing capacity.
On another note, I found the Arlington, VA data. The Amazon HQ2 impact is clear looking at the annual data over the last decade to now. Please see below:
2021 Arlington VA Units Approved (Not Under Construction)
Multi-family: 9,678 units
Single Family: 3 units
2021 Arlington VA Units Under Construction
Multi-family: 1,251 units
Single Family: 311 units
Arlington, VA added 31,016 people from 2010-2020 while producing 13,474 new housing units by the year 2019 which we can use as a benchmark to allow lease up prior to the 2020 census deadline. In the last 2-years since the census, Arlington has added 4,319 new units with 1,562 units currently under construction, but there are 9,681 units approved (not under construction) which shows the Amazon HQ2 impact. It will be interesting to see the population gain over the next decade compared to the last.
Last edited by MDAllstar; 05-06-2022 at 12:55 AM..
Arlington is what I hope Bellevue will become. It's the US king of TODs. Bellevue had 151,354 in 33.46 square miles in 2020 (4,538/sm, less than half Arlington), up over 24% from 2010. Transit commute share by residents was 10.8% in the five-year ACS, less than half Arlington's. But rail will arrive in early 2024, Downtown is exploding, and they're being fairly progressive with TODs and other upzones in commercial areas. Of course they're upzoning those areas because they don't want their required growth to infringe upon houses, but they also realize that they need a ton of housing to deal with the influx of jobs.
Seattle has a pathological dislike of highrises outside greater Downtown, and they're only allowed in even a limited part of that. The only exceptions are the University District, which had a few in the 70s but then didn't allow new ones until just recently (resulting in a substantial wave now), and a small TOD site next to the new Northgate Station, which is actually ending up lowrise too. Otherwise, there are a few from the 60s-70s dotted around in places where the zoning was quickly lowered in response.
Further, highrises are expensive here, and woodframes up to eight stories (2+6) are relatively cheap. Some of that's our limited floor areas and facade widths over certain heights, which don't allow efficient Arlington-style slabs. I suspect some is seismic codes. But most of all, we can pack a lot of density into 4/6/8 stories of woodframe at far lower prices. With 170,000 completed or currently permitted units since 1996, I'd guess at least 120,000 are woodframe multifamily in the 4-8-story range, mostly 6. These are starting to dominate in the 20% of the city that allows density.
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