Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
This is very confusing. Who are you talking to? Who said it was? You’re talking about now. Did someone disagree with you? It’s not as dense as Philly currently either.
On a side note, Chicago and Boston’s growth aren’t concentrated like DC so the comparison is pretty bad. DC is building all this growth in about 1 sq. mile to the south and 1 sq. mile to the north. That’s why the peak density for these census block groups are so high.
That’s just verifiably false. You can see by the fact that Ward 6 and Ward 2 (fastest growing wards) only have about 40% of the total growth from 2010-2020 and those two wards are 6.9 sq miles. Throw in Ward 1 you got 14.4 sq miles and ~60% of total population growth.
Meanwhile 11.4 sq miles of Chicago contained 117% of its total growth. Throw in Lake View and you got ~131% of citywide growth in 14.9 sq miles.
So the inter 14.9 sq miles of Chicago gained 4600 ppsm, the inner 14.4 sq miles of DC gained 3,740. So not only is DC less dense, but Chicagos central neighborhoods are distancing themselves from DC’s
Boston I’m just not going to do because it’s a pain and doesn’t have easy data.
That’s just verifiably false. You can see by the fact that Ward 6 and Ward 2 (fastest growing wards) only have about 40% of the total growth from 2010-2020 and those two wards are 6.9 sq miles. Throw in Ward 1 you got 14.4 sq miles and ~60% of total population growth.
Meanwhile 11.4 sq miles of Chicago contained 117% of its total growth. Throw in Lake View and you got ~131% of citywide growth in 14.9 sq miles.
So the inter 14.9 sq miles of Chicago gained 4600 ppsm, the inner 14.4 sq miles of DC gained 3,740. So not only is DC less dense, but Chicagos central neighborhoods are distancing themselves from DC’s
Boston I’m just not going to do because it’s a pain and doesn’t have easy data.
You really don't understand this yet, do you? The population for Navy Yard, Union Market, NOMA, Northwest One, Waterfront Station, The Wharf, and Buzzard Point were not there in 2020. You can look at the census tracts and see that. It will register in 2030, not 2020. The massive office-to-residential conversions happening in downtown DC's office ghetto also will not register till 2030.
Downtown DC could see 500 to 1,000 units per year over the next 10 years in office-to-residential conversions according to John J. Falcicchio, Deputy Mayor for Planning and Economic Development. That's a potential 10,000 units downtown in the next 10-years. Using a standard estimate of 250 units per building, that is 40 new residential buildings downtown with first floor retail.
"Mayor Bowser's budget also includes investments in office-to-residential conversions with affordable housing, which could lead to the conversions of 500 to 1,000 residential units per year downtown over the next 10 years. #DistrictofComebacks #36000by2025"
Since the 2020 census, DC has built 24,595 new housing units in 61.4 sq. miles. If we only use 1 person for every new unit (which is clearly not going to be the case), that is 24,595 new adults walking around in the urban core. There are currently 15,275 new housing units under construction in DC proper right now. Using the same methodology, that is a total of 39,870 new adults walking around the urban core of DC proper by 2025. This is only adding 1 adult per new housing unit built (100% unlikely) since the 2020 census. That is a minimum increase of 39,870 people in DC proper in only 61.4 sq. miles by 2025, but likely closer to 59,805 people by 2025 using a 1.5 household size. This isn't counting any natural increase, just new housing that didn't exist before.
To put this in perspective, for the last decade from 2010-2019, DC built 46,882 new housing units . If we are to believe the 2020 census data is accurate (highly unlikely 'DC had over 700k'), DC proper added 87,822 people from 2010-2020 (2010: 601,723, 2020: 689,545) while only adding 46,882 new housing units.
As of this year 2022, DC will have built 24,595 new housing units (half the entire housing unit production from 2010-2019) in only 2-years after the 2020 census. By 2025, DC will have built 39,870 new housing units almost equaling the new housing built in DC over the "ENTIRE" last decade in a 5-year period. What do you honestly think is more realistic when predicting what the population will be in DC by 2030?
DC Proper Housing Unit Annual Delivery
2010: 1909 New Units
2011: 1943 New Units
2012: 3925 New Units
2013: 4545 New Units
2014: 6309 New Units
2015: 3355 New Units
2016: 5682 New Units
2017: 7035 New Units
2018: 6135 New Units
2019: 6044 New Units 2020: 9298 New Units
2021: 6231 New Units
2022: 9066 New Units (Projected)
Total Units Currently Under Construction in DC Proper: 15,275 New Units
Please post the construction numbers for Chicago from 2020-2025. If you don't have them, we can stop this discussion because this entire exchange has been about new construction only.
Last edited by MDAllstar; 05-11-2022 at 01:53 PM..
On a side note, Chicago and Boston’s growth aren’t concentrated like DC so the comparison is pretty bad. DC is building all this growth in about 1 sq. mile to the south and 1 sq. mile to the north. That’s why the peak density for these census block groups are so high.
wait a minute now....
We're being told DC growth is concentrated? On every thread, you are talking about DC growing city-wide, especially in wards 7 and 8, and how Boston is only growing in downtown and central areas. Now the narrative has changed?
We're being told DC growth is concentrated? On every thread, you are talking about DC growing city-wide, especially in wards 7 and 8, and how Boston is only growing in downtown and central areas. Now the narrative has changed?
You really don't understand this yet, do you? The population for Navy Yard, Union Market, NOMA, Northwest One, Waterfront Station, The Wharf, and Buzzard Point were not there in 2020. You can look at the census tracts and see that. It will register in 2030, not 2020. The massive office-to-residential conversions happening in downtown DC's office ghetto also will not register till 2030.
Downtown DC could see 500 to 1,000 units per year over the next 10 years in office-to-residential conversions according to John J. Falcicchio, Deputy Mayor for Planning and Economic Development. That's a potential 10,000 units downtown in the next 10-years. Using a standard estimate of 250 units per building, that is 40 new residential buildings downtown with first floor retail.
"Mayor Bowser's budget also includes investments in office-to-residential conversions with affordable housing, which could lead to the conversions of 500 to 1,000 residential units per year downtown over the next 10 years. #DistrictofComebacks #36000by2025"
Since the 2020 census, DC has built 24,595 new housing units in 61.4 sq. miles. If we only use 1 person for every new unit (which is clearly not going to be the case), that is 24,595 new adults walking around in the urban core. There are currently 15,275 new housing units under construction in DC proper right now. Using the same methodology, that is a total of 39,870 new adults walking around the urban core of DC proper by 2025. This is only adding 1 adult per new housing unit built (100% unlikely) since the 2020 census. That is a minimum increase of 39,870 people in DC proper in only 61.4 sq. miles by 2025, but likely closer to 59,805 people by 2025 using a 1.5 household size. This isn't counting any natural increase, just new housing that didn't exist before.
To put this in perspective, for the last decade from 2010-2019, DC built 46,882 new housing units . If we are to believe the 2020 census data is accurate (highly unlikely 'DC had over 700k'), DC proper added 87,822 people from 2010-2020 (2010: 601,723, 2020: 689,545) while only adding 46,882 new housing units.
As of this year 2022, DC will have built 24,595 new housing units (half the entire housing unit production from 2010-2019) in only 2-years after the 2020 census. By 2025, DC will have built 39,870 new housing units almost equaling the new housing built in DC over the "ENTIRE" last decade in a 5-year period. What do you honestly think is more realistic when predicting what the population will be in DC by 2030?
DC Proper Housing Unit Annual Delivery
2010: 1909 New Units
2011: 1943 New Units
2012: 3925 New Units
2013: 4545 New Units
2014: 6309 New Units
2015: 3355 New Units
2016: 5682 New Units
2017: 7035 New Units
2018: 6135 New Units
2019: 6044 New Units 2020: 9298 New Units
2021: 6231 New Units
2022: 9066 New Units (Projected)
Total Units Currently Under Construction in DC Proper: 15,275 New Units
Please post the construction numbers for Chicago from 2020-2025. If you don't have them, we can stop this discussion because this entire exchange has been about new construction only.
According to the Census there was population in 2020 that’s no longer there today
To make this even easier for you. These buildings below didn't have anybody living in them in April 2020 for the census. These are a tiny fraction of the buildings being built in this area. I don't think I can make it much clearer than this. You keep talking about the census when they would have to be full by April 2020 to count. Unless you want to talk about these neighborhoods in 2030 when the people moving into these buildings will be counted, I don't think we have anything else to talk about here. This has always been about the future for me. You, however, have been talking about the past.
To make this even easier for you. These buildings below didn't have anybody living in them in April 2020 for the census. These are a tiny fraction of the buildings being built in this area. I don't think I can make it much clearer than this. You keep talking about the census when they would have to be full by April 2020 to count.
DC lost 19,000 people in the 18 months following the census. So yes individual buildings have people now but the idea on a neighborhood scale DC saw huge strides in density is just very unlikely. (And that’s also true for literally every city)
And was almost certainly most of the population drop was concentrated in the Young professional no kids demographic that fills up 1bd/2bd downtown apartments
We're being told DC growth is concentrated? On every thread, you are talking about DC growing city-wide, especially in wards 7 and 8, and how Boston is only growing in downtown and central areas. Now the narrative has changed?
City A has 10 blocks of open flat vacant land with nothing on it.
City B has 10 blocks that are fully built with only infill development opportunities.
Which of these cities has the highest potential for development in the aforementioned blocks?
Come on bro, our discussions about Ward 7 and Ward 8 are also open vacant land. Nothing we have been talking about is infill. That's why the production of housing is so high to begin with in DC. It's a blank slate. Haven't we already agreed on that?
Last edited by MDAllstar; 05-11-2022 at 02:37 PM..
DC lost 19,000 people in the 18 months following the census. So yes individual buildings have people now but the idea on a neighborhood scale DC saw huge strides in density is just very unlikely. (And that’s also true for literally every city)
And was almost certainly most of the population drop was concentrated in the Young professional no kids demographic that fills up 1bd/2bd downtown apartments
Wait, are you saying people moved out of a building that was under construction?
Last edited by MDAllstar; 05-11-2022 at 03:05 PM..
2021-2022 DC Proper Class A Multi-Family Annual Performance
DC Proper Annual Class A Absorption: 7,408 units
DC Proper Annual Class A Unit Deliveries: 4,180 new units
DC Proper Class A Projected New Unit Deliveries Next 12 Months: 6,867 new units
DC Proper Current Units Under Construction: 15,810 new units
People have been saying DC was going to slow down for over a decade. Back in 2012, DC was not going to continue to boom because government spending was being cut. Back in 2020, DC wasn't going to continue to boom because COVID-19. What is the reason DC will stop booming now?
DC is growing faster than every major city in the U.S. right now based on this below. The city has gained back everything it lost an has exploded since 2020.
Rents increased 16% across Class-A and Class-B apartments throughout the metro area, and vacancies either remained the same or declined in every single submarket in D.C., suburban Maryland and Northern Virginia, according to Delta Associates President Will Rich.
“Those rent increases are unprecedented in the 30-plus years we've been tracking the market in Washington,” Rich said.
The stabilized vacancy rate across all classes of apartments in the D.C. area fell to 2.5% last quarter, down 190 basis points from one year earlier, according to Delta Associates. For Class-A apartments specifically, the vacancy rate fell 170 basis points to 3.2%.
"Some of the submarkets within D.C. seeing the highest growth are those rebounding from a pandemic-induced decline in renters. The submarket that includes Capitol Hill, Capitol Riverfront and Southwest led the metro area in absorption, with more units absorbed than all of suburban Maryland, according to Delta."
“Developers are always looking for the next hottest neighborhood,” Rich said. “Now that the Capitol Riverfront area is getting close to build-out, there's still new opportunities.”
"Many of those new opportunities are in the NoMa/H Street submarket, which led D.C. in deliveries with 1,641 units. The 36-month development pipeline in NoMa/H Street is also the highest in the District: 5,556 of the 15,810 units in D.C.’s pipeline are in NoMa/H street."
"That job market resurgence is occurring in D.C., where hard-hit employment sectors like hospitality are adding jobs the fastest, according to Delta Associates, despite still operating with leaner payrolls than pre-pandemic. The government and professional services sectors have already added jobs in the area above their pre-pandemic levels.
Meanwhile, Delta Associates found that the D.C. area as a whole added 133,200 jobs in 2021, the highest number ever recorded."
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
