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Denver without the airport would be 102 sq miles with a population of about 715,000. MSP population at 105 sq. miles is about 740,000. They would be very similiar.
Denver without the airport would be 102 sq miles with a population of about 715,000. MSP population at 105 sq. miles is about 740,000. They would be very similiar.
MSP, Denver & Baltimore are all within spitting distance of each other based off of 2020 census.
Denver has 715k in 102 sq. mi - 7010/ppsm
MSP has 741k in 106 sq.mi - 6990/ppsm
Baltimore has 718k in 108 sq.mi - 6648/ppsm
*Note this doesn't reflect weighted density* Specific census tracts will vary in density due to built form/development between each city, nor do the listed land areas take into account things like logistical/industrial zones, ports, park/recreational space, etc.. which would alter overall density very quickly.
DC, SF, Miami & Boston would match Philly's population even at 134 sq. miles. Density/built enviornment doesn't magically stop becuase political boundaries do.
The next closest cities are Seattle & San Diego, neither of which reach 900k in 100 sq. mi. MSP has a shade over ~730k edging out Baltimore's ~700k.
*Denver would techincally split MSP & Baltimore if the airport was excluded, but then you'd have to also adjust non-residential usage in the cities for fairness. I'd argue both are denser objectively in real life.
San Francisco, once you include the east bay, sure. Miami? Definitely not. Boston would not be far away but still around 100k smaller than Philly in 134.1 sq miles. DC is already less dense than Philly despite having only 61 square miles and increasing it to 134.1 sq miles would only further increase the gap. The last part of my post that you responded to already addresses what you're saying about density not completely failing off for the smaller boundary cities.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nephi215
With that said, every city on the list has legit claim to being among the most urban and dense cities in the U.S.
However, it's is definitely a fair statement to say that the smaller cities positional ranking over the larger land area cities of Chicago, Philly and LA on the list are definitely positively effected relative to their smaller size.
San Francisco, once you include the east bay, sure. Miami? Definitely not. Boston would not be far away but still around 100k smaller than Philly in 134.1 sq miles. DC is already less dense than Philly despite having only 61 square miles and increasing it to 134.1 sq miles would only further increase the gap. The last part of my post that you responded to already addresses what you're saying about density not completely failing off for the smaller boundary cities.
However, it's is definitely a fair statement to say that the smaller cities positional ranking over the larger land area cities of Chicago, Philly and LA on the list are definitely positively effected relative to their smaller size.
You are correct, but DC will most likely pass Philadelphia by 2030.
DC’s original diamond that includes Arlington, VA and Alexandria, VA was 100 sq. miles. Today DC, Arlington, and Alexandria make up 102.33 sq. miles with a 2020 population of 1,087,655 people. That places the density of the original DC diamond at 10,629 people per sq. mile for the 2020 census.
You are correct, but DC will most likely pass Philadelphia by 2030.
Thats the problem dealing with hypotheticals considering I can simply state that it most likely won't be true. This is especially true considering uncertainty in city projections for all cities in context of the post pandemic. Also, as things hopefully stabilize in the post pandemic, there's no indication that would be true considering Philly also had growth that was picking up steam albeit its growth rate was slower in percentage than DC.
Thats the problem dealing with hypotheticals considering I can simply state that it most likely won't be true. This is especially true considering uncertainty in city projections for all cities in context of the post pandemic. Also, as things hopefully stabilize in the post pandemic, there's no indication that would be true considering Philly also had growth that was picking up steam albeit its growth rate was slower in percentage than DC.
I'm only going off new net housing unit production in the DC area versus Philadelphia area. That is the only thing that drives population growth in a neighborhood. If you don't build new housing, new people can't move into the neighborhood.
In the 137 sq. miles posted for DC, the new net housing construction in DC probably leads Philadelphia 5 to 1. Between Amazon HQ2 in Arlington, Va and Alexandria, VA and DC proper building 6,000 - 8,000 units annually, just the DC diamond alone could add 150,000 - 175,000 new people. The surrounding area is also building a lot of new development so the odds are DC will pass Philadelphia, but we won't know for sure until 2030.
I'm only going off new net housing unit production in the DC area versus Philadelphia area. That is the only thing that drives population growth in a neighborhood. If you don't build new housing, new people can't move into the neighborhood.
That's not necessarily true if units are much more likely to be occupied by individuals, as opposed to couples or families. The demographic makeup is a pretty big factor, too.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MDAllstar
In the 137 sq. miles posted for DC, the new net housing construction in DC probably leads Philadelphia 5 to 1. Between Amazon HQ2 in Arlington, Va and Alexandria, VA and DC proper building 6,000 - 8,000 units annually, just the DC diamond alone could add 150,000 - 175,000 new people. The surrounding area is also building a lot of new development so the odds are DC will pass Philadelphia, but we won't know for sure until 2030.
If not 2030, then soon after I'm sure.
As the past 2 years should be an indication to anyone, trends are very easily upended. The rest of the 2020s are likely to be the most unpredictable yet for big cities.
Also, Philadelphians kept hearing how so many other cities were growing so much faster and had such amazing urban economies, etc. etc. in the 2010s, yet, as an example, DC proper's population rose marginally higher as of the 2020 Census (+87,822 in DC versus +77,791 in Philadelphia).
That's not necessarily true if units are much more likely to be occupied by individuals, as opposed to couples or families. The demographic makeup is a pretty big factor, too.
As the past 2 years should be an indication to anyone, trends are very easily upended. The rest of the 2020s are likely to be the most unpredictable yet for big cities.
Also, Philadelphians kept hearing how so many other cities were growing so much faster and had such amazing urban economies, etc. etc. in the 2010s, yet, as an example, DC proper's population rose marginally higher as of the 2020 Census (+87,822 in DC versus +77,791 in Philadelphia).
That's 13% faster growth, not 500% faster growth.
You should probably be counting the growth within the 137 sq. mile area for the last 10 years if you're trying to make that comparison. DC gained that amount in 61.4 sq. miles while Philadelphia gained less people in 134 sq. miles.
DC is growing faster than every major city in the U.S. right now based on this below. The city has gained back everything it lost an has exploded since 2020.
Rents increased 16% across Class-A and Class-B apartments throughout the metro area, and vacancies either remained the same or declined in every single submarket in D.C., suburban Maryland and Northern Virginia, according to Delta Associates President Will Rich.
“Those rent increases are unprecedented in the 30-plus years we've been tracking the market in Washington,” Rich said.
The stabilized vacancy rate across all classes of apartments in the D.C. area fell to 2.5% last quarter, down 190 basis points from one year earlier, according to Delta Associates. For Class-A apartments specifically, the vacancy rate fell 170 basis points to 3.2%.
"Some of the submarkets within D.C. seeing the highest growth are those rebounding from a pandemic-induced decline in renters. The submarket that includes Capitol Hill, Capitol Riverfront and Southwest led the metro area in absorption, with more units absorbed than all of suburban Maryland, according to Delta."
“Developers are always looking for the next hottest neighborhood,” Rich said. “Now that the Capitol Riverfront area is getting close to build-out, there's still new opportunities.”
"Many of those new opportunities are in the NoMa/H Street submarket, which led D.C. in deliveries with 1,641 units. The 36-month development pipeline in NoMa/H Street is also the highest in the District: 5,556 of the 15,810 units in D.C.’s pipeline are in NoMa/H street."
"That job market resurgence is occurring in D.C., where hard-hit employment sectors like hospitality are adding jobs the fastest, according to Delta Associates, despite still operating with leaner payrolls than pre-pandemic. The government and professional services sectors have already added jobs in the area above their pre-pandemic levels.
Meanwhile, Delta Associates found that the D.C. area as a whole added 133,200 jobs in 2021, the highest number ever recorded."
DC is growing faster than all dense U.S. cities right now and as fast as sunbelt cities. The city has gained back everything it lost an has exploded since 2020.
....
Meanwhile, Delta Associates found that the D.C. area as a whole added 133,200 jobs in 2021, the highest number ever recorded."
Bear in mind that the explosion in the apartment market right now is a direct response to the lack of for-sale housing inventory and very minimal growth in that sector, so it's not necessarily added population growth. In many, if not most, cases, it's people who have been displaced from a whole other sector of housing that has basically collapsed in being attainable to normal, middle-class people. It does not set a good precedent to see such a big shift to a renter population, either, but that's a whole other conversation.
Also, all big cities/metros have certainly regained most of COVID-related job posses at this point, although not all. According to the BLS, the DC metro remains down about 100K from its pre-pandemic peak and DC proper is still down around 40K.
But once those jobs/residents are regained, there's no sugar-coating the fact that the path forward for big cities is going to be rockier than before the pandemic. That's painfully obvious. The more that's acknowledged, the easier it will be to adjust policy-wise.
Bear in mind that the explosion in the apartment market right now is a direct response to the lack of for-sale housing inventory and very minimal growth in that sector, so it's not necessarily added population growth. In many, if not most, cases, it's people who have been displaced from a whole other sector of housing that has basically collapsed in being attainable to normal, middle-class people. It does not set a good precedent to see such a big shift to a renter population, either, but that's a whole other conversation.
Also, all big cities/metros have certainly regained most of COVID-related job posses at this point, although not all. According to the BLS, the DC metro remains down about 100K from its pre-pandemic peak and DC proper is still down around 40K.
But once those jobs/residents are regained, there's no sugar-coating the fact that the path forward for big cities is going to be rockier than before the pandemic. That's painfully obvious. The more that's acknowledged, the easier it will be to adjust policy-wise.
Is that true for cities with sunbelt growth? DC proper's apartment market isn't performing any different than it has since 2010. The absorption is the same as it always has been. I was just pointing out that it had returned.
DC has been growing from people moving from NYC, Boston, Philadelphia, and Baltimore for the last 10 years. The rents in DC are relatively cheap when factoring salaries and compared to other gateway cities like NYC, Boston, LA, and San Fran. People continue to move into DC. Do you think people will stop moving south? I'm sure it could happen, but the trends seem to suggest otherwise.
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