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I get that... These stats just come off as a bit tone death to those in the D.C area who are struggling to buy a house.
I think that can be said for every metro area in America. Most people in large metro areas can’t afford to buy a house. That’s why they move to smaller metro areas, although, the top 5 large metro areas listed compete very well even with smaller metro areas. The data is the data. If someone living in a smaller metro area is making under the average median income, they too can’t buy a house now.
There are parts of the DC area (i.e. the NOVA and MD suburbs where housing is relatively affordable). Think places like Charles County, West Virginia, far out in VA etc. That plus high wages is why DC isn't as bad as some of expensive MSAs.
Yep. The most fascinating trend to watch beginning this decade will be how decreasing affordability in the Sun Belt will play out in terms of impacts to growth/in-migration that has been historically predicated on being a "bargain."
My theory is migration is going to begin to equalize at some point, whereby there will be less and less of a competitive cost advantage for north-to-south migration, and in more and more cases, a cost disadvantage.
There are parts of the DC area (i.e. the NOVA and MD suburbs where housing is relatively affordable). Think places like Charles County, West Virginia, far out in VA etc. That plus high wages is why DC isn't as bad as some of expensive MSAs.
There's no such thing as Charles County, WV. You mean Charles Town?
DC city proper is building a ton of housing though. Far more than other cities of its size. It's one of the few areas the City Government is competent in. DC has a donut shape to growth. The city proper, Arlington and Alexandria are building tons of apartments and condos.
Then you get to the NIMBY heartland like Fairfax and Montgomery County where growth has collapsed and population is even in decline. Then you get the exurbs like Loudoun and Frederick that are booming again. Places like Jefferson County, Fauquier County and Calvert County are low growth. The latter two are even rural NIMBY themselves.
There's no such thing as Charles County, WV. You mean Charles Town?
DC city proper is building a ton of housing though. Far more than other cities of its size. It's one of the few areas the City Government is competent in. DC has a donut shape to growth. The city proper, Arlington and Alexandria are building tons of apartments and condos.
Then you get to the NIMBY heartland like Fairfax and Montgomery County where growth has collapsed and population is even in decline. Then you get the exurbs like Loudoun and Frederick that are booming again. Places like Jefferson County, Fauquier County and Calvert County are low growth. The latter two are even rural NIMBY themselves.
I meant "Charles County (MD), West Virginia, far out in VA etc. "
There's no such thing as Charles County, WV. You mean Charles Town?
DC city proper is building a ton of housing though. Far more than other cities of its size. It's one of the few areas the City Government is competent in. DC has a donut shape to growth. The city proper, Arlington and Alexandria are building tons of apartments and condos.
Then you get to the NIMBY heartland like Fairfax and Montgomery County where growth has collapsed and population is even in decline. Then you get the exurbs like Loudoun and Frederick that are booming again. Places like Jefferson County, Fauquier County and Calvert County are low growth. The latter two are even rural NIMBY themselves.
Don't forget about Stafford Co and northern Spotsylvania Co which are also growing like crazy, despite I-95 being a parking lot from Fredericksburg to Springfield.
Meanwhile Frederick Co MD is having new construction left and right (I live in one of those ) and is far and away the fastest growing county in Maryland. Still getting outpace by LoCo across the Potomac, though.
You are correct about Fauquier VA and Calvert MD, though. Then there is Jefferson Co WV which IMHO suffer for being in WV.
Side note - Baltimore MSA is even more affordable using that metric (2.5x house price to income ratio), although there is definitely a big difference between Howard Co (expensive) and Harford Co (somewhat nice and cheap but away from DC), then there is the rural NIMBYs in Carroll Co MD who is really scared of certain demographics moving across the county line.
This true of the North as well. There are plenty of affordable cities with great urban bones.
I agree with Duderino. It's impossible to say when the shift will take place. I can't believe so many people continue to flock to Florida with the insane rising CoL, congestion, and natural disaster risk. But, I think it will happen at some point. The overall risk climate change will pose to the southern and western half of the US relative to the Midwest and Northeast will be interesting to observe. I believe in the decades to come, people will be less likely to move south and west for weather-related reasons.
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) and is far and away the fastest growing county in Maryland. Still getting outpace by LoCo across the Potomac, though.
