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Old 02-18-2020, 06:50 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WRnative View Post
Thanks!


K&D appears to be named after the first letter of the first name of each of the founders, Douglas Price and Karen Paganini, who are former spouses but still partners.



https://www.kandd.com/aboutus.aspx


My first 2030 prediction -- Price and Paganini, as Cleveland's preeminent real estate bottom fishers, will thrive during the 2020s. It's amazing they were able to purchase the Terminal Tower for only $38.5 million, likely with very cheap financing; what is the replacement cost of that building, even absent any premium for its iconic presence? K&D paid only $67/square foot for the TT's reported 577,000 square feet; existing office rents there must be very low.



Reading this article, I don't think Price and Paganini are anti-rail rapid, but there certainly could be information to which I'm not privy.



https://clevelandmagazine.com/in-the...tower-struggle


Why is the K&D headquarters in Willoughby? Checking out Google images of 4420 Sherwin Road, a short distance from the Kirtland Country Club, perhaps the most exclusive in Greater Cleveland, I get the appeal, especially if they are golfers. K&D seems to have a small campus there.



Barring another Great Recession, or worse, an informed worry of mine that is greatly clouding my crystal ball, downtown Cleveland real estate should continue to appreciate in the current decade, certainly powered by the proposed Sherwin-Williams complex.
To me, K&D is either anti-transit or, most generously, blissfully ignorant of it... Their sponsored literature, the Downtown and Cleveland Living magazines, focus almost solely on the Health Line and the freet Trolleys. Certainly the Trolleys are logical in terms of circulating people around downtown. But making the Health Line the panacea (given its many problems which I'll focus on in the RTA thread) and not mentioning rail hardly at all is, at best, weird. Btw, in Downtown Living, where they talk about one of their newest acquisitions -- Terminal Tower residences -- they only mention the Waterfront Line for some reason. Wouldn't you think they'd reference sitting directly on top of a heavy rail station that provides 25-minute, door-to-door (totally indoor, largely temperature controlled) service to Hopkins International Airport... but no.

If you read various web reviews of K&D's Cleveland apartments, especially those downtown, constant criticism is their seeming ignorance of urban planning, as opposed to suburban-style orientation -- ie dead parking garage walls along sidewalks with no ground-level retail. At one of their signature buildings, The Residences at 668, they built a driveway with leading to an underground parking garage facing Euclid with a restaurant and plaza, set back away from the street -- which was Hodges Restaurant which recently closed, probably because of low visibility and light patronage compared to other spaces nearby... And yes, K&D's having their headquarters in Willoughby Hills -- in the next county -- seems consistent with this.

Last edited by TheProf; 02-18-2020 at 07:40 PM..
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Old 02-18-2020, 09:25 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheProf View Post
To me, K&D is either anti-transit or, most generously, blissfully ignorant of it... Their sponsored literature, the Downtown and Cleveland Living magazines, focus almost solely on the Health Line and the freet Trolleys. Certainly the Trolleys are logical in terms of circulating people around downtown. But making the Health Line the panacea (given its many problems which I'll focus on in the RTA thread) and not mentioning rail hardly at all is, at best, weird. Btw, in Downtown Living, where they talk about one of their newest acquisitions -- Terminal Tower residences -- they only mention the Waterfront Line for some reason. Wouldn't you think they'd reference sitting directly on top of a heavy rail station that provides 25-minute, door-to-door (totally indoor, largely temperature controlled) service to Hopkins International Airport... but no.

If you read various web reviews of K&D's Cleveland apartments, especially those downtown, constant criticism is their seeming ignorance of urban planning, as opposed to suburban-style orientation -- ie dead parking garage walls along sidewalks with no ground-level retail. At one of their signature buildings, The Residences at 668, they built a driveway with leading to an underground parking garage facing Euclid with a restaurant and plaza, set back away from the street -- which was Hodges Restaurant which recently closed, probably because of low visibility and light patronage compared to other spaces nearby... And yes, K&D's having their headquarters in Willoughby Hills -- in the next county -- seems consistent with this.

It sounds like you should arrange a meet-and-greet with someone at K&D. Their acquisition timing seems very good, but it does sound as if they have a somewhat flawed business model for their downtown properties. Maybe you could get a consulting gig!



My hunch is that their omission in Terminal Tower marketing of any discussion of the Red Line (especially for Little Italy, Ohio City and the airport) and Blue/Green line connection to Shaker Square and perhaps even the Van Aken District reflects ignorance. But if you're going to the Art Museum and Severance Hall, especially in bad weather, the Healthline does reduce the amount of walking versus using the Red Line stations. For the Cleveland Clinic, and likely even University Hospitals, the Healthline is a no-brainer.
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Old 02-18-2020, 11:11 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WRnative View Post
It sounds like you should arrange a meet-and-greet with someone at K&D. Their acquisition timing seems very good, but it does sound as if they have a somewhat flawed business model for their downtown properties. Maybe you could get a consulting gig!



My hunch is that their omission in Terminal Tower marketing of any discussion of the Red Line (especially for Little Italy, Ohio City and the airport) and Blue/Green line connection to Shaker Square and perhaps even the Van Aken District reflects ignorance. But if you're going to the Art Museum (CMA) and Severance Hall, especially in bad weather, the Healthline does reduce the amount of walking versus using the Red Line stations. For the Cleveland Clinic, and likely even University Hospitals, the Healthline is a no-brainer.
I'm not saying the Healthline is without utility. I've used it to get to Playhouse Square as well as various buildings on CSU's campus after taking a Blue or Green Line Rapid into Tower City (just highlight, once again, that Albert Porter's helping kill the 3-to-1 voter approved subway, is gift that perpetually keeps on giving!) -- it most certainly is, especially to the Clinic and it is somewhat closer to the Art Museum than the Red Line's Little Italy-Univ. Circle stop.

That said, I've taken the Red Line a couple times to the Art Museum since the Little Italy stop opened, and the walk is hardly arduous and not that much farther than the Health Line (and on weekdays through rush hour, UCI "greenie" buses connect the Little Italy station to just about anywhere in Univ. Circle, with a direct route to CMA ... it was nearly 100 degrees that day, and my friend refused to walk back to Little Italy so we 'greenie' bused back -- we were staying at a downtown hotel that time). Not only that, the Red Line, even during rush hour, gets to Little Italy about 15 minutes (sometimes 14 and almost never more than 16-17 mins) whereas the Healthline usually takes 25-30 minutes from Public Square, esp locals stupid policies of no traffic signal priority or the Proof of Payment (POP) fare policy, meaning that everybody must go up front and pay the driver fares, just like in the slow olden days (and this includes people who enter the rear doors on the left hand side, who must walk through the bus to get up front... and often drivers wait until the fares are paid until he/she leaves -- what a mess!).

To me, it is embarrassing for local officials and travel people to constantly tout the HL with all these flaws while often remaining silent about the Rapid (the rail/real one, that is), which despite it's flaws, gets riders quickly and comfortably to a whole lot of cool neighborhoods and tourist attractions.
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Old 02-19-2020, 07:42 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheProf View Post
I'm not saying the Healthline is without utility. I've used it to get to Playhouse Square as well as various buildings on CSU's campus after taking a Blue or Green Line Rapid into Tower City (just highlight, once again, that Albert Porter's helping kill the 3-to-1 voter approved subway, is gift that perpetually keeps on giving!) -- it most certainly is, especially to the Clinic and it is somewhat closer to the Art Museum than the Red Line's Little Italy-Univ. Circle stop.

That said, I've taken the Red Line a couple times to the Art Museum since the Little Italy stop opened, and the walk is hardly arduous and not that much farther than the Health Line (and on weekdays through rush hour, UCI "greenie" buses connect the Little Italy station to just about anywhere in Univ. Circle, with a direct route to CMA ... it was nearly 100 degrees that day, and my friend refused to walk back to Little Italy so we 'greenie' bused back -- we were staying at a downtown hotel that time). Not only that, the Red Line, even during rush hour, gets to Little Italy about 15 minutes (sometimes 14 and almost never more than 16-17 mins) whereas the Healthline usually takes 25-30 minutes from Public Square, esp locals stupid policies of no traffic signal priority or the Proof of Payment (POP) fare policy, meaning that everybody must go up front and pay the driver fares, just like in the slow olden days (and this includes people who enter the rear doors on the left hand side, who must walk through the bus to get up front... and often drivers wait until the fares are paid until he/she leaves -- what a mess!).

To me, it is embarrassing for local officials and travel people to constantly tout the HL with all these flaws while often remaining silent about the Rapid (the rail/real one, that is), which despite it's flaws, gets riders quickly and comfortably to a whole lot of cool neighborhoods and tourist attractions.

The walk to the art museum from the Little Italy rapid station is 12 minutes; from the Euclid Ave. & Alderbert Healthline stop, it is 4 minutes, both according to Google Transit. The walk back to the Little Italy rapid station involves a steep, although short, jaunt up Mayfield Road from Euclid Ave.



If in Tower City, or very nearby, the Red Line may be preferred option. From other points in downtown close to Euclid Ave., the Healthline probably is preferred because the walk to the Tower City rail hub isn't necessary. If connecting to the Red Line or Healthline using a free downtown trolley to Public Square, the Red Line certainly is a good option.


I've never used a "Greenie." When I've looked at the service, the frequency never seemed that great and with many stops, and, lacking experience, I just never used it; perhaps a mistake that I should rectify. I do wonder if the University Circle Red Line station would be better if using a "Greenie" to and from the art museum; it's only a one minute further walk, avoiding the steep Mayfield Road climb back to the Little Italy station.



Google Transit doesn't comprehend the "Greenies." For those wanting to use mass transit between the Little Italy station and the CMA, GT recommends the use of the Mayfield Road #9 bus from the station to Euclid Ave. and Adelbert. Of course, this involves waiting for the #9 and possibly a new fare if not using an RTA pass fare.


I only use the Healthline a couple times a year, at most, most typically from the Cleveland Clinic main parking garage, after a Clinic appointment, to downtown and back. What I particularly enjoy is seeing the transformation on Euclid Ave. and in the MidTown corridor. A stop at Gallucci's is another reason to use the Healthline, if using a pass and therefore avoiding a new fare. I greatly enjoy the flexibility that day passes provide when using RTA, especially given the lower fare cost for seniors!
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Old 02-19-2020, 08:49 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WRnative View Post
The walk to the art museum from the Little Italy rapid station is 12 minutes; from the Euclid Ave. & Alderbert Healthline stop, it is 4 minutes, both according to Google Transit. The walk back to the Little Italy rapid station involves a steep, although short, jaunt up Mayfield Road from Euclid Ave.



If in Tower City, or very nearby, the Red Line may be preferred option. From other points in downtown close to Euclid Ave., the Healthline probably is preferred because the walk to the Tower City rail hub isn't necessary. If connecting to the Red Line or Healthline using a free downtown trolley to Public Square, the Red Line certainly is a good option.


I've never used a "Greenie." When I've looked at the service, the frequency never seemed that great and with many stops, and, lacking experience, I just never used it; perhaps a mistake that I should rectify. I do wonder if the University Circle Red Line station would be better if using a "Greenie" to and from the art museum; it's only a one minute further walk, avoiding the steep Mayfield Road climb back to the Little Italy station.



Google Transit doesn't comprehend the "Greenies." For those wanting to use mass transit between the Little Italy station and the CMA, GT recommends the use of the Mayfield Road #9 bus from the station to Euclid Ave. and Adelbert. Of course, this involves waiting for the #9 and possibly a new fare if not using an RTA pass fare.


I only use the Healthline a couple times a year, at most, most typically from the Cleveland Clinic main parking garage, after a Clinic appointment, to downtown and back. What I particularly enjoy is seeing the transformation on Euclid Ave. and in the MidTown corridor. A stop at Gallucci's is another reason to use the Healthline, if using a pass and therefore avoiding a new fare. I greatly enjoy the flexibility that day passes provide when using RTA, especially given the lower fare cost for seniors!
Most of the places I frequent downtown (or stay in when I stay down there) are west of E. 9th Street. For me, the Rapid is so much quicker and more pleasant than the HL, I'd use it for any trip to visit places all the way up to 9th -- but it's usually no farther east than E. 4th (a block from Tower City), TC itself, the new Hilton or the Flats (mainly East Bank),... or Ohio City. The Red Line trumps the HL for any of these. The one time we visited Gallucci's it was via car. Midtown is much nicer since they've cleaned up the blight existing in the 1980s/90s, but it still feels like a quiet, empty ghost town; much easier to drive there than using the HL imho... and I'm a transit guy.

... I know the 'dip' you mean at the Little Italy station. It's not too bad... It appears that, way-back-when the RR tracks crossed Mayfield road at grade, but sometime around World War I the tracks were grade separated -- the tracks were kept level, but Mayfield Rd dipped under the tracks where were placed on a bridge... Not sure the Van Sweringen companies did this because, as you may know, the bought the old Nicklel Plate RR (to gain right of way access to Public Square for their new Shaker Heights Rapid line... In the process, they began building a new crosstown Rapid next to the Nickel Plate RR to the east and west of their new Terminal Tower/Union Station ... the Depression ended those plans, but the City of Cleveland eventually took over the route during WWII and finished building what eventually became the Red Line... The station foundation for the Little Italy station (termed the vault) was actually built by the Vans, but never used ... until RTA decided to relocate the dilapidated, little used Euclid-E. 120th St station to Little Italy; and used the old Van-built vault as the core of the new station which opened late summer 2015 -- just in time for crowds attending LI's Feast of the Assumption.
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Old 02-29-2020, 12:16 PM
 
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Default Climate change migration, relatively low housing costs, fresh water

I've put off providing my projections because I was contemplating the probability of the Great Climate Change Migration beginning in this decade. Recent news stories about accelerating ocean heat content; the vulnerability of the Antarctic ice sheet, much of it anchored below sea level, to surrounding oceans already above the melting point of ice and still warming; the significant evidence of mounting methane releases in the Arctic from permafrost melt and the initiation of other dire natural feedback loops; and massive deferred infrastructure costs in states like Florida compounded by the increasing need for new infrastructure such as sea walls, pump stations and raised roads, are just some of the factors that now suggest to me that the Great Climate Change Migration will begin in this decade, but I'm not certain about the magnitude in this decade (I believe the climate migration will be much, much more significant in subsequent decades).

See post 4 in this thread for my explanation of why I believe the climate change migration will begin this decade.

https://www.city-data.com/forum/clev...t-primary.html

Not emphasized in that post are the great costs to be incurred by private property owners, including businesses, and local governments as sea level rise accelerates.

<<While much of that cost will be borne by private property owners, local governments will incur significant expenses to protect roads and other infrastructure. Things aren’t much better for Sarasota County, where the cost of new sea walls is estimated to be roughly $1.2 billion.>>

https://www.heraldtribune.com/news/2...ta-and-manatee

It seems possible that sea level rise may be inches per year by late in the decade with the rate still accelerating even if, which appears unlikely, mankind transitions rapidly to a fossil free global economy. How attractive will coastal communities and states be when beaches and coastal areas are inundated, erosion and infrastructure costs soar, and property values collapse? Substantial revenues resulting from development likely will plummet as the desirability of living in coastal areas or more southern states (rising atmospheric temperatures and humidity) declines significantly.

If the U.S. transitions to a fossil free economy, such as with a carbon tax now proposed by all Democratic Presidential candidates, severance taxes from fossil fuel production will plummet in states such as Texas. Will income taxes become a necessity in Texas, making the ever hotter and more humid (yet drier in some regions of the state) Texas climate a more unbearable living condition?

Fresh water shortages will increase in the U.S.

So Great Lakes states, especially with the decline of its harsh winters, will be likely havens. Cleveland, with its superb bones and great cultural and pro sports amenities and especially with its currently relatively low cost of housing, will be an immediate beneficiary.

See post 1 here for a discussion of the decline in Cleveland winters and why its weather may eventually resemble that of Barcelona, Spain.

https://www.city-data.com/forum/clev...east-ohio.html

So here are my projections for 2030.

Population will increase by about 10 percent: City of Cleveland 450,000; Greater Cleveland 2,300,000; CSA 3,700,000. I expect Cleveland's population to outpace the region due to the impact of an inevitable national carbon tax. If higher transportation costs result from a carbon tax, very likely, higher density residential areas served by more robust mass transit should benefit, boosting Cleveland's relative growth. Similarly, I anticipate Cuyahoga County population growing from 1.25 million now to 1.4 million, with much of the population growth in Cleveland.

Downtown's population will reach 35,000. Greater University Circle will see significant development and gentrification in Glenville, Hough and perhaps in an annexed East Cleveland. One risk that lies ahead is Medicare-for-all, which may reduce the financial vitality of the University Circle medical economy even though it may be good economic policy for the nation; my understanding is that Medicare reimbursement levels are much less than for private insurance.

Housing prices will soar over 50 percent in Greater Cleveland over the next decade, perhaps more if inflation becomes an issue. Rents will soar downtown and in University Circle, justifying new construction.

Cleveland and Greater Cleveland's prosperity will increase relative to the rest of the nation, but the standard of living may not be as high as today. E.g., global fisheries already are declining and the cost of food may rise faster than overall inflation, especially as global demand is increased. Prosperity will decline, perhaps rapidly, in some prosperous states, especially coastal states such as low-lying Florida and states such as Texas with strong fossil fuel economies.

I expect Lake Erie pollution to be resolved as political pressure already is increasing. What is needed is a competent environmentalist candidate winning election as governor. Income inequality will be a major problem in Cleveland, throughout the region, and in the U.S. The only good solution is a massive tax reform (see post 4 in the following thread) that actually promotes American competitiveness, and my oft-explained perception is that neither Congress nor the major political parties grasp what is needed and are willing to commit political capital to the issue. The result may be dire for the U.S. economy and for its military and diplomatic leadership (what's left of it), especially if China obtains leadership in semiconductors, robotics, and artificial intelligence, which sadly seems like a good bet. If Cleveland and Ohio and other Great Lakes communities and states become Florida-like haven communities amid a much more distressed nation, I don't like that future much.

https://www.city-data.com/forum/ohio...rformance.html

Sadly IMO, winters will have almost disappeared from northeast Ohio by 2030, with a very negative impact on Lake Erie, where fecundity depends upon seasonal churning with water temperatures falling below 38 degrees F. The region's maple sugar industry may be on its last legs IF still viable. Winter temperatures will very rarely fall below 20 degrees. Western Reserve communities will cut back on their snow removal and road treatment capabilities, eventually resembling those of say Columbus and Cincinnati. Spring MLB baseball will be much more popular in Cleveland. An indoor ski resort probably will be built.

Most sadly, Cleveland's great old-growth forests, many national natural landmarks, will be greatly imperiled, devastating local parks. This will result from invasive species, including viruses and bacteria that already are a major issue, and a decline in the winter kill-off provided by very cold winters, allowing new non-native species to gain destructive footholds.

https://www.wtol.com/article/news/lo...6-e907196f1215

https://www.opb.org/news/article/dea...gon-fir-trees/

Kudzu already is moving north in Ohio. The spotted lanternfly already is in western PA posing a massive threat to our orchards and vineyards.

https://www.post-gazette.com/life/ou...s/201910060043

The deadly "kissing bug" also may reach the Western Reserve in this decade.

https://patch.com/pennsylvania/pitts...ug-reported-pa

The Lake Erie swimming season, with lifeguards on beaches on September weekends, will be extend well beyond Labor Day. I'm not certain what will happen to fish species in Lake Erie but there will be substantial impacts.

The most surprising development in the 2020s will be the impact of the accelerating climate change onslaught on mankind, including northern Ohioans. A massive federal government fiscal crisis will ravage the nation, resulting in a relative depreciation of the dollar, higher inflation, and perhaps a resurgence in U.S. manufacture, which may still benefit Greater Cleveland relative to the rest of the nation. Mass transit autonomous vehicles which cut labor costs may significantly boost mass transit; with its rail and bus rapids, RTA may be able to develop a hub-and-spoke system.

Amazon just launched a cashier-less grocery store. Artificial intelligence, including autonomous long-distance trucks, may greatly reduce employment in many currently large employment sectors. Improved education and job training will be essential, but Ohio currently is starving public schools and lowering its testing standards. Madness IMO:

https://www.cleveland.com/news/2020/...ents-plan.html

Lower quality public schools will impair Ohio's economic competitiveness and greatly increase income disparities, especially with the mounting impact of artificial intelligence on employment.

So the biggest changes coming in this decade: climate change impacts onslaught globally, massive impact of new technologies on employment opportunities, and the beginning of the Great Climate Change Migration. Sadly, it also appears that American democracy is under severe duress, especially given the decline in journalism and the polarization of the electorate.

Climate change impacts may kill the Republican Party when combined with massive demographic changes now underway. While the Democratic Party survived slavery and the Civil War, this was because of its great political support among southern whites who still embraced the Lost Cause. It's unlikely that were will be many climate change deniers in 2030, and much of the electorate may hold Republicans greatly culpable for the calamity at hand. Hopefully, a new centrist political party dealing in honest, tough solutions to major problems will emerge in this decade, with a rapidity not seen since the emergence of the Republican Party in the 1850s.

Last edited by WRnative; 02-29-2020 at 12:54 PM..
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Old 02-29-2020, 04:41 PM
 
3,640 posts, read 3,628,047 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WRnative View Post
I've put off providing my projections because I was contemplating the probability of the Great Climate Change Migration beginning in this decade. Recent news stories about accelerating ocean heat content; the vulnerability of the Antarctic ice sheet, much of it anchored below sea level, to surrounding oceans already above the melting point of ice and still warming; the significant evidence of mounting methane releases in the Arctic from permafrost melt and the initiation of other dire natural feedback loops; and massive deferred infrastructure costs in states like Florida compounded by the increasing need for new infrastructure such as sea walls, pump stations and raised roads, are just some of the factors that now suggest to me that the Great Climate Change Migration will begin in this decade, but I'm not certain about the magnitude in this decade (I believe the climate migration will be much, much more significant in subsequent decades).

See post 4 in this thread for my explanation of why I believe the climate change migration will begin this decade.

https://www.city-data.com/forum/clev...t-primary.html

Not emphasized in that post are the great costs to be incurred by private property owners, including businesses, and local governments as sea level rise accelerates.

<<While much of that cost will be borne by private property owners, local governments will incur significant expenses to protect roads and other infrastructure. Things aren’t much better for Sarasota County, where the cost of new sea walls is estimated to be roughly $1.2 billion.>>

https://www.heraldtribune.com/news/2...ta-and-manatee

It seems possible that sea level rise may be inches per year by late in the decade with the rate still accelerating even if, which appears unlikely, mankind transitions rapidly to a fossil free global economy. How attractive will coastal communities and states be when beaches and coastal areas are inundated, erosion and infrastructure costs soar, and property values collapse? Substantial revenues resulting from development likely will plummet as the desirability of living in coastal areas or more southern states (rising atmospheric temperatures and humidity) declines significantly.

If the U.S. transitions to a fossil free economy, such as with a carbon tax now proposed by all Democratic Presidential candidates, severance taxes from fossil fuel production will plummet in states such as Texas. Will income taxes become a necessity in Texas, making the ever hotter and more humid (yet drier in some regions of the state) Texas climate a more unbearable living condition?

Fresh water shortages will increase in the U.S.

So Great Lakes states, especially with the decline of its harsh winters, will be likely havens. Cleveland, with its superb bones and great cultural and pro sports amenities and especially with its currently relatively low cost of housing, will be an immediate beneficiary.

See post 1 here for a discussion of the decline in Cleveland winters and why its weather may eventually resemble that of Barcelona, Spain.

https://www.city-data.com/forum/clev...east-ohio.html

So here are my projections for 2030.

Population will increase by about 10 percent: City of Cleveland 450,000; Greater Cleveland 2,300,000; CSA 3,700,000. I expect Cleveland's population to outpace the region due to the impact of an inevitable national carbon tax. If higher transportation costs result from a carbon tax, very likely, higher density residential areas served by more robust mass transit should benefit, boosting Cleveland's relative growth. Similarly, I anticipate Cuyahoga County population growing from 1.25 million now to 1.4 million, with much of the population growth in Cleveland.

Downtown's population will reach 35,000. Greater University Circle will see significant development and gentrification in Glenville, Hough and perhaps in an annexed East Cleveland. One risk that lies ahead is Medicare-for-all, which may reduce the financial vitality of the University Circle medical economy even though it may be good economic policy for the nation; my understanding is that Medicare reimbursement levels are much less than for private insurance.

Housing prices will soar over 50 percent in Greater Cleveland over the next decade, perhaps more if inflation becomes an issue. Rents will soar downtown and in University Circle, justifying new construction.

Cleveland and Greater Cleveland's prosperity will increase relative to the rest of the nation, but the standard of living may not be as high as today. E.g., global fisheries already are declining and the cost of food may rise faster than overall inflation, especially as global demand is increased. Prosperity will decline, perhaps rapidly, in some prosperous states, especially coastal states such as low-lying Florida and states such as Texas with strong fossil fuel economies.

I expect Lake Erie pollution to be resolved as political pressure already is increasing. What is needed is a competent environmentalist candidate winning election as governor. Income inequality will be a major problem in Cleveland, throughout the region, and in the U.S. The only good solution is a massive tax reform (see post 4 in the following thread) that actually promotes American competitiveness, and my oft-explained perception is that neither Congress nor the major political parties grasp what is needed and are willing to commit political capital to the issue. The result may be dire for the U.S. economy and for its military and diplomatic leadership (what's left of it), especially if China obtains leadership in semiconductors, robotics, and artificial intelligence, which sadly seems like a good bet. If Cleveland and Ohio and other Great Lakes communities and states become Florida-like haven communities amid a much more distressed nation, I don't like that future much.

https://www.city-data.com/forum/ohio...rformance.html

Sadly IMO, winters will have almost disappeared from northeast Ohio by 2030, with a very negative impact on Lake Erie, where fecundity depends upon seasonal churning with water temperatures falling below 38 degrees F. The region's maple sugar industry may be on its last legs IF still viable. Winter temperatures will very rarely fall below 20 degrees. Western Reserve communities will cut back on their snow removal and road treatment capabilities, eventually resembling those of say Columbus and Cincinnati. Spring MLB baseball will be much more popular in Cleveland. An indoor ski resort probably will be built.

Most sadly, Cleveland's great old-growth forests, many national natural landmarks, will be greatly imperiled, devastating local parks. This will result from invasive species, including viruses and bacteria that already are a major issue, and a decline in the winter kill-off provided by very cold winters, allowing new non-native species to gain destructive footholds.

https://www.wtol.com/article/news/lo...6-e907196f1215

https://www.opb.org/news/article/dea...gon-fir-trees/

Kudzu already is moving north in Ohio. The spotted lanternfly already is in western PA posing a massive threat to our orchards and vineyards.

https://www.post-gazette.com/life/ou...s/201910060043

The deadly "kissing bug" also may reach the Western Reserve in this decade.

https://patch.com/pennsylvania/pitts...ug-reported-pa

The Lake Erie swimming season, with lifeguards on beaches on September weekends, will be extend well beyond Labor Day. I'm not certain what will happen to fish species in Lake Erie but there will be substantial impacts.

The most surprising development in the 2020s will be the impact of the accelerating climate change onslaught on mankind, including northern Ohioans. A massive federal government fiscal crisis will ravage the nation, resulting in a relative depreciation of the dollar, higher inflation, and perhaps a resurgence in U.S. manufacture, which may still benefit Greater Cleveland relative to the rest of the nation. Mass transit autonomous vehicles which cut labor costs may significantly boost mass transit; with its rail and bus rapids, RTA may be able to develop a hub-and-spoke system.

Amazon just launched a cashier-less grocery store. Artificial intelligence, including autonomous long-distance trucks, may greatly reduce employment in many currently large employment sectors. Improved education and job training will be essential, but Ohio currently is starving public schools and lowering its testing standards. Madness IMO:

https://www.cleveland.com/news/2020/...ents-plan.html

Lower quality public schools will impair Ohio's economic competitiveness and greatly increase income disparities, especially with the mounting impact of artificial intelligence on employment.

So the biggest changes coming in this decade: climate change impacts onslaught globally, massive impact of new technologies on employment opportunities, and the beginning of the Great Climate Change Migration. Sadly, it also appears that American democracy is under severe duress, especially given the decline in journalism and the polarization of the electorate.

Climate change impacts may kill the Republican Party when combined with massive demographic changes now underway. While the Democratic Party survived slavery and the Civil War, this was because of its great political support among southern whites who still embraced the Lost Cause. It's unlikely that were will be many climate change deniers in 2030, and much of the electorate may hold Republicans greatly culpable for the calamity at hand. Hopefully, a new centrist political party dealing in honest, tough solutions to major problems will emerge in this decade, with a rapidity not seen since the emergence of the Republican Party in the 1850s.
Very comprehensive, well-researched post... I will slice and dice and comment more, later... My quick reaction to your climate comments is that they are positively frightening; not just for Greater Cleveland (if winter disappears) but for the world... I sure you're wrong on this...
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Old 02-29-2020, 05:39 PM
 
Location: Cleveland
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WRnative, that last post is very optimistic and very pessimistic at the same time. I could see some of the projections occurring in 40 years, but 10 years is just not that long. Fear is an easy thing to sell, and a lot of news organizations, political groups, public action committees, advertisers, etc. - they all take advantage of this.

If I look back on the last 10 years, it seems like a short blip. I have a hard time buying most of those population estimates. And the climate change stuff - I don't know, seems way too dire.
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Old 02-29-2020, 06:57 PM
 
9,786 posts, read 6,594,781 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 216facts View Post
WRnative, that last post is very optimistic and very pessimistic at the same time. I could see some of the projections occurring in 40 years, but 10 years is just not that long. Fear is an easy thing to sell, and a lot of news organizations, political groups, public action committees, advertisers, etc. - they all take advantage of this.

If I look back on the last 10 years, it seems like a short blip. I have a hard time buying most of those population estimates. And the climate change stuff - I don't know, seems way too dire.
Here are the linked articles that most influenced my projections, most of them published only in 2020. If you haven't read them and considered them carefully, do so. Then re-read my projection post, where these threads were linked, or nested in other threads that were linked, and I explained how these articles influenced my projections.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51097309

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com...story-in-2019/

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2954/n...hane-hotspots/

I linked the following Wikipedia article to explain the dire significance of the immediately preceding and recently released and shocking NASA research. When NASA finds 2 million Arctic atmospheric hot spots with methane readings of 3,000 parts per million compared to general methane levels of less than 2 parts per million (1,866 per billion) in the general atmosphere, I worry.

<<The sudden release of large amounts of natural gas from methane clathrate deposits in runaway climate change could be a cause of past, future, and present climate changes. The release of this trapped methane is a potential major outcome of a rise in temperature; some have suggested that this was a main factor in the planet warming 6 °C, which happened during the end-Permian extinction,[20] as methane is much more powerful as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. Despite its atmospheric lifetime of around 12 years, it has a global warming potential of 72 over 20 years, 25 over 100 years, and 33 when accounted for aerosol interactions.[21] The theory also predicts this will greatly affect available oxygen and hydroxyl radical content of the atmosphere....

Shakhova et al. (2008) estimate that not less than 1,400 gigatonnes of carbon is presently locked up as methane and methane hydrates under the Arctic submarine permafrost, and 5–10% of that area is subject to puncturing by open taliks. They conclude that "release of up to 50 gigatonnes of predicted amount of hydrate storage [is] highly possible for abrupt release at any time". That would increase the methane content of the planet's atmosphere by a factor of twelve,[39][40] equivalent in greenhouse effect to a doubling in the current level of CO2.>>

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis

<<Global methane concentrations rose from 722 parts per billion (ppb) in pre-industrial times to 1866 ppb by 2019,[8] an increase by a factor of 2.5 and the highest value in at least 800,000 years.[9] Its concentration is higher in the Northern Hemisphere since most sources (both natural and human) are located on land and the Northern Hemisphere has more land mass.>>

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_methane

From this past November:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/chunkam.../#3fdd31394f50

Most of this input was new to my thinking in the last six months, and, candidly, suggests to me that the NOAA global mean sea level (GMSL) projections, with possibly 12 inches or more by 2030, are too conservative. The NOAA projections imply by the end of the decade over one inch of sea level rise annually, and I can't imagine how over a foot of additional inundation of coastal areas, and accelerating sea level rates from over an inch per year, won't greatly degrade the coastal living equation, especially if more powerful hurricanes are factored into the mix along with much greater financial risk both to individuals and coastal communities and states.

https://www.wlrn.org/post/new-sea-le...aster#stream/0

When NASA sometime in late summer begins to release GMSL satellite readings reflecting the height of the 2020 Antarctic ice melt season, I'll begin to see if my concerns are justified. Will measured sea level rise for the 12 months ended in May exceed 1/2 inch or more? Record warm temperatures have been reported for Antarctica recently....

We've seen massive migrations of human beings, e.g., millions of Syrians, in just a few years. Over 13 of 22 million Syrians were displaced in the 2010s.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refuge...rian_Civil_War

As I noted in my projection post, the population of Mentor increased from 4,354 in 1960 to 35,912 in 1970!

Ten years is a long time. Imagine the repercussions if a major U.S. population center experiences something like last year's Hurricane Dorian, or worse, as the oceans continue to warm resulting in ever greater hurricane rapid intensification.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Dorian

Given my career and investment activities, I'm used to thinking in terms of Black Swan events. They require ignorance, denial, and/or at least complacency. When it comes to climate change, those two attributes currently exist in abundance in the U.S., even as European scientists are discussing the damming of the North Sea!

https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0228102232.htm

Boris Johnson, often considered the British Trump, has implemented a ban on new gasoline and hybrid vehicle sales beginning in 2035.

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/u...-vehicle-2035/

Much of the U.S. media self-censors or worse (Fox media outlets) regarding climate change, so it's not surprising that we have tens of millions of climate change deniers in the U.S., including many powerful politicians. I don't know of any media outlets in the U.S. spreading climate change fear, which IMO is good, objective journalism, except possibly New York Magazine.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2017...or-humans.html

Certainly the Washington Post, National Geographic and Smithsonian Magazine have published articles that should be wake-up calls for all Americans.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...ange-tasmania/

Those watching Fox News regularly, and believe what is being said, I suspect they still largely believe that climate change is an exaggeration, a conspiracy of scientists, and/or "fake news," or a hoax. Empirical data and peer-reviewed scientific analysis, even personal observations and historical knowledge, be damned. The reality is that Fox New makes billions by suppressing what should be feared.

https://www.theinvadingsea.com/2019/...is-threatened/

BTW, Cleveland's population fell 177,000 thousand from 1970 to 1980. My projection calls for an increase of only 65,000 during the 2020s despite a U.S. population that is 45 percent larger than in 1980.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cleveland

Florida's population alone is 12 million greater than in 1980, and my expectation is that Cleveland will be a destination city for persons living on ocean coasts from the Mexican border to the Canadian border, but especially from more southern coastal states. If my fears are realized, what happens between 2030 and 2040 will dwarf what will be seen in the 2020s.

In case you don't think Americans will notice the expected, let alone the possible, amount of sea level rise, read this article.

https://therealdeal.com/2020/02/01/c...sive-stadiums/

I wouldn't be surprised if by 2030, and certainly by 2040, if Columbus doesn't pick up an MLB, NFL or NBA franchise. That might have an impact on Cleveland sports that I hadn't considered until now.

My prediction is that we'll hear much about the Thwaites Glacier in the 2020s.

<<They are also concerned that the melting of the large coastal glacier could expose some inland glaciers nearby to further melting, causing sea levels to rise by up to 6 feet (2 m).>>

https://www.livescience.com/why-gian...g-so-fast.html

https://eos.org/articles/glacial-ear...me-on-thwaites

Will it become a household word, especially in Florida?

Last edited by WRnative; 02-29-2020 at 08:24 PM..
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Old 03-01-2020, 05:25 PM
 
Location: Cleveland
922 posts, read 536,855 times
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Interesting. I am now more pessimistic on climate change in the next 10 years: coastal flooding, storm damage, and droughts will be more severe than I had assumed. No doubt we are going to witness some awesome changes in our climate for the rest of our lives. Lets hope we don't see another worldwide depression or world conflict that would put our other, more optimistic projections to bed.
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