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<<Particularly problematic are Palm Beach and Lee counties, where 77,205 and 58,601 properties are at risk of flooding but do not fall within the federal flood maps, the highest discrepancies in the state....
“They’re going to watch the value of their property plummet over time,” he said. “That might make them think twice,” he said, adding that it might also convince them to ask their elected representatives “to do something about it.”>>
Sanibel is part of Lee County, FL. The above findings are based on CURRENT sea levels, and now that sea level rise is rapidly accelerating, flooding risks will affect ever more coastal properties. The inevitable declines in property values will impact local economies and certainly governmental finances. Currently, coastal properties are often the most valuable properties in coastal counties.
Also, note the substantial discrepancies in flood risk properties in the Carolinas.
Economic conditions in coastal counties especially will worsen when beach vacations become a thing of the past.
As ocean beaches become inundated, Great Lakes beaches may become the only surf beaches in the U.S., unless there is significant and rapid migration of ocean beaches, an extremely difficult process in developed areas.
Currently, the federal government subsidizes the FEMA flood insurance program to the tune of billions annually. Billions are spent by the federal government on beach "replenishing" and other anti-erosion infrastructure in the ocean coasts. As the federal budget increasingly is obliterated and other pressing needs are left unmet, these wasteful programs likely have an limited life.
Combined with warmer, more humid temperatures and increased risks of more powerful and damaging hurricanes, a Great Climate Change migration seems inevitable, ironically accelerated by the climate change deniers that often dominate the political scene in Florida, the Carolinas, and other coastal states.
Having family owned property on the island we will agree to disagree. The NBC-2 article is puffery to fuel a narrative. For example, absolutely nothing in there about the Army Core of Engineers massive releases of fresh water from Lake O into the Caloosahatchee River which dumps right into San Carlos Bay at Sanibel temporarily raising water levels and current flow that causes erosion, brakish water and red tide. The ends of the island subjected to the tidal flows are always changing and need periodic renourishment to keep them the same. They never stay the same otherwise. Nothing to do with humans. Having last set foot on Sanibel a week ago I can tell you nothing is in danger and everything looks the same as it always does.
Sanibel isn't going anywhere. Not in 2030 and not in our lifetime, nor my children's or grandchildren's lifetime!
Here on the Isle of Palms in SC they sometimes have to renourish after a bad storm from wave action erosion. Otherwise, the barrier islands are sound.
People can fear monger, or they can enjoy what we have and realize that we really have little idea nor control over the big picture. This is not the same as advocating being reckless with our environment and that there are no consequences for doing so. But we give far too much credit to humans for causation of impacts and far too less to the natural cycles of the earth and forces upon it that we don't fully grasp. My own eyes, 40 years of visiting the same area and beaches and highly educated judgement tell me there is a lot of hype and little to no actual threat.
Attacking someone as a "denier" is not a valid defense. I can find plenty of science to argue against your points. Depends where the funding for your sources or mine come from. The truth as always, is somewhere in the middle and far less dire than predicted.
Last edited by cubsguy81; 07-09-2020 at 02:57 PM..
All of this in enlightening. But the OP wanted to know whether it was the right time to buy in the Cleveland suburbs. smh
Point well taken. Despite my negativity on Cleveland, and the exodus to the Carolinas/SE that will continue or accelerate in the years ahead driven by weather, taxes, increasing location independence from WFH I think there will be concentrated wealth in select suburbs and increased poverty with even total abandonment in urban core areas. Same as you see in other Midwest areas: Chicago, Detroit, Pittsburgh, etc. On a long enough timeline the land will become so worthless and downside risk so low in "worst" urban areas that they will be redeveloped again. Seeing this in Chicago, parts of Detroit and even some areas of Cleveland.
Record low interest rates and low inventory are putting upward pressure on prices. Doubtful that prices will decline in the good suburbs even in a sustained downturn as wealth concentrates in fewer areas insulating the winning areas from the worst of any impact.
Would I buy up to a $500K house in CLE suburbs today? Yep. All day long. $1M+? I'd have reservations unless no desire to ever sell since Cleveland as a Gamma city doesn't have high enough incomes or money flow to support a large buyer pool the same way it does in global Alpha cities such as Chicago. The one thing that Cleveland does have is a lot of easy return for investors to buy and rent out properties. As captial seeks alpha there are fewer places left to do it with attractive ROI, Cleveland still remains as one but market forces will correct this with time. I suspect this will drive gentrification the most.
The two best times to buy real estate are today and 5 years ago.
Last edited by cubsguy81; 07-09-2020 at 03:15 PM..
Sanibel isn't going anywhere. Not in 2030 and not in our lifetime, nor my children's or grandchildren's lifetime!
Perhaps you are ignorant as a part-time visitor to Sanibel. Perhaps you are disingenuous. I don't care. Sadly, empirical evidence and the experts say you are wrong. If sea level rise is over a foot by 2030, as the NOAA says is possible, do you honestly believe that the impact on Sanibel will be minimal??? The elevation of the island reportedly is only 3 feet, making it already vulnerable to a storm surge of today's more powerful hurricanes.
You essentially argue that news reports of erosion due to sea level rise are fake. How about the worries expressed by a native of the island?
<<In the car, on a walk, in the early, unfiltered hours of the morning I'm hit by unstoppable waves of grief. In 20 to 40 years, my childhood home of Sanibel Island will not exist as it does now.
Visiting the coast is bittersweet for me as I watch the coastline slip back into the sea. At times I am completely overcome by the enormity of the climate crisis.
As a Gulf Coast barrier island with an unusual east-west orientation, Sanibel Island is particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise and hurricanes. Forty-eight percent of the island is already water, and the rest of the island never rises much more than three feet above sea level.
As I watched Irma hit South Florida, I realized how limited my time was to find closure with my place on earth. Would it be this storm, or the next one, or simply the steadily rising seas that would lead to the final, irreparable damage?>>
The above column uses a term new to me -- "eco-grief" -- it's a sentiment that I feel, but it's compounded by anger at the deceit and "Big Lie" propaganda foisted on the American people by climate change deniers.
Here on the Isle of Palms in SC they sometimes have to renourish after a bad storm from wave action erosion. Otherwise, the barrier islands are sound.
Right. And you, an opponent of government waste, believe that the federal government should be dumping money into the ocean even as our elementary and secondary schools and public universities are being diminished by a lack of funds?
People can fear monger, or they can enjoy what we have and realize that we really have little idea nor control over the big picture. This is not the same as advocating being reckless with our environment and that there are no consequences for doing so. But we give far too much credit to humans for causation of impacts and far too less to the natural cycles of the earth and forces upon it that we don't fully grasp. My own eyes, 40 years of visiting the same area and beaches and highly educated judgement tell me there is a lot of hype and little to no actual threat.
Attacking someone as a "denier" is not a valid defense. I can find plenty of science to argue against your points. Depends where the funding for your sources or mine come from. The truth as always, is somewhere in the middle and far less dire than predicted.
What makes you a denier is ignoring all of the links in post 15. NASA, National Geographic, CBS News, etc., are wrong and you are right in your opinion. They are "fear mongers" in your determined obtuseness. I literally could post hundreds of links to empirical evidence documenting the catastrophe at hand, and you and like thinkers would say that you can post contradictory evidence of a similar quality without ever doing so.
Do you honestly believe that the accelerating ice melt underway in Greenland, let alone Antarctica, won't impact the Carolinas or Sanibel Island? If so, many other adjectives less polite than denier come to my mind.
Sadly, if the solar cycle is shifting to a period of increased activity, within the next year we may see the rapid sea level rise acceleration anticipated by NOAA well underway.
Right. And you, an opponent of government waste, believe that the federal government should be dumping money into the ocean even as our elementary and secondary schools and public universities are being diminished by a lack of funds?
WR, we get it. You are concerned, as we all should be, about climate change. But give it a rest. It's way off topic here... climate change has very little impact in the short term, of which the OP is posting.
OP, it's a fair question, particularly in the short term. Personally, I am waiting it out, as I think the market is bound to tank in the next 1-5 years...so I'm renting a very nice house and waiting it out. No sense overpaying for a house, IMHO.
WR, we get it. You are concerned, as we all should be, about climate change. But give it a rest. It's way off topic here... climate change has very little impact in the short term, of which the OP is posting.
OP, it's a fair question, particularly in the short term. Personally, I am waiting it out, as I think the market is bound to tank in the next 1-5 years...so I'm renting a very nice house and waiting it out. No sense overpaying for a house, IMHO.
Again, climate change not off-topic for those contemplating purchasing Greater Cleveland real estate now. My understanding based on my contacts in the real estate industry is that climate change already is influencing sophisticated real estate investors and contributing significantly to interest in Cleveland development investments. I know a few large real estate developers who want nothing to do with Florida and even many other U.S. coastal areas.
See the links in post 15. How do you think a foot of sea level rise, even more in Florida, by 2030 will impact the desirability of coastal real estate? More immediate is the possibility of a major hurricane catastrophe torpedoing coastal real estate markets, again especially in Florida. None of our major national leaders are detailing what is immediately ahead on the climate change front. See post 11 in this thread.
<<The total heat content of the world’s oceans (OHC) in 2019 was the warmest in recorded human history, according to a January 13 paper by Cheng et al., Record-Setting Ocean Warmth Continued in 2019, published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. In the uppermost 2000 meters of the oceans, there were 228 Zetta Joules more heat in 2019 than the 1981−2010 average; 2019 had 25 Zetta Joules more OHC than 2018 (a Zetta Joule is one sextillion Joules-- ten to the 21st power). “We found that 2019 was not only the warmest year on record, it displayed the largest single-year increase of the entire decade, a sobering reminder that human-caused heating of our planet continues unabated,” said Penn State’s Dr. Michael Mann, one of the co-authors. The gain in ocean heat between 2018 and 2019 was about 44 times as great as all the energy used by humans in one year.>>
<<For 18 years, Dr. Glendon was a Macroanalyst, Partner, and Director of Investment Research at Wellington Management, an investment management firm with more than $1 trillion in client assets. In that role, he spent several years focusing on models in climate science and finance, and understanding the gaps between the two disciplines and their practitioners.>>
Woods Hole Research Center is now Woodwell Climate Research Center. Between them, Wellington Management and CalPers likely have over $1.5 trillion under managemet.
I don't agree with the OP and apparently you on climate change real estate impacts, but I do wonder what happens to Great Lakes real estate markets if a major hurricane strike in Florida in even the next few years creates the catastrophic financial cascade anticipated by Glendon. This impact could be compounded by a Democratic Congress and President's repeal of the SALT federal income tax provision that has driven recent migration by the wealthy to Florida. My hunch is that you could see the music stop in the greatest game of real estate musical chairs ever played in the U.S.
Entering the work force in the 1970s during the Great Stagflation, I well remember how persons harbored their 30-year, low single digit mortgages, buying double digit bonds, including non-callable Treasuries rather than pay down mortgage debt.
WR, we get it. You are concerned, as we all should be, about climate change. But give it a rest. It's way off topic here... climate change has very little impact in the short term, of which the OP is posting.
Climate change also is relevant to Cleveland, and the rest of the U.S., apart from the inevitable coming boost to demand for Cleveland housing as persons flee impacted regions. These changes will impact the quality of life in northeast Ohio, but will be measured against much more negative consequences in other regions of the U.S. Natives of northeast Ohio and prospective residents should be cognizant of these changes, as the quality of the natural environment is a concern when living anywhere.
Brutally cold (sub-10 degree F. and even sub-zero degree F. winter weather) Cleveland winters are fading into past history, likely remembered by only Cleveland natives over 40 years of age, if not 50 or 60. We haven't had a major blizzard in many years, if not a decade. Snow totals are trending down, and likely will reach relatively negligible amounts or zero some time in this next few decades.
Snowfalls this past winter seem representative of many winters of the past decade. Not only are snow totals low, but the snow often melts upon contact or within a few days. Accumulations of even a few inches were uncommon this past winter, even in the snow belt. Long gone are the days when there was little room on lawns to put more snow.
All of this seems attributable to the Arctic Amplification resulting from climate change, as discussed in detail in this thread. The thread notes that Cleveland rests at approximately the same latitude as Barcelona, Spain.
For persons who hate winters, Cleveland's weather rapidly seems to transitioning to their tastes. For those of us who enjoy winter activities, the diminished Cleveland winters are sad.
Warmer winters increase pests. Cleveland's old growth forests increasingly are being ravaged, and this development is poorly covered by the local media. Ditto, the spread of invasive species.
For those who enjoy the natural wonders of northeast Ohio, the future is bleak. Even the maple tree and the maple syrup industry will be greatly diminished in this region in coming decades. See post 7 in this thread.
Compared to the ravages that will be visited on many other regions of the U.S. by climate change, the impacts on northeast Ohio may be seem relatively insignificant. They still will be painful for those remember any aspects of the pre-climate change northeast Ohio climate and nature.
So there likely will be a significant increase in demand for housing in the Great Lakes region, but quality of life likely will suffer as a result. And unlike many other areas of the U.S., we likely will have plentiful supplies of fresh water, at least for those with access to Great Lakes' water supplies, for the foreseeable future. This is not an insignificant issue.
BTW, with the prospect of a "La Nina" winter at hand, we may experience a colder 2019-20 winter with more precipitation than last year. Generally, though, "La Nina" winter impacts are more pronounced in the Northwest and upper Midwest than in northern Ohio.
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Correction to post 25
