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DCs murder rate is on trend for 275 or so murders. That would put it back to 1997 levels. Yes , below the absolute highest levels of the early 90s. But still 25 years of progress gone and at levels last seen when the city was still in bad shape and losing people. DCs murder rate is on track to be higher than all but the highest crime cities.
Could "reverse gentrification" happen? I'm not sure what else to call it but basically the trend of the migration pattern of the last few decades reversing and going back to the way it was before that. It seems to be trend in many other cities as well since COVID, a new flight to the suburbs as blight returns to the inner cities.
DC's homicides are way overblown. 55 more homicides YTD yet only 10 more shooting victims. All this means is either people have been more accurate or the trauma centers city-wide are declining (which is very unlikely). 10 more victims is literally one bad weekend more than last year.
Milwaukee is the reverse with 38 fewer homicides yet 22 more shootings.
Seems like a random crime so far...just crazy even in Baltimore standard.
As boredatwork points out a few times, a lot of the homicide are concentrated in the worst part of DC east of Anacostia River (Ward 7 / Ward 8). You won't see those insane homicide number in NW DC nor people will shoot one another in the heavily policed tourist area (i.e. National Mall).
Not all gentrified area are created equal, either. Whereas Navy Yard area definitely got a lot better, even areas like Union Market / NoMA and definitely Columbia Heights still has problems.
At the end, yes, DC doesn't really have those Baltimore-style bomb-out neighborhoods, doesn't mean there is no crime problem there.
Thats not like DC to fail to report 8 murders. I truly hate to speculate but these are my peers kids in their 20s and teens just doing whatever not even making it to 30yo.
ward 7/8 just 160k account for 56% of the homicides with 118. Ward 8 alone has 80 with 85k ppl a rate of 94.
DC's homicides are way overblown. 55 more homicides YTD yet only 10 more shooting victims. All this means is either people have been more accurate or the trauma centers city-wide are declining (which is very unlikely). 10 more victims is literally one bad weekend more than last year.
Milwaukee is the reverse with 38 fewer homicides yet 22 more shootings.
DC's homicides are way overblown. 55 more homicides YTD yet only 10 more shooting victims. All this means is either people have been more accurate or the trauma centers city-wide are declining (which is very unlikely). 10 more victims is literally one bad weekend more than last year.
Milwaukee is the reverse with 38 fewer homicides yet 22 more shootings.
I realize other forms of crime are going up, but the talk of DC's gun violence is blown out of proportion.
173 people were killed by a firearm this year compared to 135 last year; a difference of 38 homicides. That's startling until you realize there's only been 10 more shooting victims.
People going off about how the gun violence is reverting back to the 90's crack wars era because of 10 more shooting victims is nothing short of hysteria. 10 shooting victims is literally one awful weekend's worth of victims. I could understand the panic if it were up by 100.
DCs murder rate is on trend for 275 or so murders. That would put it back to 1997 levels. Yes , below the absolute highest levels of the early 90s. But still 25 years of progress gone and at levels last seen when the city was still in bad shape and losing people. DCs murder rate is on track to be higher than all but the highest crime cities.
Context matters when looking at homicides rates. DC currently has the lowest assault with a deadly weapon count in 30 years. The reason the homicide rate is so high has to do with the amount of bullets used which is derived from automatic weapons. The former police chief highlighted this already. Instead of a few bullets at a crime scene, there are hundreds of bullets at crime scenes which has a substantially higher fatality rate.
Check the number of shootings compared to anytime in the last 30 years. It’s a tiny fraction of the amount of shootings. Data and context matters. There is probably close to a 1000% reduction in shootings compared to the 90’s. But there are way more bullets being used in a single shooting because of Glock switches.
DC's homicides are way overblown. 55 more homicides YTD yet only 10 more shooting victims. All this means is either people have been more accurate or the trauma centers city-wide are declining (which is very unlikely). 10 more victims is literally one bad weekend more than last year.
Milwaukee is the reverse with 38 fewer homicides yet 22 more shootings.
Homicides alone don't paint the full picture.
Lol almost every city in America is declining in homicides. Even notorious crime cities like Philly and Chicago are having their safest post-pandemic year this year (homicide wise).
DC it's the opposite, crime is skyrocketing in that city. Something is clearly going wrong there. I mean the city just surpassed Baltimore in homicides for the first time in 20+ years, thats pathetic.
Could "reverse gentrification" happen? I'm not sure what else to call it but basically the trend of the migration pattern of the last few decades reversing and going back to the way it was before that. It seems to be trend in many other cities as well since COVID, a new flight to the suburbs as blight returns to the inner cities.
It may not be likely. But there is a possibility. Baltimore has been consistently losing population despite a reasonably healthy MSA economy.
The comparatively high crime rate and telework could certainly make DC a less attractive place to be. It's possible a fiscal crisis could be added to the mix as federal stimulus funds expire and downtown property tax revenues fall.
When combined with the fact that Arlington/Alexandria give you most of the upsides of DC, with a lot less of the downsides and you could definitely see a shifting across the river.
Will DCs high murder level abate? Hopefully, maybe even likely. But it is a big cause for concern.
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Boredatwork
