Quote:
Originally Posted by ZnGuy
climate change migration ? What a joke  |
Climate change deniers are blowing against an increasingly powerful wind. A massive climate change migration now is inevitable and the only questions are about when it will begin and how rapidly it will impact Ohio and other target destinations. Just this month, for scientific reasons detailed below, I decided that the migration will begin this decade and that Ohio, especially northeast Ohio and Geauga County will be significantly impacted by 2040. Geauga County residents would be wise to complete their Geauga Park District acquisitions while it's still a possibility.
I will project that Geauga County's population will more than triple to over 300,000 by 2040, even though I likely won't be around to see it. See historical population here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geauga_County,_Ohio
For those who think such a population increase is impossible, check out the historic population of Mentor and the population increase from 1960 to 1970. The land area of Geauga County is almost 15 times that of Mentor.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mentor,_Ohio
Sadly, the existential threat to humanity now is evident, and perhaps irreversible even IF mankind were to act rapidly to reduce, then eliminate, fossil fuel consumption. As explained below, Americans living in coastal areas of the U.S. little understand YET the inexorable threat facing their communities. Ohioans and other Americans living in non-coastal states little understand YET how massively they are subsidizing coastal states even now, let alone how greatly the wealth transfer may increase in the future if "donor" states don't stop electing politicians who support the diversion of massive federal resources unfairly to coastal states.
I've studied the climate change issue for over a decade, but only this past week did I learn that much of the Antarctic ice sheet is below sea level, with extremely dire implications. See the map titled "What Lies Beneath the Ice of Antarctica?" here:
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51097309
Every American likely knows that ice melts once temperatures rise above the freezing point. Here are the facts that they generally don't know: 1) The oceans absorb over 90 percent of the excess heat resulting from fossil fuel consumption and are warming rapidly and massively; 2) That only in the past decade have temperatures in the Arctic and Antarctic increasingly exceeded the melting point of ice.
Buried near the end of the above linked BBC article is the factoid that should disturb all of humanity once armed with the understanding that much of the Antarctic ice shelf is below sea level. Understand that 0 degrees Celsius is the freezing point of water, and that 1-2 degrees Celsius is 33.8 to 35.6 degrees Fahrenheit.
<<"The deep Antarctic circumpolar water is only a handful of degrees warmer than the water above it - a degree or two above 0C - but that's warm enough to light this glacier up," says David Holland, an oceanographer with New York University and one of the lead scientists at the grounding zone camp.>>
As warm ocean water erodes the base of glaciers, the glaciers will calve and enter the ocean as icebergs. Currently the weight of these glaciers is supported by land, even though submerged. Once in the oceans, they will displace water and raise sea levels.
And we've also again learned recently that the oceans continue to warm rapidly absorbing amounts of energy that almost are beyond human comprehension, despite the best efforts of scientists to explain the reality.
<<The total heat content of the world’s oceans (OHC) in 2019 was the warmest in recorded human history, according to a January 13 paper by Cheng et al., Record-Setting Ocean Warmth Continued in 2019, published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. In the uppermost 2000 meters of the oceans, there were 228 Zetta Joules more heat in 2019 than the 1981−2010 average; 2019 had 25 Zetta Joules more OHC than 2018 (a Zetta Joule is one sextillion Joules-- ten to the 21st power). “We found that 2019 was not only the warmest year on record, it displayed the largest single-year increase of the entire decade, a sobering reminder that human-caused heating of our planet continues unabated,” said Penn State’s Dr. Michael Mann, one of the co-authors.
The gain in ocean heat between 2018 and 2019 was about 44 times as great as all the energy used by humans in one year.
More than 90% of the increasing heat from human-caused global warming accumulates in the ocean because of its large heat capacity.>>
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com...story-in-2019/
Most modern men, given our great technological advances, don't appreciate the overwhelming power of nature.
<<Earth is heating at a rate equivalent to five atomic bombs per second. Or two Hurricane Sandys.>>
https://thebulletin.org/2020/02/eart...ricane-sandys/
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates that sea level rise by 2030 may be as much as 12 inches or more. As the current level of sea level rise is only about 1/3 inch, this implies an annual rate of increase of 1 inch or more by the end of the decade. See chart here:
https://www.wlrn.org/post/new-sea-le...aster#stream/0
Sea level rise will be greater in Florida due to reduced gravity at the poles as ice continues to melt and due to greater thermal expansion than in other regions of the earth.
<<This means that South Florida should add 35 percent to 72 percent additional rise to the GMSL projections. The total relative sea-level rise for South Florida by 2046 could thus be 2.7 to 3.4 feet, and within 50 years could be 5.7 to 7.2 feet. This is not an encouraging future when you look at elevation maps of South Florida or most any other coast.>>
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/opinion...620-story.html
The natural forces that will trigger the climate change migration include not only rising sea levels, but also rising temperature and humidity and certainly more substantial storm damage as all Atlantic hurricanes passing over ever warmer oceans are rapidly intensifying and carrying more humidity which translates into not only more powerful hurricanes, but more rainfall and flooding.
Scarily, natural feedback loops may now be overtaking fossil fuel consumption as a causative factor for climate change. Recent research from NASA details the large amounts of methane being released in the Arctic from permafrost melt. Over the short run, methane is 80 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide.
<<"We consider hotspots to be areas showing an excess of 3,000 parts per million of methane between the airborne sensor and the ground," said lead author Clayton Elder of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. "And we detected 2 million of these hotspots over the land that we covered.">>
https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2954/n...hane-hotspots/
https://news.yahoo.com/its-already-b...090000011.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2...arctic-on-fire
Ohioans already are subsidizing ocean coastal communities and states. Not only does Congress, and unfortunately Ohio's Senators and Representatives, support massive subsidies for the FEMA flood insurance program, often benefiting the very wealthy, but the federal government pays to rebuild NEW infrastructure after hurricanes and other storm events.
While communities in Ohio, such as Lorain, foot the bill for our entire infrastructure needs with no federal subsidies, ocean coastal communities receive almost complete reboots, on the federal dime after a destructive storm.
https://www.morningjournal.com/news/...be200ea53.html
Consider Fort Lauderdale, which has neglected its fresh and waste water infrastructure for years. Now it faces billions of catch-up spending, on top of likely a billion dollars needed to "adapt" to sea level rise for a few decades before the seas overwhelm Florida.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/loc...239005633.html
<<“Considering the extent of this pollution, we should be more than eligible for state and
federal assistance,” he said. “We cannot suffer this burden alone.” [Unlike Lorain and other communities in Greater Cleveland that have spent billions without federal aid in the last few decades.]>>
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/local/b...zga-story.html
https://e360.yale.edu/features/who-w...ck-rising-seas
There will be miniscule, if any, state aid because Florida has no income tax and in 2018 passed a Constitutional amendment drastically limiting the state's ability to raise taxes or fees.
https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_Amen...mendment_(2018)
The Florida mentality is to let the federal government (other states) pay for funding needs.
Florida Congresspersons supported the state and local tax (SALT) deduction limit in the Trump/Republican tax bill claiming that other high tax states, such as Ohio, need to become more efficient....
The reality is that if Fort Lauderdale is hit by a major hurricane, our current Congress will pay to rebuild Ft. Lauderdale's decrepit infrastructure for FREE. Ft. Lauderdale won't be required to finance any of the bill, assuming that the capital markets even would loan Ft. Lauderdale money, especially long-term.
Floridians believe that it is their God-given right to pay very low taxes due to the federal largesse granted at the expense of other states, including Ohio.
This will change in the very near future for two reasons: 1) the federal government has over $20 trillion of debt, is running a $1 trillion budget deficit during a full employment economy, and has another $100 trillion of unfunded liabilities; 2) citizens in other states, including Ohio, will eventually refuse to elect politicians who vote to divert billions from their economies to DOOMED coastal communities.
The trigger for the start of the climate change migration likely will be the unwillingness of the insurance and investment communities to assume climate-change related risks, resulting in much higher cost of government and plunging real estate prices in coastal communities. This trend already is evident.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/chunkam.../#3fdd31394f50
https://www.insurancejournal.com/new.../03/544296.htm
https://www.theinvadingsea.com/2019/...mpacts-worsen/
Currently, Congress heavily subsidizes FEMA flood insurance. What happens to flood insurance rates when this no longer is the case, especially for wealthy communities if the insurance subsidies are means-tested in the near future?
<<NFIP has had to borrow from the Department of the Treasury to pay claims from major natural disasters. As of September 2018, FEMA’s debt stood at $20.5 billion despite Congress having canceled $16 billion in debt in October 2017. Without reforms, the financial condition of NFIP could continue to worsen.>>
https://www.gao.gov/highrisk/overview
The infrastructure needs of Ft. Lauderdale are not unique to that Florida community.
https://www.jacksonville.com/news/20...e-of-florida/1
If federal subsidies of coastal communities ended tomorrow, and coastal cities and states like Florida were forced to raise taxes and fees accordingly, the climate change migration likely would begin within a couple years.
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