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DC is obviously building more big class A apartment buildings than Boston or Philly. That's great to see.
The micro density in these urban pockets is certainly impressive. But, it also demonstrates how simply looking at one quantitative stat can be misleading. Rittenhouse may have a lower peak pop density then the blocks in DC with 12-story apartment buildings. When you shift the analysis from the hyperlocal Census Blocks to slightly larger Census Tracts, you see the area around Rittenhouse has higher pop densities is more consistently densely populated than Mt Vernon Triangle which quickly transitions to lower density row houses and single use office buildings.
Mt Vernon has a peak census tract of 61k ppsm with the two adjacent ones being 30 and 29kppsm respectively. https://censusreporter.org/profiles/...f-columbia-dc/
Rittenhouse has a peak census tract of 94k ppsm with the two adjacent ones being 76k and 49kppsm respectively. https://censusreporter.org/profiles/...iladelphia-pa/
Plus, that is only a measure of residential density. Rittenhouse has a much higher street level density when you include the total activity with hotels, shops, eating/drinking, office buildings. If you are looking for Manhattan style experience, I strongly suspect someone is going to be far happier in Rittenhouse than Mt Vernon Triangle or Navy Yard.
That’s because it’s not built out yet and because many of the buildings are still under construction as we speak. Don’t you live here? Reading your many posts, it’s as if you don’t see all these apartment building under construction or the lots still slated for apartment buildings. How do you think this conversation will shift year to year as all these buildings are built?
I’ve always read your posts with confusion as if you don’t see the buildings upon buildings being built every where. I mean, what do you think is going to happen when they all fill up? Even your comments about office buildings being converted to apartments is confusing. What do you think they will do long term? Just remain empty and become like I Am Legend?
Do you follow development in DC meaning pipeline development?
Here is a map showing the census tract in DC you just posted so you can see what is under construction and yet to break ground:
Under Construction
ALTA 801 = 327 Units
55 H ST NE = 158 Units
Liberty Place = 71 Units
The Cantata = 275 Units
Planned
300 K Street = 302 Units
950 3rd Street = 200 Units
901 5th Street NW = Unknown number of units (200-300 units probably)
925 5th Street NW = 49 Units
2nd & H Parking Deck Air Rights Development = Unknown number of units (Maybe up to 600 Units)
So that is 831 units currently under construction right now and another 1,451 units in the pipeline for that census tract. There are currently 3,727 people in that census tract. With 2,282 units being added to the census tract, what do you think the population density will be at full buildout? The census tract will be divided obviously which will explode the population density. We haven't even talked about the disposition of the US Government Publishing Office parking lot either which could probably take another 1,000 housing units.
Then, the census tract to the north of that has all of this:
Like I said its great to see the pace of development in DC. I like how areas like Navy Yard, MVT, SW, and NoMa/Union Market are developing. Definitely a huge improvement from what those areas were 10 or 15 years ago, with a lot more growth still to come. But, when I'm in Navy Yard (which is starting to get close to build out) it doesn't feel like I'm in Manhattan. It doesn't really even feel like your in the heart of a major MSA the way it feels in downtown of Boston or Philly. DC is a little too decentralized to have that feel. It's kind of becoming its own thing. Sort of like adding pockets of Arlington style urban villages (which also have 100kpsm tracts) to DC's existing core.
Like I said its great to see the pace of development in DC. I like how areas like Navy Yard, MVT, SW, and NoMa/Union Market are developing. Definitely a huge improvement from what those areas were 10 or 15 years ago, with a lot more growth still to come. But, when I'm in Navy Yard (which is starting to get close to build out) it doesn't feel like I'm in Manhattan. It doesn't really even feel like your in the heart of a major MSA the way it feels in downtown of Boston or Philly. DC is a little too decentralized to have that feel. It's kind of becoming its own thing.
How is Navy Yard close to full buildout? It’s about 50% built out now. You have half of The Yards still not built, tons of lots down M street near the Southwest Freeway, and an area the size of half of Navy Yard across South Capitol Street that still needs to be built out. The Navy Yard area is probably about 50% built out right now.
Let me ask you this, what would Logan Circle, Dupont Circle, Shaw, and Columbia Heights be like if they had as many currently open massive vacant lots as Mt. Vernon Triangle, Northwest One, Union Market, NOMA, The Wharf, Waterfront Station, Navy Yard, and Buzzard Point?
I can tell you, it would feel like the 1990’s and 1980’s did when I grew up here. I remember what DC used to be like. All these transplants have no idea which is why most of you lack vision. It’s hard for you to see the finished product probably because you never experienced these neighborhoods when they were half built. Dupont Circle, Logan Circle, Shaw, and Columbia Heights were nothing like they are now.
Last edited by MDAllstar; 05-01-2022 at 12:42 AM..
Obviously everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but the data just doesn’t support your claims. This stuff is all right in front of you to see and read.
Last edited by MDAllstar; 05-01-2022 at 12:23 AM..
I completely agree DC is growing faster than Philly and Boston. It's impressive that there are maybe 10k units UC across the high density neighborhoods
But, DC would still need to add 165-180k people to match the current density of Boston/Cambridge. That's like 15+ years of growth based on the 2010s rate.
So if DC is undergoing this radical growth spurt that is transforming it into a dramatically larger city in the near term, then by logical extension Boston/Cambridge must be a dramatically larger city currently.
I tend to disagree.
I think it's more like DC and Boston are in the same general weight class, with Boston marginally ahead, but DC gradually closing the gap with stronger growth. Boston gets it's density with triple deckers and walk-ups, DC gets it's density with more big apartment buildings. Boston has more of traditional mixed big city downtown, but DC offers more options for class A apartment building living.
I completely agree DC is growing faster than Philly and Boston. It's impressive that there are maybe 10k units UC across the high density neighborhoods
But, DC would still need to add 165-180k people to match the current density of Boston/Cambridge. That's like 15+ years of growth based on the 2010s rate.
So if DC is undergoing this radical growth spurt that is transforming it into a dramatically larger city in the near term, then by logical extension Boston/Cambridge must be a dramatically larger city currently.
I tend to disagree.
I think it's more like DC and Boston are in the same general weight class, with Boston marginally ahead, but DC gradually closing the gap with stronger growth. Boston gets it's density with triple deckers and walk-ups, DC gets it's density with more big apartment buildings. Boston has more of traditional mixed big city downtown, but DC offers more options for class A apartment building living.
Boston isn’t standing still though. From 2010-2020 DC gained about 3,000 people in a 61 sq mile Boston depending on what towns you add. It would take forever for DC to catch Boston at current rates
Boston isn’t standing still though. From 2010-2020 DC gained about 3,000 people in a 61 sq mile Boston depending on what towns you add. It would take forever for DC to catch Boston at current rates
Making Philly Child-Friendly is literally the easiest way to increase population density. Suddenly a 3 bedroom townhome can hold 5 people not 3. If middle class families felt comfortable in most of Philly
And you don’t even have to build anything. And that’s not “overcrowding” either. Instead every 31 year old married couple moved to Haddonfield or Norristown
Post Brothers' newest apartment buildings have playrooms in them now. (I think Mike Pestronk had his consciousness raised once he had a child.)
And Carl Dranoff's ultra-luxe Arthaus has one as well, and he is selling the building as a great place to raise a family (some owners will be able to grow their own vegetables, herbs and/or flowers in the building's greenhouse or one of its planting beds). And its 75-foot-long lap pool is only 3' 6" deep, which means all but the smallest children should be able to use it without the risk of drowning.
Boston isn’t standing still though. From 2010-2020 DC gained about 3,000 people in a 61 sq mile Boston depending on what towns you add. It would take forever for DC to catch Boston at current rates
Yeah, Boston (and Philly) is continuing to grow. So it's not like DC is chasing target. The precise pace of convergence is hard to tell given how exactly you define the core. In the 2010s, DC went from slightly smaller to now being slightly bigger. As you point out, you can cobble together a 61 Sq miles area that added nearly as many people. But, DC could probably gerrymander as 61 Sq miles area that swaps slow growth fringe areas of the District for adjacent areas of Arlington to show stronger growth.
All in all, I feel pretty confident saying Boston has the bigger core population, DC is growing slightly faster, but it will be a while (at least 20+ years if ever) before the gap closes.
Yeah, Boston (and Philly) is continuing to grow. So it's not like DC is chasing target. The precise pace of convergence is hard to tell given how exactly you define the core. In the 2010s, DC went from slightly smaller to now being slightly bigger. As you point out, you can cobble together a 61 Sq miles area that added nearly as many people. But, DC could probably gerrymander as 61 Sq miles area that swaps slow growth fringe areas of the District for adjacent areas of Arlington to show stronger growth.
All in all, I feel pretty confident saying Boston has the bigger core population, DC is growing slightly faster, but it will be a while (at least 20+ years if ever) before the gap closes.
With Boston I feel like I did a pretty honest Gerrymander. Suffolk County (Boston, Chelsea, Revere Winthrop)+Everett is combining the fewest political entities as possible and grew by 84,000 in 10 years. And the “Density optimized” Cambridge, Somerville, Boston, Chelsea grew by 83,000 vs DC’s 87,000.
If you flipped Revere out for Malden and Watertown you’d be at 84,000 as well
So pretty much any combo you can reasonably call the “core” Boston was just barely behind DC in population growth
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