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View Poll Results: Which Will happen FIRST in terms of population?
1st, DFW Metroplex will Surpass Metro Chicago 52 44.44%
1st, City of Houston will Surpass City of Chicago 33 28.21%
Chicago Will Remain 3rd Largest City 14 11.97%
Neither, We Don't Know what the Future Holds 18 15.38%
Voters: 117. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 06-26-2023, 12:52 PM
 
Location: Odenton, MD
3,531 posts, read 2,326,728 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NigerianNightmare View Post
If by multi-family you mean duplexes and triplexes and quadplexes yes, definitely. But if you mean just apartment complexes as a whole I would imagine they’re similar. I just think Arlington+DC+Alexandria carry a lot of the D.C areas density and that’s why it’s denser. Fairfax isn’t denser than the developed part of Fort Bend although it’s more urban. For example Cy-Fair ISD which is a suburban school district close to 100% buildout is 3500 ppsm over 200 square miles. Most suburban isds close to build out range from 2500 - 3500 or higher densities. I would argue that it’s a wash outside of D.C+Arlington+Alexandria vs Outside Houston or Inner Loop, arguably outside the inner loop is denser.
Arlington + DC + Alexandria is a hair over 1 million people in ~100 sq.mi. DC has 2.1 million people inside the capital beltway (326 sq/mi). It's substantially denser than Houston or DFW in it's core regions and weighted density tracts objectively show that.

What Dallas & Houston have is uniformly developed gridded suburbs akin to LA, where as DC turns exclusively into sunbelt cul-de-sac sprawl outside of the beltway excluding TOD centers like Silver Springs, Bethesda, College Park etc...

Chicago doesn't have cup-de-sac sprawl, it's gridded like Houston or DFW which is why it's UA is physically large despite being denser.
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Old 06-26-2023, 12:59 PM
 
Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
8,128 posts, read 7,568,606 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joakim3 View Post
They're not, because he's using MSA counties to calc density of an urban areas. which are not analogous metrics.

Houston has 5.85 million people in 1,752.69 sq.mi @3,340 ppsm
Dallas has 5.73 million people in 1,746.90 sq.mi @3,281 ppsm

DC has 5.17 million people in 1,294.51 sq.mi @3,998 ppsm
Houston is the one that impresses me of the two. A bit more than Dallas (solely) because Fort Worth is actually another city. Houston is big on it's own. The shoulders do seem big that it carries, but it's a lot due to unmitigated sprawl. DC (itself) sprawls more to the West and South. There's contiguous development in the MD suburbs all the way to Baltimore, but it's not unmitigated sprawling feel like the sunbelt, and once you hit the other city's beltway you feel the difference.

2022 Radius population figures:

City (Zip Code) 25 mi- radius population
New York (10007) - 14,806,801
Los Angeles (90012) - 9,784,044
Chicago (60604) - 5,701,413
Houston (77002) - 5,398,211
Washington (20001) - 5,059,519

Philadelphia (19102) - 4,868,626
Dallas (75204) - 4,795,653

It's at the 35 mi mark where Dallas pulls back ahead, IMO this is more akin to DC adding Baltimore area development. Than what HOU does on it's own.

City(Zip Code) 35 mi- radius population
New York (10007) - 17,345,328
Los Angeles (90012) - 12,363,806
Chicago (60604) - 7,658,532
Washington (20001)- 6,921,371
Dallas (75204)- 6,575,249
Houston (77002)- 6,455,284


Even Baltimore shows it's strength at 35 mi, punching well above it's MSA weight.
Baltimore (21202)- 4,874,038

Last edited by the resident09; 06-26-2023 at 01:23 PM..
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Old 06-26-2023, 01:06 PM
 
Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
8,128 posts, read 7,568,606 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaylord_Focker View Post
Wow, the Texas cities are more dense. I never knew that.
Absolutely not. DC UA is more dense than Houston, Dallas, and Chicago. I believe the same is true for MSA but will have to pull the data.

Tiny ole DC+Arlington+ Alexandria has as many high rise buildings 12 stories or more in 100 sq mi, than Houston proper does in over 600 sq mi.
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Old 06-26-2023, 01:49 PM
 
4,344 posts, read 2,810,471 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the resident09 View Post
Houston is the one that impresses me of the two. A bit more than Dallas (solely) because Fort Worth is actually another city. Houston is big on it's own. The shoulders do seem big that it carries, but it's a lot due to unmitigated sprawl. DC (itself) sprawls more to the West and South. There's contiguous development in the MD suburbs all the way to Baltimore, but it's not unmitigated sprawling feel like the sunbelt, and once you hit the other city's beltway you feel the difference.

2022 Radius population figures:

City (Zip Code) 25 mi- radius population
New York (10007) - 14,806,801
Los Angeles (90012) - 9,784,044
Chicago (60604) - 5,701,413
Houston (77002) - 5,398,211
Washington (20001) - 5,059,519

Philadelphia (19102) - 4,868,626
Dallas (75204) - 4,795,653

It's at the 35 mi mark where Dallas pulls back ahead, IMO this is more akin to DC adding Baltimore area development. Than what HOU does on it's own.

City(Zip Code) 35 mi- radius population
New York (10007) - 17,345,328
Los Angeles (90012) - 12,363,806
Chicago (60604) - 7,658,532
Washington (20001)- 6,921,371
Dallas (75204)- 6,575,249
Houston (77002)- 6,455,284


Even Baltimore shows it's strength at 35 mi, punching well above it's MSA weight.
Baltimore (21202)- 4,874,038
I think 25M in each direction is more than generous. NY increases in population at 35, but takes on more water than land. Same with LA
35M east of DC puts you in the Chesapeake
35M to the southeast of Houston puts you in Galveston Bay.

The only one from your list that only takes in land from 25M to 35M is DFW.

Because many metros are more sandwiched, you do get those that stretch 70miles or more, but most of the umpth is usually in the inner 50miles, so I think 25M is an adequate radius.

If you have to drive more than 70 miles, I definitely count that as another city. Heck 20miles is pushing it

Quote:
Originally Posted by the resident09 View Post
Absolutely not. DC UA is more dense than Houston, Dallas, and Chicago. I believe the same is true for MSA but will have to pull the data.

Tiny ole DC+Arlington+ Alexandria has as many high rise buildings 12 stories or more in 100 sq mi, than Houston proper does in over 600 sq mi.
Yeah, Houston gets unfairly labeled as the most sprawled metro when in actuality it is more middle if the pack. But no, DC is more dense.

Not sure why Houston always get used as an example, when DFW and Atlanta are two prominent example that better make the point
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Old 06-26-2023, 08:32 PM
 
Location: Washington D.C. By way of Texas
20,516 posts, read 33,544,005 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the resident09 View Post
Lol. It does. You just don't like it for them because DC-Balt is the 3rd largest CSA now. In fact, I think it's the quintessential CSA of the entire country for any matter by textbook definition, a way greater example than both LA and Boston CSA's, and SF/SJ should just be one MSA.

When comparing to MSA's over 10k sq miles like Houston and Dallas, you have to take any MSA or CSA totals with a grain of salt. Urban Area is flawed too, but probably comes closest to reality in describing a city's urban range.
I can understand Boston. That's why I put maybe but not LA. I think LA and the inland empire are just as built up as any other CSA. More than DC-Bmore I would say. I think the Bay Area is the textbook definition of a CSA with LA/Riverside right behind it.
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Old 06-26-2023, 10:04 PM
 
Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
8,128 posts, read 7,568,606 times
Reputation: 5785
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spade View Post
I can understand Boston. That's why I put maybe but not LA. I think LA and the inland empire are just as built up as any other CSA. More than DC-Bmore I would say. I think the Bay Area is the textbook definition of a CSA with LA/Riverside right behind it.
Combined statistical area:
The OMB defines a CSA as consisting of various combinations of adjacent metropolitan and micropolitan areas with economic ties measured by commuting patterns. These areas that combine retain their own designations as metropolitan or micropolitan statistical areas within the larger combined statistical area.

The primary distinguishing factor between a CSA and an MSA/µSA is that the social and economic ties between the individual MSAs/µSAs within a CSA are at lower levels than between the counties within an MSA.[3] CSAs represent multiple metropolitan or micropolitan areas that have an employment interchange of at least 15%.[3] CSAs often represent regions with overlapping labor and media markets.


LA-Riverside is just spill over sprawl, with one MSA being enormously weaker than the other. It's not how I view a CSA at all, and places like Palm Desert are almost as far from LA as DC is to Philly. DC-Baltimore is a farrrr far better example by the textbook definition above, it's not even close IMO. SF/SJ should be one MSA not CSA, but that's the 6-7ish million core area hugging the Bay itself, not the entire 9.4 million CSA of the Bay Area.

Anywho, back to Houston/DAL compared to Chi, as I was just responding to the insinuation brought up about CSA's. I think by around 2045 we'll start to see Dallas consistently considered as populated, or close to that of Chicago even if Chi loses no further population. With that stated even at 9 or so million, it won't have the density to match Chicagoland, even just by MSA unless they drastically drop in population.

I thought that by the end of this decade or so Houston might be approaching Chicago's city population, but evidently growth trends say that it's not by then? In 2045 I think it would be more likely, but if Chicago picks up steam, the city's growth trends by then it could hold H-Town off. Either way with the municipal boundaries set as is today, it's unlikely Houston will ever be close to as dense as Chicago proper.

Last edited by the resident09; 06-26-2023 at 10:38 PM..
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Old 06-27-2023, 05:28 AM
 
Location: OC
12,839 posts, read 9,567,574 times
Reputation: 10626
I frequent Texas centric sites. Many posters have had it with the heat. I know the posters here won’t say it for obvious reasons but summers in Texas are grueling
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Old 06-27-2023, 09:53 PM
 
Location: USA Gulf Coast
393 posts, read 262,064 times
Reputation: 537
DFW is growing insanely fast in recent years; it will definitely pass up metro Chicago before Houston passes Chicago proper.
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Old 06-28-2023, 04:19 AM
 
278 posts, read 122,072 times
Reputation: 270
Default This may not be good

I'm starting to think that fast population growth may not be such a good thing. I mean have you seen some if these new folks. Ate you sure its a good thing? I'm in Texas and sure the population is growing. I went to a Sam's club that I have frenquented for years to get a pizza and had to park far away in a different stores parking lot then walk past all the gypsies standing in the entryway with their kids asking for money. After finally making it inside Sam's Club there were at least 25 people in a long line to get to the counter NOBODY spioke English and all the tables were taken. There were people standing up to eat the $1.50 hot dog combo or pizza. Nothing against all the new folks but this state has definitely changed
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Old 06-28-2023, 09:15 PM
 
Location: Dallas, Texas
4,435 posts, read 6,304,590 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaylord_Focker View Post
I frequent Texas centric sites. Many posters have had it with the heat. I know the posters here won’t say it for obvious reasons but summers in Texas are grueling
The month of June has been abnormally hot and humid.
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