San Diego-LA metro suprassing NY-Phi metro (live, state, rates, place)
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Populationwise, the San Diego-Los Angeles CSA metro is within a few million of the New York-Philadelphia metro. The cities can surpass each other within the next 2 decades. Then at around 2025, the San Diego-LA metro can pull up of 35 mils, while if New York stays steady, they can be tied up. What are the odds of Los Angeles CSA's pulling away from New York.
San Diego-Los Angeles!
Now have over 23.2 million people (San Diego metro has 3.1 mil, LA has rest)
Los Angeles has 3,800,000 and San Diego has 1,400,000
In 2025, can fill up 35.2 million (no reason adding int'l city; TJ has 3 million more)
New York-Philadelphia!
Now have over 30.7 million people (New York has 12 million; adv. 1st)
New York City has 8,500,000 and Philadelphia has 1,500,000
In 2025, can only add to 35.3 million (no add'l cities around)
So, when do you think San Diego-LA has a taste of #1? I'm thinking maybe:
New York and Philly have less gain than San Diego and Los Angeles does right now, so, they do have advantage in population growth. San Diego and LA also have room to grow. New York's area has rarely any space left.
First of all, San Diego-LA are never going to be one connected metro area via development. In terms of development, the LA area isn't expanding north-south anymore, but rather east/west (that's what the Inland Empire is). The only possible place that SD-LA can connect is through the I-15 corridor, and for the most part between Temecula and Escondido, its mountainous. If the Marine Corps doesn't vacate Camp Pendleton, then there will never be development there.
Try building endless subdivisions on THOSE mountains!
Second of all, even without the development, how many people do YOU know that commute from San Diego to Los Angeles every day? I live in Los Angeles, and I haven't met ANYONE who makes that commute every day. Hell, I know more people who make the Bakersfield-Los Angeles commute more than I know people making the San Diego-LA commute, despite being the relatively same distance from each other. Perhaps there are commuters from South OC/Southwestern Riverside County to Downtown San Diego, but not from downtown to downtown. As far as I know, Metrolink (LA area commuter train) stops in Oceanside, which would require a transfer to the Coaster (SD area commuter train) in order to finish that commute via commuter train (unless you want to take Amtrak and have a $60 commute daily).
Third of all, as long as the California economy and government are as screwed up as it is right now, California's growth rate is only going to decrease along with the United States average. Sure, CA is still getting immigrants from around the world, but one day that might not nearly make up the amount of people who are leaving this state for greener pastures. San Diego has done a good job of diversifying its economy away from the military and toward more biotechnology ventures, but the LA area has some catching up to do. We still haven't figured out a way to plug the hole that manufacturing and aerospace left after the end of the Cold War, and it's been 20 years!
At this point, there's probably a higher chance that the Bay Area and Sacramento will connect more than LA-San Diego, given the relative flatness of the I-80 corridor and the MUCH higher growth rates of the Sacramento/Stockton area. Those are the California metros to really watch out for.
It could collectively pass Philadelphia-NYC, but I don't think that LA-SD will ever be as physically connected to each other as those two are with each other. There's really only maybe a 5 mile stretch along US 1 between Princeton and New Brunswick where it looks like you're out in the boonies (along the turnpike, you can't even tell), unlike the 20-25 mile stretch between San Clemente and Oceanside, or the 25-30 mile stretch between Temecula and Escondido.
Last edited by Lifeshadower; 12-31-2010 at 05:37 PM..
First of all, San Diego-LA are never going to be one connected metro area via development. In terms of development, the LA area isn't expanding north-south anymore, but rather east/west (that's what the Inland Empire is). The only possible place that SD-LA can connect is through the I-15 corridor, and for the most part between Temecula and Escondido, its mountainous. If the Marine Corps doesn't vacate Camp Pendleton, then there will never be development there.
Try building endless subdivisions on THOSE mountains!
Second of all, even without the development, how many people do YOU know that commute from San Diego to Los Angeles every day? I live in Los Angeles, and I haven't met ANYONE who makes that commute every day. Hell, I know more people who make the Bakersfield-Los Angeles commute more than I know people making the San Diego-LA commute, despite being the relatively same distance from each other. Perhaps there are commuters from South OC/Southwestern Riverside County to Downtown San Diego, but not from downtown to downtown. As far as I know, Metrolink (LA area commuter train) stops in Oceanside, which would require a transfer to the Coaster (SD area commuter train) in order to finish that commute via commuter train (unless you want to take Amtrak and have a $60 commute daily).
Third of all, as long as the California economy and government are as screwed up as it is right now, California's growth rate is only going to decrease along with the United States average. Sure, CA is still getting immigrants from around the world, but one day that might not nearly make up the amount of people who are leaving this state for greener pastures. San Diego has done a good job of diversifying its economy away from the military and toward more biotechnology ventures, but the LA area has some catching up to do. We still haven't figured out a way to plug the hole that manufacturing and aerospace left after the end of the Cold War, and it's been 20 years!
At this point, there's probably a higher chance that the Bay Area and Sacramento will connect more than LA-San Diego, given the relative flatness of the I-80 corridor and the MUCH higher growth rates of the Sacramento/Stockton area. Those are the California metros to really watch out for.
It could collectively pass Philadelphia-NYC, but I don't think that LA-SD will ever be as physically connected to each other as those two are with each other. There's really only maybe a 5 mile stretch along US 1 between Princeton and New Brunswick where it looks like you're out in the boonies (along the turnpike, you can't even tell), unlike the 20-25 mile stretch between San Clemente and Oceanside, or the 25-30 mile stretch between Temecula and Escondido.
Blah blah blah, it's actually possible that San Diego-LA metros can connect.
There's really only maybe a 5 mile stretch along US 1 between Princeton and New Brunswick where it looks like you're out in the boonies (along the turnpike, you can't even tell), unlike the 20-25 mile stretch between San Clemente and Oceanside, or the 25-30 mile stretch between Temecula and Escondido.
If you know which roads to take in Mercer county you can already pass from Philly to NY without going through any undeveloped area. The two metros really do touch each other there. Residents in Mercer and lower Middlesex can also choose from the two media markets.
Blah blah blah, it's actually possible that San Diego-LA metros can connect.
Such a mature response to such well thought out thread.
Tell me, smart guy, where are they going to physically connect? Why don't YOU buy a house on that corridor, why don't YOU pay for the home insurance (IE insurance against landslides and wildfires on those hillsides), and why don't YOU commute that far and tell me how you feel after a year?
Until then, you're full of it and have no clue of what you're talking about. If you've been to Central New Jersey, you'd know exactly what I was talking about.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bryson662001
If you know which roads to take in Mercer county you can already pass from Philly to NY without going through any undeveloped area. The two metros really do touch each other there. Residents in Mercer and lower Middlesex can also choose from the two media markets.
I don't doubt it. I only used US 1 as an example because I know that area pretty well. Northern Mercer County/Southern Middlesex County acts more or less like the hinge between the NYC area and the Philadelphia area.
Her numbers are off anyway, she says she gets em from Wikipedia, so did I.
By MSA
Los Angeles- 12,874,797
San Diego- 3,053,793 Los Angeles-San Diego- 15,928,590
New York- 19,069,796
Philadelphia- 5,968,252 New York-Philadelphia- 25,038,048
A combined MSA of LA and SD would still be like 3 million below just NYC alone, add in Philly and it's practically 9 million.
By CSA
Los Angeles- 17,786,419
San Diego- 3,053,793 (Same as the MSA cause it's a PCSA)/ 5,105,769 (With Tijuana) Los Angeles-San Diego- 20,840,212/ 22,892,188 (With Tijuana)
New York- 22,232,494
Philadelphia- 6,533,122 New York-Philadelphia-28,765,616
Even LA's CSA population with SD combined is still less than just NYC's CSA, and barely 2 million ahead of just NY's metro. With Philly the combined NY CSA is like 8 million ahead, almost the entire population of NY now. When you add Tijuana to LA-SD, only then does it pass (and barely) NY's CSA, and it's still like 6 million behind NY-Philly.
So I don't know how LA and SD are going to add a New York's worth of people anytime soon while NY and Philly suddenly die, stagnate, and shrink. The numbers are impossible on their own, and there's all those factors limiting LA-SD growth in the first place that Lifeshadower brought up. In short, it's not gonna happen, not any time soon.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
The cities can surpass each other within the next 2 
decades. Then at around 2025, the San Diego-LA metro can pull up of 35 mils, while if New York stays steady, they can be tied up. 
What are the odds of Los Angeles CSA's pulling away from New York. 
