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Old 12-16-2013, 03:15 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzlover View Post
We haven't had a real tomcat of a winter like some of those that I've experienced in Colorado for a long time. A lot of the newbies and transplants crow about how Colorado's climate is really pretty mild and benign. Maybe global warming has made it that way for good, but I doubt it. One of these winters, Mother Nature is likely going to show the newbies just how big of a b*tch a "real" Colorado winter can be.
The potential for wide spread serious storm conditions remains and folk recently arrived haven't seen what goes on when storms like the Halloween or Christmas storms of just a few years ago along the Front Range can do.

It's not just Colorado that's been mild for a few recent winters, Wyoming and into the Dakota's haven't seen the serious weather patterns for awhile.

But this Fall started off with one early massive cold storm in the area, with lots of livestock losses.

I was visiting today with friends from Torrington, and they mentioned that on one of the Turner bison ranches (where one of their family members works) ... they had 6 yearling bison freeze to death in the storm. Another rancher nearby lost half of his horses, they got trapped in a low area by a barn and couldn't make it into the shelter a few hundred feet away. Similar stories about cattle and horses from around the area are common; the livestock losses from the cold were heavy for the livestock that wasn't in shelters.

We've already had mid -20's F overnight temps with daytime highs barely reaching 0 F here at our ranch in SE WY. The winter wind patterns have already set in with some winds strong enough that CDOT has closed I-25, and WYDOT has closed I-80 a few times already due to the winds. We drove to Laramie today and the gusts were in excess of 50 mph starting just west of Cheyenne ... with the high profile vehicle warnings posted. Fortunately, it was a warm day so not very wintry, forecast to remain that way into this week. But all it takes to change that is another artic front moving in and we'll be back to the conditions of a few weeks ago with -20s overnight again.

Even with these mild winters of the last few years, we've still seen a lot of "two and gone" folk through this area due to the difficulties of acclimating to that level of winter.

We'll see what presents this year in the high country. What I'm hearing from a lot of folk from outside this region is they think it's further "south" from what they're used to, so it's got to be a warmer climate than up north. What they don't appreciate is the lapse rate for the altitude and the winds that can bring artic fronts down here that flow along the mountains down to ground level rather than staying aloft over flatlands at lower elevations.


As far as Gunnison goes for cold ... We had a late Summer fly-in there (IIRC, 20 years ago) for a Cessna club which brought in a sizable group from the Mid-Atlantic and SE states who wanted to tour the Rockies. None of those guys could start their planes the next morning because they weren't used to the altitude and the cold combination, so cranked their batteries dead trying ... not one understood how much priming was needed to start in those cold conditions or to keep priming if their engine did start to fire. Most of that group were pro pilots, but not used to having their planes out on the ramp in a cold climate. A couple of us local pilots had to start their planes for them, and we did a lot of hand propping that day to get them going before leading the group to Telluride for the day's Colorado tour. None of those pilots from back East wanted to spend another night in the high country, they left a day early to return to lower elevations ... and at that, airports where they could have their planes in a heated hangar overnight. Meanwhile, the Colorado pilots camped out at the Gunnison KOA as planned for another night ... and flew home on Sunday after having no unusual problems with starting our planes that morning.
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Old 12-16-2013, 08:54 AM
 
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sunsprit,

That cold snap that whacked Wyoming in the last couple of weeks did extend far into the southern Rockies, as well. I think that the northern areas got more snow, though--which is not unusual at this time of year. As you note, though, this wasn't a permanent cold snap--things have warmed back up considerably.

One has to wonder, though, if this winter could at least resemble the winter of 1948-1949. That winter started out on the Plains with a vicious blizzard bout in November, then moderated some in December, only to culminate in the vicious cold and blizzards that raked the region almost constantly from late December through February. in Colorado, the mountains got a lot of snow and very cold temperatures that winter, but were spared quite a bit of the blizzard conditions. The Plains, however, got the brunt of all of it. One of those few times that places like Gunnison were probably better off than places in eastern Colorado, western Nebraska, and SE Wyoming. Oh, and that winter, it also snowed clear down to southern California--as far south as San Diego. I fervently wish for a winter like that this year--if only to have sustained frigid temperatures lasting long enough to kill off a lot of the pine beetle infestation in the Rockies. By the way, the lodgepole forests around Gunnison have been largely spared from the scourge so far, but they won't be for very long unless something like frigid cold weather stops the pine beetle's march through the Rockies.

And, as to your comment that there a lot of "two and out" transplants showing up then leaving this region, that's absolutely true, even with the last few years of mild winters. I'm firmly convinced that we have become so "wussified" as a society that there a lot of people, maybe a majority, that simply are not sturdy enough to withstand "real" winter. They get their undies in a bunch if the temperature gets down to 20° F. They would totally freak out at -50° F. I'm at the age that most people are pining to go to Arizona or someplace else warm in the winter. Not me. I revel in cold, snowy weather and I don't mind getting out in it. My bones are little more creaky than they used to be, but I still love winter--as much as I did when I was a kid. One of things that I liked when I lived in Gunnison years ago was that the kids weren't inside couch potatoes in winter. In fact, the whole time that I lived there, the primary and secondary schools, as well as the college, never had a school day cancelled because of snow or cold. Back then, they didn't even have school bus service within town. The kids had to walk to school--even if it was -40° or lower. They also played outside at recess, even if the temperature was only "up" to -25° F. I walked 7 blocks back and forth to my college classes every day--sometimes two or three times a day in those temperatures and didn't think anything about it.
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Old 12-16-2013, 09:20 AM
 
Location: Pluto's Home Town
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Just hypothesizing, but I think we may be seeing a transition to a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation pattern, reminiscent of the 1940s-1970s, which tend to be associated with more arctic outbreaks and cooler, wetter conditions. The global warming denirers will be having a field day, but it is largely a cyclical pattern on the larger warming pattern. My observation is that a substantial part of the big warming (hockey stick pattern) from about 1970-2000 was the negative to positive PDO, which was put forward as accelerating warming by many. Now, if we shift to the negative, we could see more of the extreme events you describe.

Speaking of wimpy. Over here in Oregon, we had one 8" snowfall, followed by ~0 temps and the schools closed for three days! I was rather frustrated to say the least, as the school is at the end of out street. Sheesh.
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Old 12-16-2013, 09:53 AM
 
Location: USA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzlover View Post
sunsprit,

That cold snap that whacked Wyoming in the last couple of weeks did extend far into the southern Rockies, as well. I think that the northern areas got more snow, though--which is not unusual at this time of year. As you note, though, this wasn't a permanent cold snap--things have warmed back up considerably.

One has to wonder, though, if this winter could at least resemble the winter of 1948-1949. That winter started out on the Plains with a vicious blizzard bout in November, then moderated some in December, only to culminate in the vicious cold and blizzards that raked the region almost constantly from late December through February. in Colorado, the mountains got a lot of snow and very cold temperatures that winter, but were spared quite a bit of the blizzard conditions. The Plains, however, got the brunt of all of it. One of those few times that places like Gunnison were probably better off than places in eastern Colorado, western Nebraska, and SE Wyoming. Oh, and that winter, it also snowed clear down to southern California--as far south as San Diego. I fervently wish for a winter like that this year--if only to have sustained frigid temperatures lasting long enough to kill off a lot of the pine beetle infestation in the Rockies. By the way, the lodgepole forests around Gunnison have been largely spared from the scourge so far, but they won't be for very long unless something like frigid cold weather stops the pine beetle's march through the Rockies.

And, as to your comment that there a lot of "two and out" transplants showing up then leaving this region, that's absolutely true, even with the last few years of mild winters. I'm firmly convinced that we have become so "wussified" as a society that there a lot of people, maybe a majority, that simply are not sturdy enough to withstand "real" winter. They get their undies in a bunch if the temperature gets down to 20° F. They would totally freak out at -50° F. I'm at the age that most people are pining to go to Arizona or someplace else warm in the winter. Not me. I revel in cold, snowy weather and I don't mind getting out in it. My bones are little more creaky than they used to be, but I still love winter--as much as I did when I was a kid. One of things that I liked when I lived in Gunnison years ago was that the kids weren't inside couch potatoes in winter. In fact, the whole time that I lived there, the primary and secondary schools, as well as the college, never had a school day cancelled because of snow or cold. Back then, they didn't even have school bus service within town. The kids had to walk to school--even if it was -40° or lower. They also played outside at recess, even if the temperature was only "up" to -25° F. I walked 7 blocks back and forth to my college classes every day--sometimes two or three times a day in those temperatures and didn't think anything about it.
I'm probably the same age as you, but I don't trust memories as a a barometer of what the weather was like back in the day. And I'd never live in Gunnison (even with it's "milder" 2013 climate). But it cuts both ways. Have a cold lover spend a summer in Palm Springs and see how tough he is.
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Old 12-16-2013, 10:36 AM
 
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Originally Posted by xeric View Post
I'm probably the same age as you, but I don't trust memories as a a barometer of what the weather was like back in the day. And I'd never live in Gunnison (even with it's "milder" 2013 climate). But it cuts both ways. Have a cold lover spend a summer in Palm Springs and see how tough he is.
While likely in the same age brackets here ...

I don't always trust my memories, either.

But as a GA pilot ... I've got my logbooks and notations of what we encountered. For the most part, I believe that pilots are more weather savvy and pay attention to what's going on then the average joe on the street, because for us, weather has consequences.

And, as a real estate investor in the area, I've got my records of what I have to deal with across the region. You haven't had "fun" until you're asleep at home in the Foothills around Denver in sub-zero temps in the dead of night and you get a frantic phone call from a tenant in Vail advising that the house is being flooded because the HWBB heat register in a room has frozen (due to an open window) and then thawed when the residents came home and raised the t-stat in the adjacent hallway. Sudden response in sub-zero temps not an option for the property owner; and accurate records for insurance and tax purposes essential. Thinking, too, of the trips I had to make to Vail to clear plumbing when house guests tried to flush unsuitable items down a toilet and flooded a bathroom, or it was just unusable at that point during their stay and not optional to get it working again for them ASAP.

As well, I had a HS friend whose family had a cabin right on the Gunnison, just outside of town. We went there for his family get-togethers over the holidays for years, then more when we both went to Boulder for school. I well recall learning for the first time what cold outdoor activities were ... snowmobiling or x-country skiing in the area. He grew up with that stuff ... I didn't, and the first few years were brutal for me, especially learning to drive the winter roads for those trips. He had a '57 Chevy station wagon with the 6-cylinder and 3-speed w/overdrive, a real tank of a vehicle which needed chains on more than a few trips to get through the inclement roads.

I've spent enough time in the Tucson (before Tucson got developed into Tucson as we know it in recent decades), Phoenix area, Sedona, the Anza-Borrego desert area, and Palm Springs to know that hot weather didn't agree with me years ago ... and it's worse for me now. Call me a wimp if you must, but the extreme temps in these areas don't last for as many months as the winter clime persists at altitude, nor does the hot season bring with it inclement driving conditions.
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Old 12-16-2013, 11:21 AM
 
Location: CO/UT/AZ/NM Catch me if you can!
6,926 posts, read 6,931,152 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fiddlehead View Post
Just hypothesizing, but I think we may be seeing a transition to a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation pattern, reminiscent of the 1940s-1970s, which tend to be associated with more arctic outbreaks and cooler, wetter conditions. The global warming denirers will be having a field day, but it is largely a cyclical pattern on the larger warming pattern. My observation is that a substantial part of the big warming (hockey stick pattern) from about 1970-2000 was the negative to positive PDO, which was put forward as accelerating warming by many. Now, if we shift to the negative, we could see more of the extreme events you describe.

Speaking of wimpy. Over here in Oregon, we had one 8" snowfall, followed by ~0 temps and the schools closed for three days! I was rather frustrated to say the least, as the school is at the end of out street. Sheesh.
I'm in agreement with Fiddlehead re global warming. If ever I had any doubts (hopes), the warm temperatures I experienced at high elevations in the San Juans last summer quashed them pretty effectively. The recent cold snap had us down to - 15F out here in Cortez which brought back memories of living out in the Four Corners back in the 80's. We had cold winters with plenty of snow in Durango, but in all that time I remember Ft Lewis College closing only once. I think this was only because the administration was bowing to the inevitable - Ft Lewis students were going to hit the slopes at Purgy come hell or the coldest winter on record. I think I've mentioned elsewhere here that my favorite way of getting to work up at the college was to strap on my mountaineering ski's and head up the mesa on them. Heck I remember getting around Manitou Springs in the 70's on those ski's. When I was a student at CU my friends and I even went winter camping. What a bunch of crazy Colorado kids we were! Good times.

People in Colorado do seem to have become wimpier despite the recent trend toward warmer winters. If 3 snow flakes fall, everything closes down and I don't know if a single child walks to school anymore. My memories are similiar to jazz's (although I wasn't even a twinkle in my Dad's eye in '48 ). In the 50's and 60's little girls had to wear dresses to school. On snowy days my Mom would tuck my skirts into a pair of snow pants, and I'd shove my Mary Janes into a pair of snow boots and off I went. It never crossed my Mom's mind (or any other parent's) to drive me to school, and I'm glad it didn't. We kids had the best time throwing snowballs at each other and making snow angels - especially on the WALK back home thru the snow. If we'd been kept in for recess, we'd have turned into wild children and I doubt the teacher could have controlled the class.

I also can't beleive how warm people keep their houses in the winter - what a waste of energy. In the middle of the most recent cold snap I had to go visit a woman originally from back East somewhere and I thought I was going to die in the tropic temperatures she had her thermostadt dialed to. I AM a wimp about heat. Once the thermometer consistently starts going over 80 degrees that's a signal for me to head to the hills to make summer camp. But last summer I experienced temps of 80 and above by 9AM even at elevations as high as 10,000 feet - upset me no end.

On the other hand, the warmer winters or just all around ignorance seems to have given some people some crazy ideas about how mild the winter temps are in Colorado these days. I had a huge argument with a member of the Arizona forum who claimed it was possible for a person with no other resources to get through a Colorado winter by just camping out in December and January. Well, a few of us native Coloradans could do that - I could, but it's not an experience that I would relish. However, someone from southern Arizona would have a difficult time attempting to winter over in a tent even on land outside Cortez or Dolores, never mind higher up in the San Juans. The stuff you run into on the Internet!
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Old 12-16-2013, 12:35 PM
 
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I wasn't around yet in 1948, but I knew a lot of folks with vivid memories of the '49 blizzards, and I've researched that event a lot in my studies of both regional and climate/weather history.

While 1948-49 was a particularly vicious winter, there were plenty of others back in that era that were pretty rugged. In the area of central and southern Colorado and northern New Mexico with which I'm most familiar, such very severe winters occurred in 1932, 1949, 1952, and 1957 around the 1930's-1950's era. Many old-timers recall the winter of '51 and '52, which really didn't get cooking until the last couple of days in December of '51, as being one of the worst. By contrast, the last really severe winter that I recall in the region of which I speak was 1978-79, a very long winter with very cold temperatures and a lot of snow that stayed on the ground from Thanksgiving until after Valentine's Day at even the lower elevations. I was running a livestock operation then and vividly remember having to use a bulldozer to pull feed trucks into the feedyard because of all the snow. I drove a 4WD vehicle and I didn't unlock the front hubs for weeks because the roads just stayed snowpacked most of the time. It was a rough winter to be working outside, but I loved every minute of it. Now, there were other winters with singular cold or snow events that were pretty rough, but a bad winter that just lasted and lasted has not happened for a long time. Either we're way overdue, or we humans have screwed the climate up enough to put an end to them. Some might like that latter outcome, but many natural processes in the Rockies require such vigorous winters to occur in order to keep things in balance. The rampage of pine beetles is one example of a pest gong wild because of the lack for years and years of cold winter weather savage enough to kill them off.
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Old 02-06-2014, 01:39 AM
 
Location: Fontana, CA
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Just wanted to know what all the hype was about with Gunnison's temperatures, since it's not even a top 3 cold spot location in Colorado. Craig, Steamboat Springs, Maybell, Alamosa, and maybe even Kremmling and Crested Butte all can get colder than Gunnison. Other close rivals would be Leadville, Breck, and Granby. Also no Gunnison is not usually 20 degrees colder than crested butte both there average low in January is -6 and record around -50. I also check weather stations daily in Colorado to know the usual cold spots in Colorado and other states. Also noticed the flatland area of Colorado have been the coldest the past couple days and hasen't seemed to of affected the mountain towns.
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Old 02-06-2014, 07:51 AM
 
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^To answer the above: Gunnison has experienced years of winter temperatures that have been above their norm. I don't know whether or not that is a permanent condition due to climate change or a long-term trend that may reverse at some point, but anyone who has lived in that area for a long time will tell you that. You are also sort of comparing horses to bowling balls. Leadville and Breckenridge are both about 2,000 feet higher in elevation than Gunnison. One could expect Crested Butte to be colder than Gunnison because it is considerably higher in elevation, but it is not. There are indeed many winter days when Crested Butte is warmer than Gunnison, but it doesn't get quite as warm in the height of summer and that lowers its year-round average. Maybell is indeed one of Colorado's coldest spots in winter (it holds the record, twice), but is also sparsely inhabited. Alamosa historically can hit temperatures near Gunnison's lows, but does get more wind such that it can certainly feel colder. Granby and Kremmling are similarly situated as Gunnison in a high interior valley and can certainly rival Gunnison in cold. For years, Fraser, a few miles east of Granby, was usually reported as Colorado's official cold spot, but the National Weather Service dropped it years ago because it was too high in elevation for their criteria--Gunnison was just under that wire at 7,700 feet elevation. As for Steamboat Springs, it has very abnormally cold and snowy climate for any town in Colorado at its elevation--only 6,700 feet. For a comparison, it is only 200 feet higher in elevation than Cedaredge, but the climates are leagues different. Maybell and Craig also fit in that category with Steamboat in having very rough winter climates for their elevation. Craig, Steamboat, and Maybell can also experience more cloudiness in winter than is typical for many Colorado locales, and that can certainly make it feel colder.

As for the Colorado's Eastern Plains, they are typically a lot warmer in winter than the Colorado mountains, but they can get hit with Canadian cold fronts that skirt down the Front Range and do not penetrate into the mountains. Those are short-lived events that usually pass quickly, unlike the interior valleys of the mountains where savagely cold weather can persist for weeks at a time. That pattern often persists in the Rocky Mountain West all the way north into Alberta--quite often the Plains even that far north are warmer than the mountains and often without snowcover, particularly in areas close to the Front Range or Rocky Mountain Front (two different names for the same farthest east ranges of mountains in the central and northern Rockies) where winter warming Chinook winds are frequently present.

One final note about Gunnison, its official record low is often reported at -50° F. I can tell you that, unofficially, that low temperature has been exceeded numerous times--those very low temperatures recorded on accurate thermometers (mine being one of them when I lived there years back).
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Old 02-06-2014, 05:08 PM
 
Location: Fontana, CA
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I agree with everything you said and I also know that the record low that I have seen is -47 recorded at the airport. I know that the temperature could be different by as much as 10 degrees somewhere in a neighborhood though. Wikipedia has the record low at -60 but they said that was recorded at the blue mesa reservoir. That's about 5 or 10 miles west of Gunnison where nobody lives though. The thing is Craig, Maybell, Steamboat Springs, Kremmling, and Alamosa all have a record low between -49 and -61 which is all colder than Gunnison's airport record low. Also the places with the coldest average lows in winter that I could find is both Gunnison and Crested butte; there both at -6 with a record low of -47. I don't know where the record low in Crested butte is recorded though. The point is though that other places in Colorado have gotten colder than Gunnison.

Edit: Forgot about Pitkin I don't know if it counts because the town is so small with a population of less than 100(66). It has a average low of -8 and a record low of -60.

Last edited by KB24 x JG24; 02-06-2014 at 05:31 PM..
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