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Old 02-16-2020, 07:51 AM
 
9,786 posts, read 6,594,781 times
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What are your predictions about Greater Cleveland for 2030?

What will the population be for Cleveland (now 385,000 est.), the Greater Cleveland MSA (2018 2,057,000 est.), the Greater Cleveland CSA (2018 est. 3,483,000 est.)? Will a Great Climate Change Migration be under way by 2030 with Greater Cleveland experiencing net inward migration?

https://www.cleveland.com/datacentra...elands_po.html

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/...html?src=bkmk#

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/...html?src=bkmk#


What will be the condition of downtown and University Circle?

What level of relative prosperity will Greater Cleveland have in 2030 relative to the rest of the nation?

What will be the major issues in 2030 in Greater Cleveland? What issues will be specific to Greater Cleveland versus the nation?

How will climate change have impacted the Greater Cleveland environment, if at all?

What will be the most surprising developments during the 2020s?

Anything else?

Game on, with the winner announced a decade from now!

Tips:

See number 10 here!

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019...the-2020s.html

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ng/2594825001/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevefo.../#2bd8796f9730

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...-2020s/605902/

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...edictions.html

https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...will-top-them/

The singularity, exascale computers, block chain

https://www.futuretimeline.net/21stc.../2020-2029.htm

Last edited by WRnative; 02-16-2020 at 08:29 AM..
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Old 02-16-2020, 05:21 PM
 
Location: Cleveland
922 posts, read 536,855 times
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My take on a few of these:

Will a Great Climate Change Migration be under way by 2030 with Greater Cleveland experiencing net inward migration? Nothing significant if at all. I don't think people will be moving hundreds of miles to avoid this. At most they will be moving a few miles, if they have to at all. Ten years out is just too short of a time frame for this to have a big impact.

What will be the condition of downtown and University Circle? It will continue to get better, maintaining the trend of the last 2 decades. I will go far out on a limb and say downtown will have 30k residents by 2030. This will require an increase in the rate of downtown population. I predict 3 more towers similar to Lumen/Beacon in the next 10 years. This along with continued residential building near the lakefront. University Circle will continue to expand, particularly CCF into Hough. The healthline will continue to be a great public transportation artery between downtown and UC.

What level of relative prosperity will Greater Cleveland have in 2030 relative to the rest of the nation? About the same as it is now, which is not the worst nor best. Cleveland population will be at 375,000 but with improved demographics - a little. The inner ring suburbs, particularly to the southeast, will continue to decline (Garfield, Maple, Bedford, Warrensville, etc.)

What will be the major issues in 2030 in Greater Cleveland? Crime in the eastside neighborhoods and the southeast suburbs I mentioned above. Educational attainment for children, particularly in Cleveland and SE suburbs mentioned.

What will be the most surprising developments during the 2020s? The RTA will close the Waterfront line. Burke Airport will close but not be developed until the next decade. There will be less than 5 days out of the year that Cleveland beaches will close due to poor water conditions. (assumes we deal with algae problem, sewer district on track to accomplish this otherwise.) The metroparks will have 27,000+ acres under management. The redline greenway will cross the Cuyahoga. Crime in Ohio City and Tremont decreases while crime in eastside neighborhoods is still a big problem.

Well, that's a decent amount of optimism with a little reality thrown in.
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Old 02-16-2020, 06:29 PM
 
3,640 posts, read 3,628,047 times
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What will the population be for Cleveland (now 385,000 est.), the Greater Cleveland MSA (2018 2,057,000 est.), the Greater Cleveland CSA (2018 est. 3,483,000 est.)? Will a Great Climate Change Migration be under way by 2030 with Greater Cleveland experiencing net inward migration?

(let me think some more on this one)

What will be the condition of downtown and University Circle?

Downtown will host 30K full time residents and will have strong retail, but the latter will be in scattered in pockets: nu-CLE-us will have a lot of it in it’s street level spaces, while the May Company apts will host a mini-Target store. The proposed Outlet store will be built at the eastern end of the current Muny (parking) Lot which will prove popular with locals and attract regional visitors from places like lower Michigan and eastern Pennsylvania.
Flats East Bank will be fully built out, including Phase III with the 11-story mixed-use apts/over retail building on the current surface parking (between Phases I and II). The East Bank’s Boardwalk will have been extended south along the Cuyahoga River all the way to below Tower City where Blockchain-inspired office building and mid-and-high rise apartments/condos will finally complete the Tower City complex along the (now empty) south side of Huron Road. Flats West Bank will also have new mid/high rise apartments/condos along the surface lots between the Powerhouse and the Sugar Warehouse (Shooter’s and the Music Box), and River Taxis will have multiple boats, multiple stops on both sides of the river, and have frequent service extending until 9p most nights (during warm weather) and Midnight on Fridays and Saturdays.
The North Coast will be built out to current plans, with current handsome Harbor Verandas and Nuevo restaurant joined with low-rise apts, condos, hotels, retail and a k-8 charter school. A new RTA free trolley route will circulate through this lively neighborhood.

Oh yeah, the pumped up Flats East and West Banks, the North Coast Transportation Center the built out North Coast and the Outlet mall will pump life into RTA’s Waterfront Line which will be extended slightly to near the western entrance of the new mall. As a result, Waterfront Line service will be expanded/restored: more frequent service (trains every 15 minutes) will run until midnight every night with all rail lines running until 2p on Fridays and Saturdays from Memorial to Labor days...

The new Sherwin-Williams headquarters will not only bridge downtown and the Warehouse District, it will attracted apartment high rises with ground-level retail to fill in the few remaining gaps in the WHD, creating seamless vibrancy connecting to downtown at Tower City to the east along Euclid, Prospect and Superior. Euclid Ave, from Public Square to the Inner Belt (or the eastern boundary of CSU) will be an avenue of excitement). The fledgling Euclid Ave apartment scene (with both new high rises and office building retrofits, will be flush with residents. Older office buildings like Union Trust, Cleveland Athletic Club and John Hartness Brown will be joined with new high rises like Lumen (phases I & II), City Club and others… The Health Line – with new stretch buses and replaced new free Trolley’s will troll thousands up and down this stretch which will be electric with foot traffic 24/7. (btw City/transit leaders will finally agree upon HL off-board proof-of-payment fares and cross street traffic lights will, now, be automatically tripped by HL buses for much increased speed.

… and, yes, the greatly increased population/retail/traffic will re-spark talks of some form of Dual Hub rapid transit between downtown, Cleveland Clinic and University Circle… and this time, it may actually materialize.
University Circle will truly become the City’s 2nd downtown, with more offices, expanded UH/CWRU/CIA/CIM facilities that will be joined by even more apartments and townhouses, and the rent will be through the roof (unfortunately). The current upgrading of old apartments and houses (plus new infill houses) in lower Glenville adjacent to the Circle will continue to the north and east and even extend into East Cleveland (which, by then, will be annexed and another Cleveland neighborhood), and this all will join the revived apartment/retail complex that will go into the currently dilapidated Hough Bakery building at Lakeview adjacent to the RR/Rapid Transit embankment – and RTA will have built a new Red Line station at Lakeview (where the Van Sweringens had originally planned one).

What level of relative prosperity will Greater Cleveland have in 2030 relative to the rest of the nation?

Bankruptcy and homelessness will be a major problem in Cleveland viz the nation. Poverty and education equality will still be a major concern.

What will be the major issues in 2030 in Greater Cleveland? What issues will be specific to Greater Cleveland versus the nation?

Gentrification will be a greater, polarizing issue in Cleveland with working/middle class Whites, Blacks and others uniting to fight meteoric rental rates and RE prices. ... however, I feel that racism and racial issues will be much more pronounced and even violent with white nationalist movements becoming normalized -- Cleveland will be more progressive than most metro areas, though, and will become something of a sanctuary for more open-minded Americans.

What will be the most surprising developments during the 2020s?

Revived transit patronage will have RTA building rail transit expansion.

Anything else?

(maybe more later, after my fingers are rested)

Last edited by TheProf; 02-16-2020 at 06:58 PM..
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Old 02-18-2020, 04:39 AM
 
Location: Cleveland, OH
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I'm wondering if the southeast suburbs will actually continue to decline. I've been spending a good amount of time in Garfield, Maple, Bedford. Garfield to me especially is very well located. A lot of people work there as well. A lot of the homes are kinda cookie cutter bungalow types, but there are actually some lovely streets too. Imo it is a no brainer spot for people who bemoan the high costs of other neighborhoods or suburbs. I understand these areas have declined but I kinda wonder what would really prevent them from being stable middle class suburbs again, like a Parma.
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Old 02-18-2020, 06:15 AM
 
227 posts, read 125,101 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bjimmy24 View Post
I'm wondering if the southeast suburbs will actually continue to decline. I've been spending a good amount of time in Garfield, Maple, Bedford. Garfield to me especially is very well located. A lot of people work there as well. A lot of the homes are kinda cookie cutter bungalow types, but there are actually some lovely streets too. Imo it is a no brainer spot for people who bemoan the high costs of other neighborhoods or suburbs. I understand these areas have declined but I kinda wonder what would really prevent them from being stable middle class suburbs again, like a Parma.
The decline is relative to the particular suburb. However, on the micro level of the individual and the macro level of the metro area I believe it leads to long-term stabilization and improvement. Moving out of Buckeye or Union-Miles into Garfield Heights or Maple Heights is a major improvement in neighborhood, housing, schools, etc. Same for folks in East Cleveland moving to South Euclid, Richmond Heights and Euclid.

That being said, the City of Cleveland and the suburbs of Cuyahoga County need to align on a comprehensive plan. Shuffling the cards does not alleviate the symptoms of a struggling metro. The recent news about new zoning policies is encouraging, but again, doesn't address the root causes of a struggling metro.

On the other issues, see 216facts post.
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Old 02-18-2020, 06:43 AM
 
Location: Cleveland, OH
378 posts, read 240,567 times
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What will the population be for Cleveland (now 385,000 est.), the Greater Cleveland MSA (2018 2,057,000 est.), the Greater Cleveland CSA (2018 est. 3,483,000 est.)? Will a Great Climate Change Migration be under way by 2030 with Greater Cleveland experiencing net inward migration?

I think the county's net population will fully plateau and Cleveland proper may continue to see population redistribution to the core.

What will be the condition of downtown and University Circle?

Denser and considerably more expensive. Additionally, neighborhood like Hough and Glenville will probably face significant displacement as micro-branded developments like "Circle North" spread outward from UC. I think Euclid and Midtown will also continue to fill in, with similar changes to Hough and Glenville being seen in St Clair-Superior.

What level of relative prosperity will Greater Cleveland have in 2030 relative to the rest of the nation?

The city will likely still be heavily segregated with disproportionate access to wealth. These disparities will continue to fuel the city's greatest challenges.

How will climate change have impacted the Greater Cleveland environment, if at all?

I do believe we will see a large increase in climate migration but it will largely be from the Caribbean and Central America. Wealthy US cities will probably continue to artificially buffer themselves from the worst effects. For context, Cleveland saw thousands of families arrive after Hurricane Maria and again after the earthquake in Puerto Rico. Accelerated climate events will see these migrations grow. To that end, I think Cleveland may see formation of some new cultural nodes in certain neighborhoods.

What will be the most surprising developments during the 2020s?

The water crisis/algal blooms in Lake Erie are going to be a growing threat that more imminently impacts our access to drinking water. Additionally, I think the city is going to face a further breakdown in infrastructure (the electrical grid, for example).

Anything else?


As has been noted above, I think we have the chance to reverse the RTA death spiral. If transit advocates are elevated and some larger stakeholders finally acknowledge the role of transit in the city, we could see a real sea change in opinion of RTA. That being said, it would be just as easy to maintain the same-old-same-old mentality and watch it die over the next decade.
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Old 02-18-2020, 07:31 AM
 
3,640 posts, read 3,628,047 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by j_ws View Post
What will the population be for Cleveland (now 385,000 est.), the Greater Cleveland MSA (2018 2,057,000 est.), the Greater Cleveland CSA (2018 est. 3,483,000 est.)? Will a Great Climate Change Migration be under way by 2030 with Greater Cleveland experiencing net inward migration?

I think the county's net population will fully plateau and Cleveland proper may continue to see population redistribution to the core.

What will be the condition of downtown and University Circle?

Denser and considerably more expensive. Additionally, neighborhood like Hough and Glenville will probably face significant displacement as micro-branded developments like "Circle North" spread outward from UC. I think Euclid and Midtown will also continue to fill in, with similar changes to Hough and Glenville being seen in St Clair-Superior.

What level of relative prosperity will Greater Cleveland have in 2030 relative to the rest of the nation?

The city will likely still be heavily segregated with disproportionate access to wealth. These disparities will continue to fuel the city's greatest challenges.

How will climate change have impacted the Greater Cleveland environment, if at all?

I do believe we will see a large increase in climate migration but it will largely be from the Caribbean and Central America. Wealthy US cities will probably continue to artificially buffer themselves from the worst effects. For context, Cleveland saw thousands of families arrive after Hurricane Maria and again after the earthquake in Puerto Rico. Accelerated climate events will see these migrations grow. To that end, I think Cleveland may see formation of some new cultural nodes in certain neighborhoods.

What will be the most surprising developments during the 2020s?

The water crisis/algal blooms in Lake Erie are going to be a growing threat that more imminently impacts our access to drinking water. Additionally, I think the city is going to face a further breakdown in infrastructure (the electrical grid, for example).

Anything else?


As has been noted above, I think we have the chance to reverse the RTA death spiral. If transit advocates are elevated and some larger stakeholders finally acknowledge the role of transit in the city, we could see a real sea change in opinion of RTA. That being said, it would be just as easy to maintain the same-old-same-old mentality and watch it die over the next decade.
Good points, esp your last one... It really bugs and mystifies me how so many Cleveland people and organizations, like the Greater Cleveland Partnership, have the twisted view that Cleveland can thrive as this dense, walkable community while watching transit die. It's stupid and shortsighted and, once again, leads me to believe that too many folks in power really have no clue as to what makes a healthy urban city in the modern era.

If you read promotional literature of some of these downtown-oriented organizations, like K&D realtors, they hold up the Health Line as the City's shiny toy worth celebrating... But this effort is thinly veiled. Nationally many BRT proponents are really rail-haters in disguise, and BRT's rubber-tired gas-guzzling reality fits neatly into their paradigm. This seems to be the case in Cleveland, where GCP, K&D and other BRT proponents, act as if our rail system -- the true 'star' of RTA -- doesn't even exist. It barely gets mentioned in all their City/downtown literature, if at all... Not surprising for K&D, the region's largest property holder, as again and again, their urban properties continue to promote a suburban-lifestyle sensitivity.

Last edited by TheProf; 02-18-2020 at 07:45 AM..
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Old 02-18-2020, 09:08 AM
 
9,786 posts, read 6,594,781 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheProf View Post
This seems to be the case in Cleveland, where GCP, K&D and other BRT proponents, act as if our rail system -- the true 'star' of RTA -- doesn't even exist. It barely gets mentioned in all their City/downtown literature, if at all... Not surprising for K&D, the region's largest property holder, as again and again, their urban properties continue to promote a suburban-lifestyle sensitivity.
What are GCP and K&D? It's a helpful idea to spell out a name on first reference with any acronym followed immediately in parentheses; this is a general journalism guideline.
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Old 02-18-2020, 01:18 PM
 
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K&D is an resl estate development company. (I knew what it stood for some time ago; I believe it's the initials of the first names of the male and female owners... GCP is Greater Cleveland Partnership.
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Old 02-18-2020, 02:40 PM
 
9,786 posts, read 6,594,781 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheProf View Post
K&D is an resl estate development company. (I knew what it stood for some time ago; I believe it's the initials of the first names of the male and female owners... GCP is Greater Cleveland Partnership.

Thanks!


K&D appears to be named after the first letter of the first name of each of the founders, Douglas Price and Karen Paganini, who are former spouses but still partners.



https://www.kandd.com/aboutus.aspx


My first 2030 prediction -- Price and Paganini, as Cleveland's preeminent real estate bottom fishers, will thrive during the 2020s. It's amazing they were able to purchase the Terminal Tower for only $38.5 million, likely with very cheap financing; what is the replacement cost of that building, even absent any premium for its iconic presence? K&D paid only $67/square foot for the TT's reported 577,000 square feet; existing office rents there must be very low.



Reading this article, I don't think Price and Paganini are anti-rail rapid, but there certainly could be information to which I'm not privy.



https://clevelandmagazine.com/in-the...tower-struggle


Why is the K&D headquarters in Willoughby? Checking out Google images of 4420 Sherwin Road, a short distance from the Kirtland Country Club, perhaps the most exclusive in Greater Cleveland, I get the appeal, especially if they are golfers. K&D seems to have a small campus there.



Barring another Great Recession, or worse, an informed worry of mine that is greatly clouding my crystal ball, downtown Cleveland real estate should continue to appreciate in the current decade, certainly powered by the proposed Sherwin-Williams complex.
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