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I am starting to think more and more than next year will be the end of the Big XII. If this contract doesn't end up delivering the money A&M was promised, they are going to call the SEC back. Also have to consider the Big Ten's schedule where they might invite more teams between the end of the year and next June.
I think if the Pac-16 goes ahead which I think it eventually will it will be UT, Texas Tech, OU, and OSU with A&M to the SEC and Missouri to Big Ten or SEC.
if there was going to be a Pac 16, I think it would have happend this year.
I think it is still inevitable and very well could be next year. There is starting to be rumblings from Texas A&M that the money the Big XII promised might not come along with what the Big Ten does after the 12-18 timetable they planned out.
The guess is that we already know who the four teams will be, it is just when it happens. The question is would Texas (who is the keystone in all of this) accept if any more teams leave the Big XII (Texas A&M and/or Missouri are the teams most likely to trigger this)?
Texas Tech are not getting an invite from the SEC.
Texas Tech would not for the simple reason of the school is in the far Western end of the state in Lubbock. They would be the Texas school that goes with UT in a Pac 16 scenario. Actually the Pac now at 12 will give cover to A&M going to the SEC eventually since there are not enough spots for both A&M and TT since in taking OU they will have to take OSU for political reasons. (And T. Boone Pickens money)
The only question now is when does it happen Tuberville's comments in my opinion are correct in eventually the Big XII will collapse since no longstanding issues were corrected. My guess is 50/50 it is after this season since there are two triggers that are coming up and the teams that are key to watch are Texas A&M and Mizzou. (Who might be secretly working together in some scenarios for certain reasons)
1. The Big Ten is still on their timeline for expansion and might decide to expand again after this year. If they decide to go to 14 with 16 later and are interested in Missouri, they might have to take them then for a reason I will explain later. In doing so the proposed Big XII contract might really be shaky which makes Texas A&M call the SEC again which if they bolt drops the total number of teams to 8. UT might start talking to the PAC at that point since conference strength becomes an issue since with the current proposed 10 team setup this would take out teams that might in the long term average the number 3 and 4 teams making the divide between UT, OU with the rest of the conference larger which isn't in either schools best interests.
2. Texas A&M sees that the media contract does not deliver on the revenue promised them which is why they didn't leave. (Political reasons might also of been in play, but stated earlier it might be less in the future due to the PAC can only take 4 now which means they can say going seperate ways protects Texas Tech) In doing this the Big Ten will likely have to immediately decide if they want to invite Missouri or they might lose their shot at them. This is due to reports right before UT decided to stay that A&M was pitching for Mizzou to join them to the SEC. (The SEC did want OU but they stated they wanted to stick with UT) Have to note that the SEC did mention they were not looking at ACC teams in any expansion first, especially the 4 Southernmost teams due to footprint. The NC or VA teams are unlikely to budge due to various political reasons. (VT even stated they weren't interested which will likely be the case, unless Virginia winds up in the Big Ten which isn't beyond the realm of possibilities as a longshot) There is some concern that the SEC might in delaying end up as the most regional of any superconference, the problem is there aren't many schools that can expand their footprint and be interested. They would also prefer the number 1 or 2 university in a state as well and prefer schools that are not tier-3 academically. (University presidents vote on things so academics do play some role and they are aware of the reputation of the SEC, they would love to find AAU universities on their list)
I just am seeing the Pac-16 scenario happening sooner than later under my scenarios with it being near certain by 2020.
Texas Tech are not getting an invite from the SEC.
Is the SEC afraid of Tech, with Tuberville as HC?
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