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In Spite of most cities doing way better than 2020 to 2022 in homicides YTD. (Though not pre COVID levels)
I wonder what cities besides D.C are doing worse or at least on par with 2020-22 homicides YTD
I think KCMO is another one if I'm not mistaken. Not sure about the latest stats but I believe I remember on here in this thread that was mentioning it's on pace for an all-time record high.
This is the part of the city im least familiar with, but i kind of agree on the arguments on all sides, and will add in a bit of gentrification to the mix in this instance since you're seeing parts of Hough/Fairfax/southern Glenville (the areas around the Clinic/University Circle) start to see redevelopment. The people being pushed out are more likely to find affordable rents in northern Glenville, Forest Hills, Collinwood than in the other nearby areas that are either way more unaffordable or had been even more high crime (East Cleveland/SE side). Thats probably pushing alot of families with teens in formerly undesirable areas now to other areas that are still undesirable just a mile or 2 away. That's a powder keg, especially if you're already low on officers and parenting (for whatever reason) already wasn't the greatest. Add to that Ohio at the state level has basically encouraged everyone to carry a gun, not a surprise things are blowing up in that area.
Regarding the debate about how most homicides are targeted, which is indeed very true. From a public safety standpoint, what about the idea of certain data samples just counting homicides with two plus (deceased) victims as another way to determine how dangerous some places are. I know this might sound crazily stupid but I know in the DFW area at the very least, homicides with multiple deceased victims will often include people who weren’t specifically targeted. Furthermore, as unfortunate as it is, most mass murder events in this country have a component in which most or all victims weren’t specifically targeted.
The Baltimore police close 37% of homicides. We actually don’t know who is committing most murders so how can we know if they have connection with the victim? People make suppositions to make people feel better that’s how.
Because the very nature of homicides isn’t random.
Outside the utmost extreme cases (mass shooting/terrorism/road rage/armed robbery etc..) people just don’t gun down the random person jogging minding their business. The overwhelming evidence shows there is connections between the victims and the killer.
Of the of homicides solved in Baltimore something like 85% of victims knew their killer in some shape or form.
That’s called a sampling bias and can be used to estimate the city at large.
Because the very nature of homicides isn’t random.
Outside the utmost extreme cases (mass shooting/terrorism/road rage/armed robbery etc..) people just don’t gun down the random person jogging minding their business. The overwhelming evidence shows there is connections between the victims and the killer.
Of the of homicides solved in Baltimore something like 85% of victims knew their killer in some shape or form.
That’s called a sampling bias and can be used to estimate the city at large.
Thank you for citing that statistic, and it makes complete sense.
It's also crazy to me how little non-urban Americans seems to worry going about their business in any "safe" suburban setting, where random shootings are ACTUALLY much more likely to occur (see any of the horrifying most publicized shooting events of the past 20 years; they're overwhelmingly NOT in urban settings and they are very much random).
Yet there's so much more publicity/concern about violence in urban neighborhoods where the average middle-class individual would never think to step foot in or never meaningfully interact with anyone living in those neighborhoods.
Atlanta is at 66 as of 7/22, and the gap has closed a bit to just under 25% from the same time last year when it was at 87. Even though 2022 was a bad year, it was relatively quiet in July and I think that was the one point of the year when it was actually lower than 2021 but of course that did not last. As long as it stays relatively quiet and doesn't have another surge like towards the end of last year we should be ok.
Philadelphia is at 243, down 22% from 311 in 2022. Unless there’s a disaster in the second half of the year it will almost certainly be the best year since 2019.
A Dallas home in the Oak Cliff neighborhood was raided by local law enforcement and the FBI. Two dozen or so arrests have occurred. Hopefully, the level of violence in Dallas will go down due to this.
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