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That "Could have 3-4 losses" could very well apply to Clemson last year.
I have to keep reminding myself of this, because when I compare the 2015, 2016 and 2017 Clemson teams.. That '15 team was the best team, even though they didn't win the championship. I don't think the '16 or '17 teams came close to them.
There's a good argument that the 2015 team was better than the 2016 team that won the Natty. Watson passed for 4,000+ and ran for 1,000+ yards, which is bananas. You could also say the defense was slightly better. The 2016 team had Mike Williams though. Even though they under-performed expectations during the regular season, I didn't see that as a talent issue as much as I did a mental issue. They came into last season with a target on their back. There aren't any "easy" games in that scenario. Ask the Golden State Warriors.
As opposed to not playing for championship this week and your best win is against LSU which lost to Troy?
This is a bit of a fiction, right? Alabama opened up against a game FSU, which later ended up sucking because their QB got injured. I'm as far from a Bama defender as you can find in this forum (fair to call me a Bama hater) but I give them props for that win. It doesn't matter to me what a rankings says about FSU's team right now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by eastcoastbias
Cherry pick all you want...but OSU could have THREE wins that are deemed better than Alabamas best win.
And they also have two losses way worse than Alabama's worst loss. If the shoe were on the other foot, and Alabama had two blowout losses with OSU's wins, would you be making the same argument?
Do you think Alabama would ever lose to an unranked team by 31 points?
And let's be real here, there's also the eyeball test. Which team is less likely to go to the CFP and embarrass themselves? It's important to bring up the Clemson lost last year because it highlights the disconnect that often exists between OSU fans' perception of their team and the reality.
This is a bit of a fiction, right? Alabama opened up against a game FSU, which later ended up sucking because their QB got injured. I'm as far from a Bama defender as you can find in this forum (fair to call me a Bama hater) but I give them props for that win. It doesn't matter to me what a rankings says about FSU's team right now.
And they also have two losses way worse than Alabama's worst loss. If the shoe were on the other foot, and Alabama had two blowout losses with OSU's wins, would you be making the same argument?
Losing to Oklahoma (In Sept.) by two scores is "way worse" than losing to Auburn by two scores (last week)??? Okay.
To answer your question, yes, I would be completing the analysis. If the criteria is worse loss- OSU is out. If it s reputation- OSU is out in comparison to Bama. Can we objectively use the other criteria???
FSU was taking on water this year regardless of the QB position- coaching rumors now, overrated defense, skill guys not showing up. I've watched a handful of FSU games (BC, Louisville to name a few) I didn't see the QB position affecting those games.
Losing to Oklahoma (In Sept.) by two scores is "way worse" than losing to Auburn by two scores (last week)??? Okay.
Yes, it is, and everyone knows this because Ohio State got pwned at home. It is a different situation when you are playing on the road in a rivalry game against a quality opponent. Most fans, if being honest with themselves, would probably agree that Auburn would wreck about everyone right now, and especially if they're playing at home.
I know some people say the Committee shouldn't factor in home field advantage, and that losses and wins should count the same no matter the venue, but we all know this isn't true, so why go along with that fiction? A loss at home and a loss on the road are not equal.
Quote:
Originally Posted by eastcoastbias
To answer your question, yes, I would be completing the analysis. If the criteria is worse loss- OSU is out. If it s reputation- OSU is out in comparison to Bama. Can we objectively use the other criteria???
There's obviously a lot of subjectivity here, which is why Penn State, presumably the best team in the Big Ten by virtue of their Big Ten championship, didn't make the Playoff. Subjectively speaking, should a team that's been dismantled by an unranked team be competing for a national championship? There's something that seems off about that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by eastcoastbias
FSU was taking on water this year regardless of the QB position- coaching rumors now, overrated defense, skill guys not showing up. I've watched a handful of FSU games (BC, Louisville to name a few) I didn't see the QB position affecting those games.
Losing your QB obviously affects morale, unless you believe that BC was a much tougher matchup for FSU than Alabama was. FSU still had the talent to compete against the best teams, which is why they played Clemson pretty tough, but everyone knew their season was a goner once Francois went down. You can see that in the thread about Francois going down for the season.
All right, y'all. Conference championship week picks are here. Here are the games.
(14) Stanford vs. (8) USC
North Texas vs. Florida Atlantic
Akron vs. Toledo
(12) Memphis vs. (9) UCF
(15) TCU vs. (1) Oklahoma
(4) Georgia vs. (5) Auburn
(20) Troy vs. Arkansas State
(7) Miami vs. (3) Clemson
(10) Ohio State vs. (2) Wisconsin
Pick Overall Record: 216-109
Pick Record Last Week: 16-8
Here are my picks. Stanford vs. USC (I doubt USC beats Stanford twice in one season, but then again, i could be wrong...)
North Texas vs. Florida Atlantic (Impressed with what Kiffin's done at FAU in one season.)
Akron vs. Toledo (Toledo easily...MAC East is terrible this year outside of Ohio, and they beat Toledo, but lost to Akron.)
Memphis vs. UCF (This should be a fun game to watch.)
TCU vs. Oklahoma (I'd love to see TCU win, but i highly doubt it happens.) Georgia vs. Auburn (I think Georgia wins the rematch, even with Kerryon in the game.) Troy vs. Arkansas State (Troy should finally beat Arkansas State this year...)
Miami vs. Clemson (I expect a Clemson victory here...Miami ain't that good after all.)
Ohio State vs. Wisconsin (Yes, believe it or not, i think Wisconsin will beat Ohio State with J.T. Barrett...i know that Wisconsin hasn't played many good teams this year, but in my opinion, they're playoff-worthy.)
The loser of Georgia Auburn WILL NOT make the top 4. It may look that way with Auburn, but I'm, sorry you can't take a 3 loss team even if the loss is 2-0 on a safety, and obviously Georgia, already out of the top 4, wouldn't climb to the top 4 with a loss.
I think the more interesting debate, one which no one is talking about is what happens if Clemson loses a close game (let's say a Miami field goal as the clock strikes 0:00), & Ohio State beats Wisconsin by 20+ points. To me it's not much of a debate; Clemson in over BOTH Alabama & Ohio State as the 4th team and really it shouldn't be close. Clemson lost by 3 on the road to a 5-7 team with their starting QB hurt half the game; Ohio State lost on the road to a 7-5 team by about 25 points with their starting QB playing the entire game. Get them out of here!
There is no way you can assume Auburn won"t get in with 3 losses. Georgia I profess would be a very long shot, because you would have to move them ahead of Bama as well as another team despite losing; and their one signature win would be ages ago vs Notre Dame, that doesn't Look all that amazing present time. However there are no real crazy scenarios if Auburn barely lost. You agree OSU shouldn't be part of the playoff discussion, and your going to get a pretty healthy debate on who would have a better claim to a playoff berth- Bama or Auburn. Clemson beats Miami. OSU beats Wisconsin. Oklahoma beats TCU. Out of 4 bids, how can you say there is no possibility for Auburn? It does matter they are #2, hence they more wiggle room for error. It doesn't matter how many losses they end up with. The committee isn't going to suddenly alter its parameters and treat Auburn's body of work vs the rest of the candidates any differently because suddenly there is unwritten rule that nobody except fans and media seem to believe is part of the criteria; that 3 losses disqualifies a candidate.
As for the Clrmdon 2nd loss, I have heard tons about that hypothetical and the conventional wisdom has been if they lose, they still will get in. It gets interesting perhaps only if Miami blows them out.
Yes, it is, and everyone knows this because Ohio State got pwned at home. It is a different situation when you are playing on the road in a rivalry game against a quality opponent. Most fans, if being honest with themselves, would probably agree that Auburn would wreck about everyone right now, and especially if they're playing at home.
I know some people say the Committee shouldn't factor in home field advantage, and that losses and wins should count the same no matter the venue, but we all know this isn't true, so why go along with that fiction? A loss at home and a loss on the road are not equal.
There's obviously a lot of subjectivity here, which is why Penn State, presumably the best team in the Big Ten by virtue of their Big Ten championship, didn't make the Playoff. Subjectively speaking, should a team that's been dismantled by an unranked team be competing for a national championship? There's something that seems off about that.
Losing your QB obviously affects morale, unless you believe that BC was a much tougher matchup for FSU than Alabama was. FSU still had the talent to compete against the best teams, which is why they played Clemson pretty tough, but everyone knew their season was a goner once Francois went down. You can see that in the thread about Francois going down for the season.
I think you are stretching your argument too far claiming that the two score lose to Auburn can be distinguished from and judged more favorably than OSUs two score loss to Okie (in Sept. by the way).
You bring up rivalry games, rivalry games should be close no matter the talent and outcome of the season. So why does Bama lose by two scores to a team that couldn't beat LSU. And should we discount OSU loss to Okie and chalk it up as revenge from the year before? If you want to get into to all these "excuses" than I guess. But the fact remains both teams lost by two scores. So to discredit one over the other or say one is far better than the other. Why go down that road, when you have other facts.
We have other criteria that stands on its own merits (like OSU losing to Iowa by 31, or OSU having 3 better wins than Bama's best win, or if OSU wins a conference championship while the other does not)
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