COVID-19 Governor Polis issues state-wide stay at home order

[Vision67]

Originally Posted by jwiley

It is stupid to fight for your natural rights that are being arbitrarily taken from people? Sorry but this is killing small businesses, while all the big corporation stores are packed, and there are studies out there done in Europe clearly showing that stay at home orders have little to no effect on the virus being spread. But keep calling names and ignoring the facts.

Social isolation does reduce the rate of infection. That is a fact.

However, if people won't or can't self isolate, and they go out and socialize, the rate of infection will increase. That is also a fact.

But as I said above, we cannot expect people to willingly forego income. So expect them to come out.

I just hope our medical care system can accommodate those who become infected.

[jwiley]

Originally Posted by Therblig

No, by all means take back your right to die, to infect all your family and friends as you do so and to prolong a global disaster because your goddam pet salon or body shop has been closed long enough.

Proving once again that there's no stupidity quite like the stupidity of a Lib'tarian who thinks his toes have been stepped on through special and egregious effort by Them.

(And psst? You might want to peer into the roots of your mighty freedom movement. They have ASTROTURF stamped all over them.)

Attack the person because you have no facts to back you? Typical, fact is this whole virus is killing 2.7% of the people who are actually showing severe enough symptoms to be tested.

In the last 2 weeks Stanford, USC, and New York have all done studies showing that the reported number of infected is at least 85 times lower than the real number, but keep spouting your fear mongering bull****. You and nobody else has the right to take other's rights because you are scared.

[Vision67]

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/an...entific-claims


More facts: "Michael Osterholm:

Just think about, if there's 320 million Americans, a half of that, 160 million, are very likely to get infected. And those are numbers you can decide to change however you like, but that surely is a solid number.

Of those, about 80 percent [128M] are going to have very mild or moderate illness, not seeking medical care, and, in some cases, not even know that they were infected.

The remaining 20 percent [32M], about 10 percent of those, or half [16M], will not need really major medical care, possibly doctor's offices visit; 10 percent, the remaining 10 percent will likely be hospitalized, of which about half of those, or 5 percent of the total [3M], will need intensive care hospitalization. And about one-half to 1 percent of the total will die.

You can change those numbers however you like. Put them in. Just make sure you explain how you got what you did. And if you look at one-half to 1 percent of 160 million, that's 800,000 to 1.6 million people.

You can see, we have a lot left to go before we're going to see this virus end, even with a vaccine coming down the pike."

We're now in about inning 2 of an 8 inning game.

[YoYoSpin]

I've recently come across national and state level data that looks to be the best information available regarding exactly what the impact of COVID-19 is in the USA. The data is called "Excess Deaths"...a record of all deaths, for all causes, measured by week in every state in the country, that goes back several decades. Recently, several newspapers and other outlets have published state level data, showing total deaths over time, compared to recent deaths.

One specific example is Colorado...looking at a nine week period between February 8 and April 11, the average number of Colorado deaths between 2015 and 2019 was slightly less than 800 per week. The week ending April 11, 2020 number was a little over 1,000 Colorado deaths. The difference between these two numbers is "Excess Deaths"...that is, deaths off the statistical norm, and possibly attributable to COVID-19.

Here are some recent articles on the subject:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...oll-total.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...safe-reemerge/
https://www.westword.com/news/colora...t-cdc-11701067

Here are a couple things to take into account when thinking about "Excess Deaths" analysis:
- County and State level death statistics are normally updated several times, often several months after the period in question, and almost always upward.
- Historical death rate data may be artificially high when compared to current actual data, due in part to recent stay-at-home orders, lay-offs, etc. For example...people who normally drive to work, but are now working from home (or not working at all), are not going to be in auto accidents.

[Vision67]

Magical thinking, wishes, and hope won't make this pandemic end.

In Summary:

1. Because of a longer incubation period,
more asymptomatic spread, and a higher
R0, COVID-19 appears to spread more
easily than flu.

2. A higher R0 means more people will need
to get infected and become immune
before the pandemic can end.

3. Based on the most recent flu pandemics,
this outbreak will likely last 18 to 24
months.

4. It likely won’t be halted until 60% to 70%
of the population is immune.

5. Depending on control measures and
other factors, cases may come in waves
of different heights (with high waves
signaling major impact) and in different
intervals. We present 3 possibilities.


This Pandemic future:

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/sites/def...nt-part1_0.pdf

The Future of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Lessons Learned from Pandemic Influenza

Kristine A. Moore, MD, MPH
Marc Lipsitch, DPhil
John M. Barry, MA
Michael T. Osterholm, PhD, MPH

Dr. Moore is medical director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP).

Dr. Lipsitch is the director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health.

John Barry is a professor at Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical
Medicine.

Dr. Osterholm is director of CIDRAP, University of Minnesota Regents Professor, and McKnight
Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health.

CIDRAP, founded in 2001, is a global leader in addressing public health preparedness and emerging infectious disease response. Part of the Office of the Vice President for Research (OVPR) at the University of Minnesota, CIDRAP works to prevent illness and death from targeted infectious disease threats through research and the translation of scientific information into real-world, practical applications, policies, and solutions.

For more information, visit: www.cidrap.umn.edu.

COVID-19 Viewpoint reports are made possible with support from the University of Minnesota OVPR and the Bentson Foundation.

[himain]

So what is opening tomorrow in Jefferson county?

[Mike from back east]

National map with re-opening info by state.