Further information / thoughts on Grand Junction (Denver, Redlands: for sale, real estate, crime rate)

[NW Crow]

I know about other threads (and a recent closure). I still am thinking / re-thinking GJ. Here a few things I wanted to gently post fwiw that seem worth knowing / considering to me. I am not looking to argue.

I see Grand Junction metro has grown by about 600 people per year since 2010. From 1990 - 2010 it averaged about 2400 per year.

Property crime rate in GJ itself is about double the national average. Some heightening is expected for a regional center but wish it was lower. (Paying big for best police chief you can buy would be something I'd advocate.) The surrounding area is much lower.

Colorado Mesa University's growth rate and networking / reputation with employers will be a big variable in GJ's future. If / when enrollment is 50 - 100% higher it might start to change the perception of community and actually change it further. Enrollment was growing by a couple hundred per year but it has stopped / paused. I assume it will pick back up at some point but the growth leap from 8k now into 12, 15, 20k enrollment will probably take decades. Could try for more visiting students (from front range or CA) for transferable credits.

If at some point a tech firm decided to open a satellite center of 2-5k employees that would be major and then others might follow. Not sure who might go first. Maybe modest Amazon distribution center? Google server bank? It probably won't be software or aerospace engineers. But maybe bigger satellite offices of engineering and construction firms? May or may not happen. Hasn't yet (to my knowledge).

Part of the draw for companies and people will be relative real estate prices. If they rise too fast, it will limit growth. That might be part of the story in last 10 years' slower population growth rate.


GJ isn't like some other places. Smaller, fancier or less remote from big city America. But GJ is enough like and competitive with some other places that I on & off consider for me to consider it again. Accepting what it is and isn't, might be, might not be. It is more conservative than some places I consider but less so than others. The relatively high rate of college graduates is a plus compared to some alternatives.

I haven't found an absolutely perfect in every way place. My current place is pretty strong in many ways but not perfect in every way. There will be some compromises. Which is the best set of compromises? Hard to say without final, firm weights on the many factors. Going into a new phase of life is an opportunity for change but you have to project how much you will change by choice and not. GJ for me might be more attractive as a 6-9 months of the year place than all 12, if I decided to do that for awhile or long-term. More to review / consider. Probably would live in the outskirts. Fruita or further or way further out. GJ as a resource but probably not 24/7.

[Therblig]

It's worth noting that Grand Junction is the only Colorado city of any size to lag significantly behind the economic growth curve of the last ten years... and badly so. And all the numbers, down to employment and crime, reflect that.

Numbers aren't the whole story, but GJ doesn't seem to be a great place to relocate unless you have some kind of supporting anchors or need that balances its generally depressed state.

[NW Crow]

All the net growth in last 10 years has gone into the city itself. The suburbs overall are not growing though some spots obviously are.

Palisade is down about 20 since 2010 and down about a hundred from 2000. Not much but small businesses in a place that small don't have much cushion or room for new competition.

Fruita by contrast is way way up. Probably continues, in Fruita and more into Mack & Loma.

[otowi]

I think you can look at data until you are blue in the face but it will only tell you so much. At some point you just have to decide and commit. If one expects to be happy, one probably will, regardless of most external factors. If you have not visited, though, that would be a must, imho. GJ may not be what you think from paper alone if you have not actually been there.

[brightdoglover]

I wonder how the current oil markets will affect GJ.

[NW Crow]

I have been to GJ about 8-12 times but mostly passing thru or for hikes & events. I did some more detailed looking around for a couple days once but that was awhile ago. I'll probably come up in next few months for a closer, new look when things have settled down more.

I'd assume the oil market prices will probably mostly recover within a few months but I haven't looked into it. There probably will some layoffs, maybe permanent. Some properties are likely to change hands from really cash poor to better off companies. Don't know what benefits the oil industry has gotten in the stimulus packages.

[COcheesehead]

We looked at a lot of cities in our search of retirement towns. We considered many factors and to our surprise Grand Junction topped the list.
I won’t try to sell anyone on GJ because we all have our own desires, but for us it’s a home run.
Why?
It’s in Colorado,
It has milder winters than the Front Range.
Housing is less expensive and there are still spectacular view lots, some of the best in Colorado. Check out Redlands Mesa. Unique and a great value.
Less crowded.
When open, great farm to table restaurants and food stores.
A unique in Colorado wine region. 20 + wineries that have food and music. Think brew pubs, but with wine.
Within 2 hours are Moab, Telluride, Aspen, Glenwood Springs, Dinosaur NP, Arches NP, Canyonlands NP, Black Canyon of the Gunnison NP. Crested Butte, etc.
Fun towns like Paonia, Cedar Edge, the Grand Mesa, Gateway and more.

Great downtown in GJ.

People that haven’t been here in years love to knock it as an oil town. Great, keep that thought, it helps keep RE prices down, but we love it here. PM me with any questions.

[Mike from back east]

Originally Posted by COcheesehead

... Within 2 hours are Moab, Telluride, Aspen, Glenwood Springs, Dinosaur NP, Arches NP, Canyonlands NP, Black Canyon of the Gunnison NP. Crested Butte, etc. ....

Yes, and one doesn't have to fight the I-70 traffic from Denver to get to those places.

We did the Lavender Festival tour in GJ one summer and it was nice ... eating at an open air restaurant in farm country ... and especially the winery we visited in Palisade.

[NW Crow]

Mostly positive article https://coloradosun.com/2018/10/24/g...new-residents/

[Vision67]

AN INTERESTING MARKET: Mesa County housing is a tight and pricey seller's market

https://www.gjsentinel.com/news/busi...135f1059c.html

"This home is for sale at 619 28 3/4 Road in Grand Junction. There were 357 homes sold in Mesa County in September, a 6% increase from September 2019. The median price for those sold, however, is $285,000. That’s a 12% increase from 2019.

The housing market in Mesa County isn’t the healthiest it’s ever been, but it certainly isn’t starving.

The Bray Real Estate report for September shows that there are fewer houses on the market than in past years, but those that are listed are snatched up pretty quickly, often by people moving from out of town and retirees. It also shows that people are taking advantage of 2.125% interest rates on 15-year loans and 2.625% on 30-year loans.

“Right now, middle class families can take advantage of this market and low interest rates,” said Linda Romer Todd, a broker with Associated Brokers & Consultants, Inc. “But the catch is that inventory is tight.”

The Bray Report is a snapshot of the local housing market. It’s an amalgamation of all the data from home purchases across all agencies.

There were 357 homes sold in Mesa County in September, a 6% increase from September 2019. The median price for those sold, however, is $285,000. That’s a 12% increase from 2019.

Right now, housing in Mesa County is a seller’s market, said Stewart Cruickshank, sales manager with Bray Real Estate. They want a buyer who won’t fall through and, therefore, can be more picky. And sellers often side with the more financially secure options.

“We can list any price for a house but the true value of a home is where the buyer and seller meet,” Romer Todd said.

That meeting point between the two parties is getting more expensive. In 2020, 2,934 homes have been sold in Mesa County, only 48 fewer compared to 2019. Of that number, just 510 homes were priced below $200,000.

Romer Todd and Cruickshank say more home buyers are moving to the area from large metro areas and from other states.

“The pandemic has really shown people that if they’re working from home, then they don’t need to live in big cities, they can live somewhere like Grand Junction with more outdoor activities in their backyard,” Romer Todd said. “For our retirees, Grand Junction’s health services like St. Mary’s, Community Hospital and the VA Hospital are really appealing.”

Cruickshank estimated that about 40% of Bray’s buyers in September were from out of town.

Those with more disposable income might be taking advantage of the market at the moment, but Cruickshank said the low interest rates on loans mean that even middle class families can take a chance on their dream home.

But the inventory limits the choices.

There were only 405 active listings at the end of September, a 48% drop from 781 in September 2019.

“We have a small inventory. At the moment, we could sell all of our houses on the market in less than 30 days. That’s not great,” Cruickshank said. “A listing could go up on Saturday and by Sunday evening it will have three or four offers.


“But I’d rather have that kind of market than one with a thousand homes that we can’t sell. That’s just my opinion, though.”

On the building front, Mesa County has issued 576 building permits in 2020, more than it did at any point between 2009-2017, a 4% increase from last year. Some of those, though, are pre-sold houses, meaning they were bought before they were built. In 2018, there were 642 building permits and 556 in 2019.

Multiple brokers said that most of the homes being built are going to be of the more expensive variety.

“A lot of them are in these new neighborhoods that aren’t even on Google Maps,” said Hal Heath, a broker with Metro Brokers Grand Junction.

Cruickshank said the market will always correct itself, but that this trend of expensive homes, loans at low interest rates and high demand will continue for a few years.

Because of that competition for a house, it’s important that home buyers make sure they’re pre-approved for loans and have good financial standing so that they can stand out from the crowd.

“Please, make sure to meet with a broker and mortgage lender,” Cruickshank said. “Make sure your ducks are in a row because now is the time.”"