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Old 01-25-2020, 09:27 AM
 
1,190 posts, read 1,177,640 times
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Yes- right now it is "as good as it gets".

Since government (just like many people these days) does not live below their means and save for a rainy day the recession (yes- we will see one eventually) will be brutal.

We have been raising prices, taxes, and esp. minimum wages in Colorado (Denver is going to at least $15/hour) due to the economy the last few years.

When the recession hits expect a lot of restaurants and other small business closing.
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Old 01-25-2020, 11:18 AM
 
Location: We_tside PNW (Columbia Gorge) / CO / SA TX / Thailand
34,548 posts, read 57,460,499 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LHS79 View Post
Yes- right now it is "as good as it gets".

Since government (just like many people these days) does not live below their means and save for a rainy day the recession (yes- we will see one eventually) will be brutal.

We have been raising prices, taxes, and esp. minimum wages in Colorado (Denver is going to at least $15/hour) due to the economy the last few years.

When the recession hits expect a lot of restaurants and other small business closing.
Those who have been just getting by during boom times will have a rough adjustment. I expect to hear a lot of complaining.
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Old 02-20-2020, 08:27 AM
 
Location: Concord, CA
7,120 posts, read 9,185,840 times
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Colorado Springs cost of living rises above national average for 2019

https://gazette.com/business/colorad...dfaf2b76a.html

"The cost of living in Colorado Springs last year rose above the national average for the first time in the 13 years since the annual city figure has been calculated.

The city’s cost of living was 100.8% of the national average in 2019, up from 98.8% in 2018, according to a survey by the Council for Community and Economic Research. The Arlington, Va.-based group has calculated an annual average since 2007.

Indexes for the second and third quarters of last year were above the national average, so it’s no surprise that the annual number also exceeded the national average.

Tatiana Bailey, director of the University of Colorado at Colorado Springs Economic Forum, said a rising cost of living is the “downside of robust economic growth. We are seeing growth in high-paying jobs, so demand for higher-priced items has gone up and pushed prices upward. Health care costs are the largest expense for most businesses and continue to increase.”

While the cost of housing rose only slightly compared with the national average, components measuring utilities, health care and miscellaneous goods and services all moved sharply higher and played a larger role in pushing the overall index above the national average. Components measuring groceries and transportation declined when compared with the national average.

Costs in Denver remained above the national average and higher than Colorado Springs, but declined to 110.8% of the average last year from 113.2% in 2018. Grand Junction and Pueblo rose compared with the national average to 99.3% and 94.5%, respectively. Boulder, Fort Collins and Greeley are not included in the survey.

The council’s index doesn’t measure inflation. Instead, it compares prices for 60 goods and services used or purchased by households where managers and professionals live in 266 metro areas. It’s designed to help managers compare living costs when moving to another city."
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Old 02-20-2020, 01:01 PM
 
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Whether Colorado Springs experiences a recession or not is almost certainly dependent on the national economic picture. I do think we will see the start of a recession at some point in 2020, but a big part of that is simply because we are now in the longest expansion period in US history. Economies are cyclical beasts, and this boom cycle has been running longer than any boom cycle in history (10.5 years) -- at some point it will end.

However, the government has been debt-financing this boom period with cheap money and corporate tax cuts. Remember, any tax cut during a budget deficit is debt-financed. We have a very odd situation now in that we have a strong economy -- one that has been strong for a long time -- and extremely low interest rates. I'm not sure this combination has ever existed to this level, and that has caused, in my opinion, soaring asset prices (real estate and stocks especially). Household non-housing debt is now 55% higher than it was at the start of the great recession twelve years ago (not adjusted for pop growth). Housing debt is now equal.

My whole point is that we have had some really great growth over the last eight years or so, but much of that growth has been supported with low interest rates and government spending. Low interest rates have led to inflated assets and household debt, both of which have built a very, very large pile of dry wood. Whether a match is going to light it all up is something I don't know, but I think there's real risk and several potential matches that could be lit. A recession that leads to job losses and the devaluation of major assets could quickly propagate throughout the economy and have a snowball effect. To make matters worse, low interest rates mean the Fed has few tools with which to respond. In fact, Fed chair Powell testified before congress about a week ago and said that Congress should be prepared to step in if something happens because the Fed doesn't have its normal tools (lowering rates) available.

Recessions are hard to predict, and, fortunately, trouble in specific asset classes (real estate, stocks, etc) doesn't necessarily spell economy-wide trouble. My hope is that the big pile of dry wood doesn't get lit, but there's no denying that we have built quite a pile.

Last edited by Wittgenstein's Ghost; 02-20-2020 at 01:09 PM..
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Old 02-23-2020, 02:16 PM
 
Location: The 719
17,874 posts, read 27,262,848 times
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Originally Posted by DrDog View Post
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Originally Posted by Mike from back east View Post
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Originally Posted by BornintheSprings View Post
I thought Republicans were going to bring back high paying jobs that only require a sixth grade education?
That would be the current set of cabinet officials.
True. Never been a time or a place where a select few aren’t stealing from the masses.
Waa! Not my pWesident WAA!

Whayowz that darned Wessession? Waa!

I came back here to see if Bill Maher has posted yet. Y'all would make him might proud.
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Old 02-28-2020, 02:36 PM
 
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IMO, the stock selloff that we are seeing (the fastest correction after a record high of all time) has the legs that it does because prices were so inflated. Coronavirus is the obvious trigger here, but if investors were both confident that they weren't sitting on a giant asset bubble and that the economy was rock solid, the selloff wouldn't have been this bad (and there's likely more to come).

I think the odds are that we will see a recession in 2020, and I fully expect the Dow to test 21-22k. Rates will drop even lower, so I have no idea if this will affect the real estate market in a big way. Who knows, though....I've been wrong before!
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Old 02-28-2020, 03:14 PM
 
Location: Manitou Springs
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As long as we don't get stuck bailing big banks out again ...
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Old 02-28-2020, 11:47 PM
 
799 posts, read 1,056,512 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost View Post
IMO, the stock selloff that we are seeing (the fastest correction after a record high of all time) has the legs that it does because prices were so inflated. Coronavirus is the obvious trigger here, but if investors were both confident that they weren't sitting on a giant asset bubble and that the economy was rock solid, the selloff wouldn't have been this bad (and there's likely more to come).

I think the odds are that we will see a recession in 2020, and I fully expect the Dow to test 21-22k. Rates will drop even lower, so I have no idea if this will affect the real estate market in a big way. Who knows, though....I've been wrong before!
This shouldn't affect real estate. This market selloff is because China is the epicenter of these virus and they are shutting down factories and now so is Japan. This is why you see such panic. I think most people don't understand that we are now in a global economy. When something affects one part of the world it affects it everywhere. Until we see this virus start to deteriorate panic is going to ensue because people don't know what will happen.
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Old 02-29-2020, 10:45 AM
 
Location: Colorado Springs
3,959 posts, read 4,328,386 times
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Global economics have impacted CO since the 1830s when the demand for beaver fur top hats sent trappers into the Rockies.
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Old 03-12-2020, 10:35 AM
 
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Well, we're at the 21-22k figure I mentioned, and I think there's more to go. Congress' in-house doctor has said that he expects 70-150 million Americans to become infected with the coronavirus. That's up to half of the country.

That is in line with predictions from experts like Harvard epidemiologist Brian Monahan, who has estimated that 20-60% of the world's population will get it. I certainly hope this 3% death rate doesn't hold. It would be incredibly tragic. Markets are right to be spooked.
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