Winter in Colorado, 2012-2013 (Denver, Colorado Springs: transportation, land, counties)

[denverian]

Originally Posted by Josseppie

More rain in Pueblo last night. I am not sure but in the city I don't think it changed to snow at all. This is the second storm to be all rain this winter.

Here in Denver it just depended upon your elevation. My house in Denver had barely a dusting on the grass, but along my way to work, as I want down in elevation, there was no snow on the grass, but by the time I got to work in the south metro area, there was a couple inches on the grass. But it was raining when I went to bed last night. I don't think I've ever seen it rain in Denver in Jan/Feb in my 10 winters here.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by jazzlover

This portends a very poor year for Colorado agriculture--an industry that, though the city-slickers are loathe to admit--comprises one of the four largest components of economic activity in Colorado. The continuing drought does not portend well for the summer tourist season, another major component of the Colorado economy.

Where are you getting the figures for the impact of the agricultural sector in Colorado? Not that I'm calling bull**** but the biggest number I've seen is $20 billion out of a state GDP of about $230 billion, or about 8.7%. But this includes such things as finished food production (cheese, beer, bread, etc) and not just the contributing factors to basic agricultural production which are estimated to account for about $6 billion.

[jazzlover]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

Where are you getting the figures for the impact of the agricultural sector in Colorado? Not that I'm calling bull**** but the biggest number I've seen is $20 billion out of a state GDP of about $230 billion, or about 8.7%. But this includes such things as finished food production (cheese, beer, bread, etc) and not just the contributing factors to basic agricultural production which are estimated to account for about $6 billion.

Here is a good place to start.

http://www.colorado.gov/cs/Satellite...&ssbinary=true

It should be noted that agricultural processing provides a considerable percentage of the total agricultural contribution to the state economy--not surprising. That said, agricultural processing in Colorado, like most anywhere else, is dependent upon the production of crops and livestock in the surrounding region. So, it is quite logical that a decline in production of crops or livestock in the region for whatever cause (in this case, drought) is going to have a serious effect on the processing component of the Colorado agricultural economy. If those declines is basic production become semi-permanent or permanent, then the processing component of that sector (along with the related employment) may disappear permanently. A couple of examples where that has happened in the last 30 years are the severe shrinkage of the fruit production processing industry in western Colorado and the shrinkage in the sugar beet processing industry statewide.

A very notable statistic is how much ag processing activity contributes to employment in Denver County--so problems in the agricultural economy will indeed have a significant effect on the metro areas. Both the amount of land area and the percentage of economic activity that agriculture provides to many of the rural areas of Colorado demonstrates the importance of agriculture to the continued economic viability of many Colorado communities away from the metro areas, as well

[jazzlover]

Originally Posted by CosmicWizard

jazzlover wrote: As I've been saying for weeks now, I expected them to be pretty dismal for Colorado--and, sadly, I'm pretty much right.

YOU and all the rest of us are ALWAYS right. We get whatever we expect. Get over yourself. It's no big deal to be right. As I've been saying for almost 6 years now on this forum, expectations influence outcomes. Apparently, many other negaholics have been holding expectations of a similar outcome. And you know what...It's not yet a done deal. IF there are more people having expectations of above average precipitation in the Colorado high country, then that is how it will play out. If the negaholics prevail, then their expectations will come to pass. If you choose to wallow in your negative expectations, then acknowledge that you are part of the problem. Wake up and recognize that your mindset has an impact on what plays out.

Cosmic, respectfully, that's GARBAGE. I can expect 20" of rain to happen in the next week in Grand Junction with all my heart, wish for it every day for a year--and the chances of it happening are going to be exactly the same as if I didn't--near zilch. There may be things that people's attitude can control--the weather isn't one of them. And anybody that is not preparing for (and yes, expecting as a high probability) serious drought conditions to persist clear into summer in Colorado is a damned fool.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by jazzlover

Here is a good place to start.

http://www.colorado.gov/cs/Satellite...&ssbinary=true

Interesting, the value added numbers (GDP) are pretty damn close to what the BEA reports. Too bad it's not the full report with the data and methodology and I can't seem to find it.

Thanks.

[jim9251]

Looks like it's going to be an interesting weekend for the western slope. Winter Storm Warning in effect:

A VIGOROUS PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM ENTERING CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE
OVER NEVADA BY THIS EVENING AND ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO ON SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BRING SNOWFALL TO SOUTH-FACING SLOPES WITH HEAVIER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER THE
COLD FRONT PASSES SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST-FACING SLOPES. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS A REINFORCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA. THOSE AREAS WITH ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS
WILL SEE TIMES OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY
A LULL IN ACTIVITY THAT MAY LAST FROM 6 TO 12 HOURS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION PICKS UP AGAIN. THIS ON AGAIN OFF AGAIN ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE ON SUNDAY AS THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVES
OUT AND THEN NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST MOUNTAINS AND
PLATEAUS OF WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

[CosmicWizard]

jazzlover wrote: Cosmic, respectfully, that's GARBAGE. I can expect 20" of rain to happen in the next week in Grand Junction with all my heart, wish for it every day for a year--and the chances of it happening are going to be exactly the same as if I didn't--near zilch. There may be things that people's attitude can control--the weather isn't one of them. And anybody that is not preparing for (and yes, expecting as a high probability) serious drought conditions to persist clear into summer in Colorado is a damned fool.

Expecting 20 inches of rain to happen in the next week in Grand Junction is an ridiculous example. You know very well that the likelihood of that taking place is next to nothing, so naturally, believing and expecting such an event to unfold is also next to zero. Let me clarify that I'm talking about the normal events that have readily occurred in the past. Heavy late winter and early spring snowfalls is a fairly common event, so why not expect that to occur rather than focusing on the likelihood of persistent drought. Focusing on what is ( current conditions ), merely gives energy to the continuation of what is. It's crazy to believe that something will change, by continuing to focus is on the current conditions.

Physicist Werner Heisenberg developed a key principle of quantum mechanics, known as The Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle which states that the act of observing an event influences its outcome or destiny. He also tell us that the time to change the world is before form has emerged from the formless, before energy has manifested into matter. According to this principle of quantum physics, your expectation of continuing or worsening drought, increases the chance of that taking place. The time of the big snows has not yet arrived. It is however a very real possibility. So now is the time to expect BIG SNOWS, even if we see the BIG SNOWS only in our minds, it is nonetheless a form of observation, thus having an impact on what plays out.

Based on my understanding of what Heisenberg is telling us, those who continue to EXPECT persistent drought are the damned fools, and also active participants in bringing it about. In other words, like it or not, people like you with a strong conviction of continuing drought are part of the problem. The real foolishness is to believe that you can think negatively about a given situation and not experience a negative outcome. To me, that is the real absurdity in this matter!

[jazzlover]

^
Well, if wishes were horses, we would all ride.

I've been wishing, hoping, pining, praying, conjuring--you pick the term--for this drought to end in the Rockies. I've been doing that for over a year. Why? In part, because I have a lot of friends in agriculture who are in danger of losing their farms and their livelihood if the drought goes for another year. So, don't give me that "You've got negative vibes" garbage.

Recently, there was a documentary (noted elsewhere on the Colorado forum) from Ken Burns on the Dust Bowl on the Great Plains, an epicenter of that being in southeastern Colorado. The great lesson there was that the "eternal opitmist" farmers--the "this drought will end by next year" crowd--actually helped intensify the drought's effects because they refused to acknowledge reality and continued to plow and plant as if things were going to magically return to normal. Based on those hard lessons, my farmer friends are busy trying to figure out how to cope with reality of the drought--cutting back planting, changing crops, living land fallow--anything to survive a very real problem. Nothing would please me more than seeing this drought end tomorrow, but the best minds in the business of prediction of short-term climate trends just are not seeing that as the likely outcome.

As for the current predicted storm, the NWS discussion has indicated for a couple of days now that available moisture is "limited" with this storm, just as most have been this winter--and last winter. And, if my realistic thinking about things is why, there are a whole lot of other things that I'm going to think about really hard--and see if I can make them happen. Hmmm, I wonder what those might be?

[Josseppie]

Originally Posted by denverian

Here in Denver it just depended upon your elevation. My house in Denver had barely a dusting on the grass, but along my way to work, as I want down in elevation, there was no snow on the grass, but by the time I got to work in the south metro area, there was a couple inches on the grass. But it was raining when I went to bed last night. I don't think I've ever seen it rain in Denver in Jan/Feb in my 10 winters here.

After I posted this I talked to people and found out that in parts of the Pueblo Metro area it did change to snow. At my house it was raining when I went to bed and when I woke up there was no snow on the grass. I did not see any new snow in the city so if it did snow it did not stick which is odd for February.

[CosmicWizard]

jazzlover wrote: I've been wishing, hoping, pining, praying, conjuring--you pick the term--for this drought to end in the Rockies. I've been doing that for over a year. Why? In part, because I have a lot of friends in agriculture who are in danger of losing their farms and their livelihood if the drought goes for another year. So, don't give me that "You've got negative vibes" garbage.

What you are doing here on the forum is indeed negative in the sense that you consistently focus on what you say you do NOT want. I’m not saying that is bad thing, only that you tend to focus on the negative ( what you don't want ). Whatever we focus upon is what we get….wether we want it or not. Why keep focusing on a reality that you do NOT want, when you can just as easily focus on a reality that you do want. Think Snow! See big heaping mounds of snow accumulating in the Colorado mountains, and notice how good that makes you feel. That's a far cry from wishing, hoping, and praying.