Will New York and Philadelphia CSAs MERGE like Baltimore and DC? (rates, population)

[ion475]

Originally Posted by jpdivola

I have my issues with CSAs in general and the Wash-Balt CSA in particular. But, as other posters have noted DC and Baltimore's cores are dramatically closer (35-40 miles) than Philly's to NYCs (95-100 miles). Much if not all of Howard, Ann Arundel and even parts of Baltimore County are closer still. Really only Mercer County at the very edge of the NYC CSA is comparable.

More realistic questions are:
1) will Mercer County ever switch from the NYC to Philly CSA
2) will Howard or Ann Arundel ever switch to the DC MSA?

I suspect the questions to both are still no. But, in my opinion it makes the case for using something smaller than county level data to draw boundaries.

For Mercer Co - NYC job base is just a lot larger meaning commute will always favor that direction. ~5% of Mercer Co do commute to Manhattan (New York Co) everyday at least before COVID.

As for Howard and AA - Howard Co IIRC was pulled to DC MSA before, but ultimately is still more Baltimore than DC.

AA County is 95% Baltimore MSA. The only part that has some draw to DC would be the Crofton/Odenton/Gambrills area (helps that Odenton has a MARC station) and the "Maryland City" area (which for census purpose includes Russett) which has a Laurel zip code anyway, with both area being right on the edge adjacent to Patuxent River (the dividing line between Anne Arundel and Prince George's County)

[KodeBlue]

Originally Posted by jpdivola

I have my issues with CSAs in general and the Wash-Balt CSA in particular. But, as other posters have noted DC and Baltimore's cores are dramatically closer (35-40 miles) than Philly's to NYCs (95-100 miles). Much if not all of Howard, Ann Arundel and even parts of Baltimore County are closer still. Really only Mercer County at the very edge of the NYC CSA is comparable.

More realistic questions are:
1) will Mercer County ever switch from the NYC to Philly CSA
2) will Howard or Ann Arundel ever switch to the DC MSA?

I suspect the questions to both are still no. But, in my opinion it makes the case for using something smaller than county level data to draw boundaries.

Ann Arundel County Borders Baltimore City. No way it switches. The core of Howard's population is Ellicot City, which literally borders Baltimore County.

[the resident09]

Originally Posted by ion475

For Mercer Co - NYC job base is just a lot larger meaning commute will always favor that direction. ~5% of Mercer Co do commute to Manhattan (New York Co) everyday at least before COVID.

As for Howard and AA - Howard Co IIRC was pulled to DC MSA before, but ultimately is still more Baltimore than DC.

AA County is 95% Baltimore MSA. The only part that has some draw to DC would be the Crofton/Odenton/Gambrills area (helps that Odenton has a MARC station) and the "Maryland City" area (which for census purpose includes Russett) which has a Laurel zip code anyway, with both area being right on the edge adjacent to Patuxent River (the dividing line between Anne Arundel and Prince George's County)

That's just activity at the "border line" of the MSA counties btw. There are "super commuters" too across PG, Howard, Frederick, Baltimore County and to a much lesser extent Montgomery. There's significantly more cross county activity from end to end, than those places than Mercer and others NJ/NY/Philly region which geographically is even more spread out across way more square miles. You're more inclined to see cross MSA activity crossing over multiple counties in the DC-Balt area. Living in PG or MoCo and going to a mall in Anne Arundel just to go right back home is perfectly regular activity if one chooses to do so. Pre-pandemic I knew people living in Baltimore County and working in Arlington, VA.

[MarketStEl]

Originally Posted by jpdivola

I have my issues with CSAs in general and the Wash-Balt CSA in particular. But, as other posters have noted DC and Baltimore's cores are dramatically closer (35-40 miles) than Philly's to NYCs (95-100 miles). Much if not all of Howard, Ann Arundel and even parts of Baltimore County are closer still. Really only Mercer County at the very edge of the NYC CSA is comparable.

More realistic questions are:
1) will Mercer County ever switch from the NYC to Philly CSA
2) will Howard or Ann Arundel ever switch to the DC MSA?

I suspect the questions to both are still no. But, in my opinion it makes the case for using something smaller than county level data to draw boundaries.

Mercer County was moved from the Philadelphia CSA to the New York CSA in the early 1990s. I thought at the time that this was mainly a way to give Federal Government employees in the county a back-door pay raise, as the COLA for the New York CSA is higher than that for the Philadelphia CSA thanks to higher average housing costs, but looking at the data on that Census map, it's clear that commuting patterns have shifted to the point where commuting between Mercer and counties in the New York CSA now outstrips commuting between Mercer and counties in the Philadelphia CSA — and the criteria for inclusion in either an MSA or a CSA is based on commuting percentages between the county in question and any other county already in the MSA or CSA, not necessarily the core county.

However, as I noted somewhere upthread, Mercer County remains in Philadelphia's DMA ("designated market area" — media market), and I don't see that changing anytime in the future, either.

The closest thing you can get to the finer-grained distinction you seek is the "urban area" (formerly "urbanized area") definition, which is based on dwelling unit density (it used to be population density) as well as minimum population thresholds. The problem is: Outside New England, New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, counties also have unincorporated territory in them, and that unincorporated territory is not necessarily rural — some of it may be and often is developed enough to be included in the urban area boundary. And if that is the case, it definitely should be within the MSA boundary.

But also, since the OMB bases core-based statistical areas on political jurisdictions, then the default is to the smallest political jurisdiction that can be used to encompass the entire territory. In New England, that's the town. In the three northern Mid-Atlantic states, it's the township — but for some reason the OMB doesn't use townships as the basis for forming metropolitan areas the way it does New England towns, perhaps because county governments still perform a function in those states while they are either vestigial or nonexistent in most of New England.

[Gantz]

Originally Posted by MarketStEl

Mercer County was moved from the Philadelphia CSA to the New York CSA in the early 1990s. I thought at the time that this was mainly a way to give Federal Government employees in the county a back-door pay raise, as the COLA for the New York CSA is higher than that for the Philadelphia CSA thanks to higher average housing costs, but looking at the data on that Census map, it's clear that commuting patterns have shifted to the point where commuting between Mercer and counties in the New York CSA now outstrips commuting between Mercer and counties in the Philadelphia CSA — and the criteria for inclusion in either an MSA or a CSA is based on commuting percentages between the county in question and any other county already in the MSA or CSA, not necessarily the core county.

I think in part it has to do with changes in Mercer county itself. Princeton area that is closer to New York gained in importance and commuters, while the Trenton area closer to Philly declined or remained stagnant. There are probably a decent amount of people who commute to Princeton via NJT from core NYC New Jersey counties. It is a one seat ride to Princeton Junction from Newark with no train transfers that is exactly 1 hour on a commuter train. That is certainly not too bad and can be a reasonable daily commute even.

[ion475]

Originally Posted by the resident09

That's just activity at the "border line" of the MSA counties btw. There are "super commuters" too across PG, Howard, Frederick, Baltimore County and to a much lesser extent Montgomery. There's significantly more cross county activity from end to end, than those places than Mercer and others NJ/NY/Philly region which geographically is even more spread out across way more square miles. You're more inclined to see cross MSA activity crossing over multiple counties in the DC-Balt area. Living in PG or MoCo and going to a mall in Anne Arundel just to go right back home is perfectly regular activity if one chooses to do so. Pre-pandemic I knew people living in Baltimore County and working in Arlington, VA.

This...not to mention that the whole area between the two especially along I-95 corridor is more or less build up with not just suburbia residential but also offices. Sure, you have suburbia offices in Princeton area also, but those area are definitely way more connected to NYC than it's to Philly.

Originally Posted by KodeBlue

Ann Arundel County Borders Baltimore City. No way it switches. The core of Howard's population is Ellicot City, which literally borders Baltimore County.

Just throwing around numbers...

Ellicott City:
Staying in HoCo - ~28% (including ~12% to Columbia and ~8.5% to Ellicott City)
BalCo (15%) + Baltimore City (15.5%) + AACo (11%) = 41.5%
PGC (5.5%) + MoCo (10%) + DC (4%) = 19.5%
Others = 12%

Columbia: (Which is arguably the true "core" of HoCo)
Staying in HoCo - ~31% (including ~19% within Columbia)
BalCo (10%) + Baltimore City (11%) + AACo (11%) = 32%
PGC (8%) + MoCo (13%) + DC (5%) = 28%
Others (including NoVA or Frederick Co which are part of DC MSA) = ~9%

Then for a very small sample, Fulton (i.e. Maple Lawn area)...which is literally right across the river from MoCo
Staying in HoCo - ~31% (~13% in Columbia)
BalCo (10%) + Baltimore City (12%) + AACo (9%) = 31%
PGC (11%) + MoCo (17%) + DC (3%) = 31%
Others = 7%

For the reverse, using Columbia only (i.e. for people that works in Columbia) since it's the center of jobs in HoCo.
HoCo - 24.5%
BalCo (13.5%) + AACo (13.5%) + Baltimore City (7.5%) = 34.5%
PGC (8%) + MoCo (10.5%) + DC (1%) = 19.5%
Carroll = 5%, FredCo = 3%, Harford = ~2%, Others = ~11%

Ultimately Howard County definitely leans more toward Baltimore even in areas very close to DC MSA (i.e. Fulton/Maple Lawn area).

[the resident09]

^^Small quibble, but at it's shortest route Columbia is about 24 miles to Washington DC, and 21 miles to Baltimore...So basically the same distance, but lean Baltimore. For all intents and purposes that's equidistant and anywhere else in the country would be same metro area in either direction if the other big city didn't exist. Which is exactly why DC-Baltimore is a quintessential CSA. I say this knowing that Columbia is by definition a "Baltimore suburb", but look up any brochure, or add about buying a home there I assure you it will say "nestled safely halfway between Baltimore and Washington DC". Philadelphia- NY doesn't have a suburb to that dynamic in between, let alone multiple.

[ion475]

Originally Posted by the resident09

^^Small quibble, but at it's shortest route Columbia is about 24 miles to Washington DC, and 21 miles to Baltimore...So basically the same distance, but lean Baltimore. For all intents and purposes that's equidistant and anywhere else in the country would be same metro area in either direction if the other big city didn't exist. Which is exactly why DC-Baltimore is a quintessential CSA. I say this knowing that Columbia is by definition a "Baltimore suburb", but look up any brochure, or add about buying a home there I assure you it will say "nestled safely halfway between Baltimore and Washington DC". Philadelphia- NY doesn't have a suburb to that dynamic in between, let alone multiple.

Then here's a new development in Crofton area (Technically it's in Odenton but it's definitely closer to what people consider Crofton).

https://www.livetworivers.com/location/

Selling point? Being equidistance to DC, Baltimore, and Annapolis. And of course the sales pitch mention the community being in "Washington DC metro area" (even though the community is in AA County).

Good luck finding similar ad for homes in the area between NYC and Philly.

[the resident09]

Originally Posted by ion475

Then here's a new development in Crofton area (Technically it's in Odenton but it's definitely more Crofton).

https://www.livetworivers.com/location/

Selling point? Being equidistance to DC, Baltimore, and Annapolis. And of course the sales pitch mention the community being in "Washington DC metro area" (even though the community is in AA County).

Good luck finding similar ad for homes in the area between NYC and Philly.

It wouldn't let me rep you, but exactly this. It's the primary difference you notice here vs between Philly and NYC... Their slogan under the logo clearly says "center of it all", and in the first paragraph "Located in the center of the “golden triangle” of Baltimore, Washington DC, and Annapolis". Companies have long marketed the entire DC and Baltimore corridor as a mega-region of two separate cities, where you can pick which side you want to be a part of.

Philadelphia is the 7th largest metro area in the country by itself and the 4th largest media market. There will never in our lifetimes be a combination of that metro with the largest metro in the US.

[P Larsen]

No.