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Interesting numbers from the Official US 2020 census
Thanks for pulling that again. I think it's an excellent reminder of where population density stands today at a reasonably high threshold.
I think the point stands that the 2020s are going to be a funky decade for big cities, and I don't think any large city should expect the same population growth of the 2010s. There are just too many economic and demographic headwinds right now, worldwide, for that kind of growth to continue to occur.
Maybe I'm wrong, and we'll get massive waves of immigration within the next 10 years due to political instability abroad and climate change. Who knows? But right now, it's hard to see a huge shift towards big cities coming back any time soon.
Thanks for pulling that again. I think it's an excellent reminder of where population density stands today at a reasonably high threshold.
I think the point stands that the 2020s are going to be a funky decade for big cities, and I don't think any large city should expect the same population growth of the 2010s. There are just too many economic and demographic headwinds right now, worldwide, for that kind of growth to continue to occur.
Maybe I'm wrong, and we'll get massive waves of immigration within the next 10 years due to political instability abroad and climate change. Who knows? But right now, it's hard to see a huge shift towards big cities coming back any time soon.
Yea I'm on board with this.
Additionally- there's no big millennial wave like you had back in 2010 full of young college grads. Those youth populations -typical urban pioneers- are way down.
There isn't the affordability like coming out of the recession that lots of cities had (even though it didn't feel it at the time).
Also, suburbs in 2010 didn't have Uber, and everything couldn't be delivered to your door, the suburbs were also a little less diverse. Now you can get convenience, cosmopolitan diversity, and urban-like amenities in suburban communities all over the country.
Additionally- there's no big millennial wave like you had back in 2010 full of young college grads. Those youth populations -typical urban pioneers- are way down.
There isn't the affordability like coming out of the recession that lots of cities had (even though it didn't feel it at the time).
Also, suburbs in 2010 didn't have Uber, and everything couldn't be delivered to your door, the suburbs were also a little less diverse. Now you can get convenience, cosmopolitan diversity, and urban-like amenities in suburban communities all over the country.
I don't want to debate the future because I can't guarantee it. Whatever happens will happen without my input so lol...
Something that did intrigue me yesterday is this block group below which will most certainly be one of the many Block groups in DC to surpass 200,000 people per sq. mile in density.
"MRP Realty, CSG Urban Partners and Taylor Adams Associates are expected to redevelop the prime site near Union Station with 1,200 apartments. Closing on the deal, the subject of nearly a decade of bidding and negotiation, is 'imminent,' DCHA Executive Director Brenda Donald said. She didn't disclose what proceeds DCHA expects from the sale. The 0.8-acre plot has an assessed value of $31.3 million according to the D.C. Office of Tax and Revenue.
The headquarters redevelopment has been dogged by criticism, especially around its future affordability — at last count, 244 of the 1,200 units would be affordable, with at least half set aside for households earning no more than 30% of the area median income, though the details are still subject to change. The project has also seen major changes over time — for example, the original plan was for DCHA to remain on site in a new 80,000-square-foot building to be constructed by the winning bidder."
The current block group has a current population density of 116,131 people per square mile. A 1,200 unit development will be breaking ground here soon which will push the population density way past 200,000 people per square mile. If we use a low 1.3 people per unit, that will be 1,560 new people on the block. Around 30% of the units will be deeply affordable so the average household size will be larger than 1.3 most likely, but we can use that. That is a staggering population density of 260,909 people per sq. mile.
Wow .. Boston's Avalon North Station has over 503 units crammed on to 35,210 Sq feet of land. Assuming 1.3 people per unit that works out to a population density of 517,741.71 people per square mile. That's nearly 10x the density of Manhattan!!! Nashua Street Residences | Boston Planning & Development Agency
Wow .. Boston's Avalon North Station has over 503 units crammed on to 35,210 Sq feet of land. Assuming 1.3 people per unit that works out to a population density of 517,741.71 people per square mile. That's nearly 10x the density of Manhattan!!! Nashua Street Residences | Boston Planning & Development Agency
Only took 13 years February 2004 from February 2017- LOI to construction completion. Smfh.
Wow .. Boston's Avalon North Station has over 503 units crammed on to 35,210 Sq feet of land. Assuming 1.3 people per unit that works out to a population density of 517,741.71 people per square mile. That's nearly 10x the density of Manhattan!!! Nashua Street Residences | Boston Planning & Development Agency
There will be about 30,000 housing units at full buildout in the NOMA, Union Market, Northwest One area. Your sarcasm is born out of ignorance!
Last edited by MDAllstar; 05-12-2022 at 04:34 PM..
The 3 phase South Station Tower project is just completing the foundation for the 677.6' main tower--like ~58 yrs after the first (horrific btw) renders, and 32 years after the cool, 840' spire-y tower thingy, and much of the foundation was laid in the Big Dig/multi leveled Amtrak/Commuter Rail/ Ted Williams/ and Red Line tunnels, etc, etc. *We could show the 60s puke/pomo renders, but there might be children present.
Boston takes 10~20 years to build 180' residential highrises, after the nimby's extortion artists finally pull their open palms back in the planet's slowest moving nebula.
**Boston is basically the #1 market in the country post pandemic, blowing the doors off on office/lab leases..... but DC is also performing well in the market. Honorable mentions? NYC: even if the 1B-star-masses black hole isn't precisely at this moment devouring the usual star clusters....
Re; Boston: Wu better move quick to bring approvals for what mid-rise/ highrise proposals remain in the shrinking TOD menu, and get them to the shovels--or face even greater woeful housing shortages/starts in the final years of her term.
**cue the naysayers: the market continues to devour millions of sq ft with reasonable speed. How long will the trend keep up? Not super optimistic.
Lastly, DC getting so big can't and won't prove great for the country (imo). Examples: Russia/ Mexico, etc.....
Last edited by odurandina; 05-13-2022 at 04:58 PM..
The 3 phase South Station Tower project is just completing the foundation for the 677.6' main tower--like ~58 yrs after the first (horrific btw) renders, and 32 years after the cool, 840' spire-y tower thingy, and much of the foundation was laid in the Big Dig/multi leveled Amtrak/Commuter Rail/ Ted Williams/ and Red Line tunnels, etc, etc. *We could show the 60s puke/pomo renders, but there might be children present.
Boston takes 10~20 years to build 180' residential highrises, after the nimby's extortion artists finally pull their open palms back in the planet's slowest moving nebula.
**Boston is basically the #1 market in the country post pandemic, blowing the doors off on office/lab leases..... but DC is also performing well in the market. Honorable mentions? NYC: even if the 1B-star-masses black hole isn't precisely at this moment devouring the usual star clusters....
Re; Boston: Wu better move quick to bring approvals for what mid-rise/ highrise proposals remain in the shrinking TOD menu, and get them to the shovels--or face even greater woeful housing shortages/starts in the final years of her term.
**cue the naysayers: the market continues to devour millions of sq ft with reasonable speed. How long will the trend keep up? Not super optimistic. Lastly, DC getting so big can't and won't prove great for the country (imo). Examples: Russia/ Mexico, etc.....
Paris has 2,165,423 people in 41 sq. miles with a population density of 53k people per square mile. What is wrong with DC becoming a much larger and denser city?
Only took 13 years February 2004 from February 2017- LOI to construction completion. Smfh.
The density of that block group in Boston after construction should be around 23,951 people per sq. miles with a combined total population of 982 people using jpdiva's 1.3 person per household measurement for the new building.
West End (Boston)
Land Area: 0.041 square miles
Current Population: 328 people
Current Population Density: 8,036.3 people per square miles
Projected Population: 982 people Projected Population Density: 23,951 people per square miles
Meanwhile, he/she is diminishing a block group in DC that will have 2,097 housing units. If it was in Boston, Chicago, New York, Philadelphia, LA, San Fran, or even London, it would be celebrated, but because it is DC, it isn't significant? Because it is not two twin 100-story towers with 1,000 units each, it isn't impressive?
NOMA (DC)
Land Area: 0.011 square miles
Current Population: 1,310 people
Current Population Density: 116,131 people per square miles
Projected Population: 2,870 people Projected Population Density: 260,909 people per square miles
For reference because there may be a rebuttal from someone:
The next block north of this block group in NOMA is M Street NE and Patterson St NE which will have 909 units by next year and the block is narrower in size than the block below it which is Pierce Street NE and M Street NE so it will have a population density of at least what the block above has now. The Pierce Street NE and M Street NE block currently has 897 units with 1,310 people and a 116,131 people per square mile population density.
The next block is Patterson St NE and N Street NE which will have 1,233 units and it is a similar size to the previous blocks. There are still plots of vacant land on these blocks that could go residential which has already been happening so this density will probably go up. I am not going to go block for block showing all 30,000+ units across NOMA, Union Market, and Northwest One, but you get the point.
I guess the point I am making is why not celebrate density regardless of what city it is located in?
Last edited by MDAllstar; 05-13-2022 at 08:24 PM..
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