pagosa springs (Colorado Springs, Boulder, Durango: sale, rental, HOA fees)

[Coloradoan]

Phazed-Coug:

I agree about the Trujillo Road area, however a lot of that land was recently sold and at some point new developments will be going in. The city/county has placed some moratoriums on getting new water taps/permits into some of these areas, at least until they can get a better handle on the growth.

You're right, there are a lot of "builders" that have moved into the area. It is getting hard to find a reputable builder, it seems like anyone that owns a truck and a hammer calls themself a "builder" here. Those that are reputable have more than enough to keep them busy for a long time. I would either try and find the lot/land that you hope to build on and build at a later date or else buy an existing home.

I think either way you're not going to lose on your investment.

[gc57]

Thanks. Know of any builders that you can trust there?

[jazzlover]

Pagosa Springs in years past was a neat little town--isolated for sure--but in a beautiful setting. Then it got "discovered." Unless you can telecommute or bring your money with you, it's basically unaffordable. Housing prices have exploded--up over 50-100% in some areas in just two years. I don't live there, but I know people who do who have direct knowledge of the real estate market. What people don't understand is that places like Pagosa have mushroomed in popularity in the last 10-25 years because of insanely cheap gasoline prices, abundant disposable income (for tourism, second homes, etc.) and generous transfer payments (pensions, trust funds, etc., etc.). Well, those days are probably about at an end. When that happens, places like Pagosa are going to become isolated and unaffordable places to live. And those inflated real estate prices will tank. I don't know when that day will come, but my prediction is within the next 10 years. Make no mistake, I think Pagosa is still one of most beautiful places in Colorado, but as many old-time Coloradans said back in the Great Depression, "You can't eat the scenery." Want to do some interesting reading? Look at the census figures for rural Colorado from 1890 to about 1950. After the Sliver Panic in 1893 crashed the Colorado economy, the population of nearly all the mountain counties in the state steadily declined for nearly half a century. The scenery was just as beautiful then, but few people could afford to live in the midst of it. I think we're headed for a repeat . . .

[gc57]

Thanks for the doom and gloom

[Mike from back east]

Originally Posted by jazzlover

...snip...Look at the census figures for rural CO from 1890 to about 1950...Silver Panic in 1893 crashed the CO economy, the population of nearly all the mountain counties in the state steadily declined for nearly half a century. The scenery was just as beautiful then, but few people could afford to live in the midst of it. I think we're headed for a repeat . . .

I love to speculate on history....so here goes....prior to the 1950's there was poor mobility. Only way to get here from any distance was by train. Jet travel didn't happen until early 1960's. Interstate highways started in the Eisenhower Administration, probably about mid 1950's. IMO, this largely explains why not much happened until well after the Great Depression and WW-II, when lots of GI's who had seen the world decided that living in the same old place wasn't for them and they struck out on their own. I'm sure the CA experience was much the same... Better transportation opened up the whole country.

Not sure if Pagosa realty market will crash & burn, maybe some adjustment. IMO, there's too much pent up money coming out of coastal areas with the retiring baby boomers. Prices, climate and immigration issues with FL, TX, NM, AZ, NV and CA will make CO, UT, ID, OR, and WA look attractive to millions of people who are about to retire and leave crowded, high-cost coastal areas.

s/Mike

[gc57]

well said, I agree with that one

[I_LUVNM]

I think Mike is right. Pagosa of the past relied on blue collar workers only and before that, long ago the mountain towns all relied on the mines. But the Pagosa of today is much different. The baby boomers and retirees are moving there and they arent looking for employment, they have the money and dont need jobs or very little work. Pagosa offers a beautiful setting and a quiet nice community, pretty much all they need and are looking for ,so I look for Pagosa to not only maintain but steadily go up in prices just like Durango. Pagosa also has the bonus of being a tourist attraction even worldwide, it is a major attraction to Europeans. The new hospital will only encourage retirees to settle there as well. I do see extremely high priced towns like Telluride to have a correction. There are only so many millionaires and a city that refuses to grow will start to recline. The middle class is needed for everyday jobs and a town that wont allow home growth, I am not saying massive sprawling suburbs, but regular home growth, will eventually incur a backlash of no middle class people to support their town.

[jazzlover]

OK, I'm going to weigh back in here for a minute. Mobility absolutely has made Colorado and other areas of the interior West popular in the last 20 years or so. That is exactly what is going to make it a real problem area in the future. The days of cheap energy are over, folks. I am closely attuned to the energy industry and no one there is saying that energy prices will ever drop back to the ridiculously low levels (in real terms) of the 1990's when the influx of population to the Rocky Mountain West exploded. We will probably never again be as "mobile" as we are right now.

The thing that makes the rural areas of Colorado and other Rocky Mountain states attractive is relatively low population and some isolation from the outside world--so long as it's easy and cheap to get to the outside world when that's necessary or desirable. When it's not cheap anymore--but is actually darned expensive, it won't be nearly as attractive. Especially if the outside income that's propping the whole thing up also starts declining.

Call it "doom and gloom" if you wish, but the economic landscape of this country is deteriorating before our eyes. People are just still in denial about it.

[I_LUVNM]

Originally Posted by jazzlover

OK, I'm going to weigh back in here for a minute. Mobility absolutely has made Colorado and other areas of the interior West popular in the last 20 years or so. That is exactly what is going to make it a real problem area in the future. The days of cheap energy are over, folks. I am closely attuned to the energy industry and no one there is saying that energy prices will ever drop back to the ridiculously low levels (in real terms) of the 1990's when the influx of population to the Rocky Mountain West exploded. We will probably never again be as "mobile" as we are right now.

The thing that makes the rural areas of Colorado and other Rocky Mountain states attractive is relatively low population and some isolation from the outside world--so long as it's easy and cheap to get to the outside world when that's necessary or desirable. When it's not cheap anymore--but is actually darned expensive, it won't be nearly as attractive. Especially if the outside income that's propping the whole thing up also starts declining.

Call it "doom and gloom" if you wish, but the economic landscape of this country is deteriorating before our eyes. People are just still in denial about it.

But to say that is to say everywhere in the USA there could be an economic crisis. You are in Wyoming right? Well, that would include you too if you are right. I just dont see that in the west. I see a vibrant west. I know where I am in the Four Corners, the economy looks really good, new companies going in all the time. Everywhere has highs and lows. Right now it is in the northeast from what I hear. Tomorrow it may be Florida, who knows, but they are cycles. The cities still remain. Populations fluxuate and life goes on. I just dont see that now for the west. I look for Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona and Nevada to have better and better economies. Maybe that is seeing a "glass half full picture" but it seems the statistics are behind my picture.

[Bob Winners]

I agree with Jazzlover, to an extent. The charm and beauty of Pagosa is undisputed. But there are the winters. And it is to hell and gone from any large city. Farmington is the closest thing to a decent shopping in the neighborhood and that is 100 miles away.
The cost of gas is a large factor in Pagosa's future, as is the cost of energy in general. There are those winters again!
Employment in the county is largely related to construction. If the housing market stalls, as it appears to be doing now, there is room for a correction in both land and housing prices.
So, I don't know about crashes. And I've seen the doom and gloom of "we're running out of oil" before. But it would pay to be careful in today's market.
Oh, and the elevation around Pagosa ranges from 7000 to about 7500 feet. It is high enough to be trouble for some people, particularly the older set. Try it out for a while, before you decide to do anything permanent.