Census estimates: Cuyahoga still shrinking, surrounding counties growing (Cleveland, Parma: apartment complexes, home)

[bjimmy24]

Originally Posted by 216facts

Its basically population flatline - what we've had since 1970. 50 years of no growth, which is better than 50 years of high growth - endless sprawl, clogged freeways, strip shopping centers everywhere, McMansion-boxes covering our rolling hills. This is the kind of crud that happens in places like Columbus. Granted it is happening here also, but to a much less degree due to our lack of growth, which is good.

We have the opportunity to turn golf courses into metroparks (4 that I know of so far), turn empty lots into mini neighborhood parks and gardens, buy property cheap for trail connections, live in a truly urban environment at a cost that is reasonable. We can go to an MLB/NBA/NFL game because there's seats available.

Keep that line flat - somewhere between 0 degrees and 5 degrees north of east.

That's a good way to think of it. Cleveland has its share of sprawl, and I think a lot of it is in these counties that are gaining, but still, I also think it's true that CLE has less horrible sprawl than elsewhere, and maintains a lot of its natural environment. I think in many ways a stable population is much preferable to a rapidly growing one. Cleveland has room to grow no doubt about it and I hope it does (I figure the city of Cleveland itself would ideally have 200k more people in it), but I agree, could be worse.

[mbowes80]

I'm not sure what to think about census estimates. I'm not sure how they could really capture all of the demographic dynamics happening in a relatively small area over a 10-year span.

Here are a couple of interesting reads:
https://medium.com/migration-issues/...s-d0beb458e78f
How accurate are population projections? | StatChat

In general, population projections are more accurate for large populations than for small populations (the margin of error is smaller for states than most counties), and more accurate for the near future than the distant future. The odds of being 100 percent accurate are extraordinarily low.

I think it will be interesting to see what happens to the Cleveland and Cuyahoga County numbers in the actual 2020 census. I wonder if there's any chance that Cleveland could be siphoning some population from the suburbs ... in which case that would be a city-level story not a county-level story ... and to me, a much more interesting story.

If nothing else, it would make me happy to see Cleveland's population flat-lined, with the potential to grow in the future.

[andrew61]

Originally Posted by 216facts

50 years of no growth, which is better than 50 years of high growth - endless sprawl, clogged freeways, strip shopping centers everywhere, McMansion-boxes covering our rolling hills. This is the kind of crud that happens in places like Columbus. Granted it is happening here also, but to a much less degree due to our lack of growth, which is good.

I'll stick this article here... it paints a pretty grim economic picture of Greater Cleveland:

Study: Cleveland Continues to Experience Significant Neighborhood Economic Decline, Little Measurable Growth

One of the things that shocked me upon viewing the map: a significant pocket of poverty in Strongsville.

[216facts]

Originally Posted by andrew61

I'll stick this article here... it paints a pretty grim economic picture of Greater Cleveland:

Study: Cleveland Continues to Experience Significant Neighborhood Economic Decline, Little Measurable Growth

One of the things that shocked me upon viewing the map: a significant pocket of poverty in Strongsville.

Some people, particularly young people starting their careers, need to go to one of the high growth areas of the country. I encourage it, particularly for the young. And if you like it there, stay, no questions/no smirks. Cleveland is not for everyone, I'll grant you that.

I moved to Dallas upon graduation, wasn't for me, came back up to Ohio (30 years ago.) No regrets.

I hiked this morning at Brandywine Falls, which was loaded with the spring rains, also saw a red fox trotting along the edge of a cliff. These are the things I need.

[1watertiger]

Originally Posted by andrew61

I'll stick this article here... it paints a pretty grim economic picture of Greater Cleveland:

Study: Cleveland Continues to Experience Significant Neighborhood Economic Decline, Little Measurable Growth

One of the things that shocked me upon viewing the map: a significant pocket of poverty in Strongsville.

Not sure about the Strongsville area either. Must be an error. I don’t think there are many poor people or many low income in that area. Also, the article seems to recognize Tremont only. What about the growth and development in Ohio city, Gordon Square, University Circle, hingetown, little Italy and downtown?

[HueysBack]

Originally Posted by 216facts

Its basically population flatline - what we've had since 1970. 50 years of no growth, which is better than 50 years of high growth - endless sprawl, clogged freeways, strip shopping centers everywhere, McMansion-boxes covering our rolling hills. This is the kind of crud that happens in places like Columbus. Granted it is happening here also, but to a much less degree due to our lack of growth, which is good.

We have the opportunity to turn golf courses into metroparks (4 that I know of so far), turn empty lots into mini neighborhood parks and gardens, buy property cheap for trail connections, live in a truly urban environment at a cost that is reasonable. We can go to an MLB/NBA/NFL game because there's seats available.

Keep that line flat - somewhere between 0 degrees and 5 degrees north of east.

This is a great take. It's crazy how growth is worshiped in our society.

[dr_j_planning]

Originally Posted by andrew61

I'll stick this article here... it paints a pretty grim economic picture of Greater Cleveland:

Study: Cleveland Continues to Experience Significant Neighborhood Economic Decline, Little Measurable Growth

One of the things that shocked me upon viewing the map: a significant pocket of poverty in Strongsville.

Folks, just a few caveats about this study...

The report compares 2000 Census Data with 2016 American Community Survey Data as the basis for its tables, maps and summary statements about each metropolitan areas studied. However, 2000 Census Data reflects an actual count of the population, while the 2016 ACS Data only reflects an estimate based on a sample of survey responses. Moreover, the study does not clarify which 2016 estimate the authors used: one-year versus three-year versus five-year. A 2016 one-year estimate would reflect estimates of variables such as population and income based on surveys conducted only in 2016. A 2016 three-year estimate would be based on surveys conducted in 2014, 2015 and 2016. A 2016 five-year estimate would be based on surveys conducted in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016. The 2016 one-year estimate is the most current, but the least reliable, because it is the smallest sample size. The 2016 five-year estimate is the least current, but would be the most reliable because it is the largest sample size.

If this study compared 2000 Census Data with 2016 ACS Five-Year Estimate Data, then the study is really comparing actual metropolitan Cleveland in 2000 with estimated metropolitan Cleveland in 2014 (the median year of the 2012-2016 survey data). Between 2000 and 2014, metropolitan Cleveland suburbs and city neighborhoods were hit hard by the housing crash and Great Recession of 2007-2009; they had not yet recovered. Most readers of this forum are already familiar with how metropolitan Cleveland fared during the Great Recession; there is no need for me to recapitulate.

Since the housing market bottomed out in late 2011, however, there has been considerable improvement. Just last month, HSH.com determined, according to its Home Price Recovery Index, that home values in the Cleveland-Elyria Metropolitan Statistical Area now exceed previous peak values by more than 8% (https://www.hsh.com/finance/real-est...-recovery.html). My own analysis of $300,000+ residential real estate transactions in the City of Cleveland show that the number of such sales over a 12-month period has grown from 92 in 2016 to 118 in 2017 to 175 in 2018. Early indications are that trend will continue in 2019 (184 such sales between April 2018 and March 2019).

The study does have value in its examination of the Great Recession's impact on specific city neighborhoods and suburban communities, but there is not enough recent (post-2014) data to draw any conclusive statement about the current or future state of Northeast Ohio's communities and neighborhoods. For example, even as the number of higher-priced ($300,000+) residential sales has increased in the City of Cleveland since the recession, they remain concentrated in only a handful of neighborhoods (Detroit Shoreway, Ohio City/Duck Island, Tremont, Downtown/Flats, Clifton/Edgewater, University Circle/Little Italy). It is entirely possible that an updated map might show greater concentration of wealth and greater displacement of the poor in those six neighborhoods. It would be interesting to replicate the study's maps and tables with more recent estimates and, when they become available, counts from the 2020 census.

[ClevelandBrown]

Originally Posted by 1watertiger

Not sure about the Strongsville area either. Must be an error. I don’t think there are many poor people or many low income in that area. Also, the article seems to recognize Tremont only. What about the growth and development in Ohio city, Gordon Square, University Circle, hingetown, little Italy and downtown?

I don't think that area of Strongsville is an error, especially if you look at similar census tracts in Parma Heights and Parma that show the same thing. They are all tracts that are dominated by large 1960s apartment complexes that (I believe) all now accept section 8 vouchers.

[Kamms]

Originally Posted by ClevelandBrown

I don't think that area of Strongsville is an error, especially if you look at similar census tracts in Parma Heights and Parma that show the same thing. They are all tracts that are dominated by large 1960s apartment complexes that (I believe) all now accept section 8 vouchers.

Agreed, it's happening on the west side, including the west suburbs as well.

[Kamms]

Originally Posted by 216facts

Its basically population flatline - what we've had since 1970. 50 years of no growth, which is better than 50 years of high growth - endless sprawl, clogged freeways, strip shopping centers everywhere, McMansion-boxes covering our rolling hills. This is the kind of crud that happens in places like Columbus. Granted it is happening here also, but to a much less degree due to our lack of growth, which is good.

We have the opportunity to turn golf courses into metroparks (4 that I know of so far), turn empty lots into mini neighborhood parks and gardens, buy property cheap for trail connections, live in a truly urban environment at a cost that is reasonable. We can go to an MLB/NBA/NFL game because there's seats available.

Keep that line flat - somewhere between 0 degrees and 5 degrees north of east.

Problem is Cuyahoga County's tax base is declining with sprawl out of it into the adjacent counties, especially Lorain and Medina currently. Cuyahoga County needs replacement residents with paychecks to maintain or even, hopefully, increase its tax coffers. Decline is not good. -4,500 loss or so isn't the end of the world but a +4,500 with the same growth in the collar counties would be ideal. Remember that -4,500 is in 1 year.

All those mentioned upgrades and other lifestyle amenities all cost $; taxpayers provide that $.

Not sure how reverting back to a WWII era population with a loss of almost 500,000 since 1970 is good for Cuyahoga County.