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Old 05-05-2011, 10:22 AM
 
Location: Morehead City, NC
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Some interesting real estate market info for the Crystal Coast area I thought I'd pass along. This is for homes and not condos.
Comparing 2011 YTD info with 2010 and 2009 shows little change in the market. The absorption rate (supply of inventory*) has remained around 34-36 months. Average sold prices remain around $229K-$239K.
Another tid bit of info-While the US reached a record high of 2.2 million REO properties for sale in March, the Crystal Coast currently has about 4.7% of all of its active listings as either a bank owned or short sale.

*6 to 7 month supply of inventory is considered to be a normal, stable market.
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Old 05-05-2011, 11:45 AM
LLN
 
Location: Upstairs closet
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Bill, doesn"t inventory 5 times greater than normal spell .... DISMAL. If the economy is getting better as we are told frequently, I do not see it manifesting itself in Crystal Coast Real Estate. Wow!

What is the big idea that balances massive inventory and consistent pricing? Is this indicative of near 100% discretionary (vacation) market? It seems to defy basic econ, unless due to the discretionary nature, it is outside the Rational laws.

Very interesting.

lln
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Old 05-05-2011, 11:54 AM
 
22,769 posts, read 28,560,277 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LLN View Post
Bill, doesn"t inventory 5 times greater than normal spell .... DISMAL. If the economy is getting better as we are told frequently, I do not see it manifesting itself in Crystal Coast Real Estate. Wow!

What is the big idea that balances massive inventory and consistent pricing? Is this indicative of near 100% discretionary (vacation) market? It seems to defy basic econ, unless due to the discretionary nature, it is outside the Rational laws.

Very interesting.

lln
i don't know about that area, but around here its hard to say whether much of the inventory actually qualifies as being 'for sale'.

seems more accurate to describe some listings as being a declaration of what the owner thinks it is worth, via the MLS. Or maybe people just like putting photos of their houses on the internet.
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Old 05-05-2011, 01:48 PM
 
Location: NC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LLN View Post
What is the big idea that balances massive inventory and consistent pricing?

lln
I'm still seeing property values drop.

The numbers Bill posted are consistent with what I'm seeing in New Hanover, Pender and Brunswick County. In a stable market the number of active listings are usually very similar to the number of closed sales over the previous 12 month time period. Not so right now though as the number of listings is anywhere from 2.5 to 4 times the closed sales of the last 12 months. Triple those numbers for vacant land. I was optimistic that this spring would mark the turning of the corner for the local real estate market because prices for the most part are reasonable having been driven down by foreclosures but so far things don't look so good. I think the economy is partially to blame and the other is restrictive lending.
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Old 05-05-2011, 01:52 PM
 
Location: NC
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Originally Posted by le roi View Post
seems more accurate to describe some listings as being a declaration of what the owner thinks it is worth, via the MLS.
You just described about 25% of the homes currently listed for sale in eastern NC. For whatever reason there are still people that think it's 2006 instead of 2011.
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Old 05-05-2011, 02:18 PM
 
Location: Morehead City, NC
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You just described about 25% of the homes currently listed for sale in eastern NC. For whatever reason there are still people that think it's 2006 instead of 2011.
In my opinion that has been the single greatest problem.
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Old 05-06-2011, 06:30 AM
 
Location: Morehead City, NC
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If you really want to be shocked take a look at the condo market along the Crystal Coast. The supply of inventory has fallen to 54 months after reaching an all time high in 2009 of 79 months. In 2005 the condo market had a 7 month supply.

Here's a simplified explanation. In the 2004-2006 sales of properties spiked up. Real estate is generally slow to react. As a consequence as sales started its decline in 2007 active listings started its spike up. Existing properties can be taken off the market but new contruction has no where to go. So while sales fall back to somewhat of a normal level, inventory still remains at historic highs. This creates the glut of inventory we have and have had for several years.

This market can not handle the amount of inventory it currently has for sale. The last time we had a "normal" market back in the 2004-2005 sales were 2x to 3x's greater and inventory was 2x to 3x's less than what it is now.
Now I know all of this sounds like gloom and doom. It isn't. All adverse situations create opportunity.

Sellers-If you're serious about selling then I highly encourage you to hire a home inspector and then fix whatever needs to be fixed. I would then highly recommend hiring an appraiser and adhere to his finding. In so doing (do what the appraiser and home inspector say) you have defeated just about any objection a buyer can come up with. Deals start happening quickly.

Buyers-take care of your financials before you start looking. Be ready, willing and able to act quickly when the opportunity presents itself. Any "deal" will not stay on the market long.
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Old 05-06-2011, 07:49 AM
 
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Originally Posted by Bill Hitchcock View Post
The last time we had a "normal" market back in the 2004-2005 sales were 2x to 3x's greater and inventory was 2x to 3x's less than what it is now.
do you really think 2004-2005 was a "normal" market?

or do you just mean that it was different than the current market?
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Old 05-06-2011, 09:09 AM
 
Location: Morehead City, NC
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The quotation marks around the word normal are intended to highlight just how un-normal it all is.
You have to go back to 2004-2005 time period (and prior) to find when the real estate market maintained approx. a 6-8 month supply of inventory. There is a reason why listing agreements use to be for 6 months. Because in a "normal" market all of the available inventory would be sold within that time frame.

In 2005 1 out of 2 homes got sold. That 1 sold home was replaced with 1 new on market.
In 2011 1 out of every 8 homes gets sold. When that 1 home gets sold it gets replaced with 3 new on market.
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Old 05-06-2011, 09:13 AM
 
22,769 posts, read 28,560,277 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Hitchcock View Post
The quotation marks around the word normal are intended to highlight just how un-normal it all is.
You have to go back to 2004-2005 time period (and prior) to find when the real estate market maintained approx. a 6-8 month supply of inventory. There is a reason why listing agreements use to be for 6 months. Because in a "normal" market all of the available inventory would be sold within that time frame.

In 2005 1 out of 2 homes got sold. That 1 sold home was replaced with 1 new on market.
In 2011 1 out of every 8 homes gets sold. When that 1 home gets sold it gets replaced with 3 new on market.
Okay, I understand.

I suppose my question is whether or not that 2005 level of "1 out of 2 homes getting sold" is truly normal when compared against a 50+ year trend, 2000, 1990, 1980, 1970, 1960, etc.
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