Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Great article from the Columbus Ledger-Enquirer. Glad to hear some good economic news in these hard times.
Quote:
There are no swarms of U.S. Armor School tanks yet growling their way across the red-clay terrain at Fort Benning.
And the Kia plant in nearby West Point, Ga., has yet to crank up assembly of a single engine or chassis, let alone a complete automobile.
But the Columbus area is slowly and surely drawing closer to the point when both projects should help generate a “high-octane” economic recovery locally — one that should mean plenty of jobs for residents and boost the financial outlook for business people.
“We know BRAC and Kia are coming, so that does provide some sort of a confidence factor that’s lacking in much of the state and nation,” said Jeff Humphreys, an economist at the University of Georgia and director of the Selig Center for Economic Growth.
The Base Realignment and Closure expansion at Fort Benning is currently projected to add about 11,400 soldier and civilian jobs to the local market.
The 2.4 million-square-foot Kia plant and a collection of auto parts suppliers nestled around it will chip in nearly 10,000 more jobs. The factories are projected to open by the end of this year.
“You know you’ve got thousands of jobs coming your way,” Humphreys said. “Just be a little patient. You just have to hold on a little longer. That does a lot for confidence, I think. It softens the downturn.”
Combining military schools
The massive BRAC project, mandated by Congress in 2005, is a key driver for Columbus proper.Though the full-scale move by the U.S. Army Armor Center and School from Fort Knox, Ky., to Fort Benning is still more than a year away, the employment picture is already taking shape.
By March 9, Fort Knox workers considering a move here to join what will be called the U.S. Army Maneuver Center for Excellence will return surveys indicating which way they are leaning.
“Historically, you have about 20 percent of the work force that will make the move,” said Fort Knox spokesman Ryan Brus. “Those who do decide to make the move will be receiving a job offer.”
Those offers will be sent out May 20, Brus said, with the Kentucky civilian workers having until June 19 to make a final decision. At the same time, U.S. Army Infantry Center and School employees will be making the same decision: Do they want to transfer to a position at the Maneuver Center?
The Armor and Infantry schools are combining operations to form the center. “Everybody is going to be treated equally,” said Blanche Robinson, Fort Benning’s director of civilian personnel. “Everyone who raises their hand to say, ‘I volunteer for a position,’ are guaranteed a job at their current or equivalent pay grade. In other words, no one’s supposed to lose money out of this.”
If the traditional percentages hold true on the number of people making the move from Fort Knox, more than 500 of the estimated 800 civilian jobs that will be available at the new training center on Fort Benning will be up for grabs locally.
“It’s definitely going to be a healthy job market,” said Jay Brown, manager of the BRAC project taking place at Fort Benning.
“The Civilian Personnel Office at Fort Benning, the gaining installation, is the one that will have to put the announcement out to fill all of those vacancies,” he said.
Robinson said an official Army timeline calls for recruitment of open positions to begin in July 2010. But she also expects some jobs to be advertised before then. She doesn’t yet know when.
Construction boom
Those Maneuver Center jobs are only the tip of what will be a major expansion at a post that has long been known as the “Home of the Infantry.”
Under the BRAC process, Congress shifted military units and operations around. There were big winners and losers, with Fort Benning essentially hitting the jackpot.
Work began on the Maneuver Center in 2006, with massive construction projects now under way on training grounds and barracks. So far, $1 billion has been spent, with nearly $1 billion more in construction contracts expected to be awarded this fall.
“Right now the only construction workers on Fort Benning that are not working are the ones that don’t want to,” said Brown, noting some of the construction sites have as many as 450 workers on them during any given day.
It is estimated there could be as many as 1,500 people laboring daily on post later this year to complete barracks, classrooms, ranges, office buildings, housing and roadways.
The mission is to have the Maneuver Center up and running on all cylinders by September 2011, though additional construction will continue on post through 2016. Altogether, $3.5 billion in construction projects will be completed by then.
Increased support jobs
While the Maneuver Center and construction jobs are getting much of the attention, plenty of support work will also be available on post, Robinson said.
“We have to support that increase in personnel,” she said. “There’s going to be some growth at the hospital. There’s going to be some growth in the garrison. All of those activities out here supporting soldiers — bowling centers, the on-post hotel, child-care centers, the PX, the commissary — are going to have some growth as those people begin to transition to this area.”
And despite skepticism in the community that BRAC is going to be a major economic force, Gary Jones said it is, indeed, on the way and will have an overwhelming impact on the employment front.
“I think it’s difficult for people to visualize the growth because they can’t see it,” said Jones, senior vice president of economic development and military affairs at the Greater Columbus Chamber of Commerce. “The growth is going on inside Fort Benning right now.”
That will change in time as the uniformed soldiers, civilian government workers and contractors associated with the Maneuver Center begin to show up.
Current numbers indicate that of the 11,400 jobs being created on post, 4,700 will be soldiers, nearly 1,900 government civilians and 4,800 contract employees.That does not include nearly 17,000 more spouses and children of those payroll employees, for a total population increase of about 28,000 people.
“As a general rule, the on-post housing inventory is for Fort Benning’s missions today,” said Brown, pointing out that key personnel assigned to the Armor School will receive housing on the installation. “But in aggregate all of that growth coming in will have to be housed by the off-post community.”
Residential housing, schools and medical facilities all are part of the equation when preparing for the wave of people coming to Columbus over the next 30 months, he said.
The timeline calls for soldiers and civilians to begin moving here in March 2010, about a year away. The pace will be deliberate, with the largest movement expected to begin in March 2011.
“It will be about a 16- to 18-month process,” said Brus at Fort Knox. “It’s probably going to be more of a trickling-in effect, and that’s by design. That way all of the missions can still be performed on time and to standard. There basically can’t be any degradation in training as we make this move.”
Other factors
The Fort Benning employment numbers won’t be the only impact on the metro area, which includes Columbus, Phenix City and Harris County.
The added population will bring new businesses to the area, everything from restaurants and retail stores to plumbers and dry cleaners.
A regional growth management study is under way to determine the potential economic impact on the area, Jones said. The study, expected to be completed in April, will provide a 20-year outlook for cities and counties in the surrounding area.
“I think it’s going to show that the impact is going to be measured in the hundreds of millions,” said Jones, who believes this area is pushing toward becoming an “economic oasis” in a sea of recession.
He points to estimates by the Selig Center for Economic Development, which indicate that spinoff support business from BRAC and Kia could generate as many as 4,000 jobs locally.
Selig Center economist Humphreys said he sees Columbus recovering from the current recession in a “high octane fuel” kind of way.
The city will suffer with the rest of the state and nation over the next year or so. But then as soldiers and civilian workers begin to materialize, the economy will take off and likely become a magnet for job seekers.
“I think you’re definitely going to import talent from across the state and region,” Humphrey said.
“People from Columbus for decades have been coming into Atlanta,” he said. “I expect that we’ll see the reverse with the Kia jobs and to some extent with the expansion of the defense industry in Columbus.”
Great article from the Columbus Ledger-Enquirer. Glad to hear some good economic news in these hard times.
Another SELIG prediction..rofl....Chris your posts are shooting blanks.
More estimates and possibilities.
Seems funny that Humphries (and Chris) never mention the hardship BRAC will put upon city govt since the feds and state are leaving them high and dry as well as over 15,000 people out of work according to local DOL director....15k-4k(if even possible) still leaves 11k or more between now and then not to mention BRAC wives,our local high school and college grads etc looking for a job that pays a LIVING WAGE.....
Humphries is bound to get lucky and get one right eventually.
Here are the real facts.......(and these are during what ATLCOL1 calls the boom years...)
Columbus GA household income has declined from the inflation-adjusted 2000 income levels. The income level has decreased to $33,453, which amounts to a 17.2 percent decline. The Columbus, GA-AL MSA, when comparing total percent of decline, ranks 4 of 6 metro area in percent of decline for median household income in the State of Georgia. Columbus ranks 15 of 233 metro area when comparing the decline in median income level for the United States.
When compared to other Metro Areas throughout the United States, the Columbus metro area had a relatively low median household income of $40,379 (2005 Dollars). The income level is 23 percent lower than the median in State of Georgia of $49,647 and the median is 21.7 percent lower than the median household income level in the US of $49,133.
As the median income level saw a decline from 2000 to 2005 in the Columbus, GA-AL metro area, the Race/Ethnicity category that saw the sharpest decline in median household income was the Hispanic category. This group felt a decline of 43.3 percent from 2000 to 2005. The American Indian and Alaska Native Race/Ethnicity category has been least effected by the income level decline in Columbus, undergoing a 2 percent increase in household income, since the reported levels in 2000.
Evaluated with other MSAs across the nation, the Columbus metro area can be considered to have a relatively high rate of poverty among its population, accounting a rate of 15.6 percent with a family income under the 1999 poverty level. The Black or African American race/ethnicity population category, holds the highest rate of poverty with 24.6 percent of the people in 2000 living in poverty. The population that is aged Under 5 years have the most percent of people living in poverty in Columbus, having 24 percent of the population in this age category living in poverty.
The poverty rate in the Columbus, GA-AL Metro has increased by 3.8 percent since the amount published in 2000, moving from 15.6 percent to 19.4 percent.
Datasource: U.S. Bureau of the Census.
Last edited by Columbusattorney; 03-08-2009 at 12:45 PM..
I read this in the no-news newspaper yesterday. I won't dispute that BRAC and the new KIA plant will benefit Columbus in some way but create an economic oasis? Highly doubtful, IMO. Sounds like a press release that the Ledger turned into an article to me. I thought it was funny that right below that article, they had an article about the declining economy.
Speedy Recovery for Columbus: Georgia Trend Magazine
Jeffrey Humphreys published March 2009
Quote:
Although the Columbus area economy will be in recession through mid-2009, the downturn is mild, and the recovery will be vigorous.
The expansion at Fort Benning is the main factor underpinning my optimism; but I am counting on the new Kia plant and its suppliers to provide a boost to the regional economy. Additionally, home prices are holding up better here than in much of the nation, and the Valley Partnership reported 12 expansions or project announcements in 2008.
Collectively, those 12 projects are expected to generate nearly 2,000 jobs. That’s more than 200 jobs higher than the average of the last 20 years.
The $1.2 billion Kia auto assembly plant is expected to employ between 2,500 and 2,800 workers, many of whom will live or shop in the Columbus region, and the multiplier effects will be unusually large.
A simulation based on the most conservative estimate of job numbers shows an employment impact of 13,700 jobs in Georgia. That implies that each job at the Kia plant will support 4.5 jobs outside the plant. Thus far, major suppliers alone have announced 3,700 jobs at sites in Georgia, well above the estimates made at the time of the initial announcement.
Of course, the local economic impacts associated with the Kia plant will not be large until late 2009 or 2010. Until the plant is actually up and running, spending is mostly related to engineering, planning, site preparation and construction.
When the plant and its local suppliers begin actual production, the amount of money pumped directly into the regional economy via permanent payrolls and contracts with local firms will rise dramatically.
Some continue to question whether or not Georgia overpaid for the Kia plant, but I believe we struck a great deal. The total cost of the incentives will be about $400 million, or about $160,000 per job at the plant itself.
At the time the deal was closed, Kia had narrowed its choice to either Georgia or Mississippi. Mississippi’s top offer was $760 million in state and local incentives, or about $300,000 per job. In July, Tennessee landed a VW plant with an incentive package of $577 million for some 2,000 jobs, or $290,000 per job. These two offers are higher than the $180,000 per job incentive package that landed a Toyota Plant near Tupelo, Miss., in 2008. It’s clear that Georgia beat the going rate.
Another way to look at it is to examine how long it will take for the incremental tax revenues attributable to the Kia plant to offset the tax breaks and other incentives that were granted – the payback period.
I ran a simulation based on 2,500 jobs. The result was a net tax impact of $110 million per year. So, based on an incentive package of $399 million, it will take only three years and eight months for the net increase in state and local government revenues to “pay” for the incentives granted. That’s a short payback period. We got a good deal.
Now, let’s look at growth stemming from the 2005 Base Realignment and Closure Commission (BRAC) decisions affecting Fort Benning. The military sector’s expanding economic impact is the key reason I expect vigorous economic growth in Columbus late in 2009.
According to the U.S. Army, the number of military personnel, civilians and contractors working at the base will grow by about 11,000. The multiplier effects associated with spending by people who land these new jobs should create at least 6,000 more jobs in the off-base economy. So over the next four years, Fort Benning’s growth will generate 17,000 jobs.
Columbus has yet to feel very much of the economic impact of the planned expansions at Fort Benning. The big economic push associated with the growth will not really begin until late 2009 or early 2010.
The acceleration will occur as the armor school begins to pre-position and moves in; but the move will not be completed until September 2011. The multiplier effects associated with this growth probably will not peak until mid-2012; so, the major push to the region’s economy will take place between late 2009 and mid-2012.
Coming years sound amazing for the Columbus region.
Speedy Recovery for Columbus: Georgia Trend Magazine
Jeffrey Humphreys published March 2009
Coming years sound amazing for the Columbus region.
Looks like the same news as the last 3 years.....none of which came to pass.
You still have not responded to the poverty issue in Columbus.
Please respond and stay on topic.
I read this in the no-news newspaper yesterday. I won't dispute that BRAC and the new KIA plant will benefit Columbus in some way but create an economic oasis? Highly doubtful, IMO. Sounds like a press release that the Ledger turned into an article to me. I thought it was funny that right below that article, they had an article about the declining economy.
I agree....
He just listed the same things over and over and never responds to documented issues.
Strange.
First let's not be soooo negative about everything. I think it's great about BRAC and KIA. I think it will do some good for the area. BRAC I will admit I'm in a wait and see mode. Who knows? Maybe I'll come back to Ctown. I miss home but like it up here (20 miles outside DC).
So I'm going to be optimistic. I may not live there anymore but I still want my hometown to do well.
The poverty issue in Columbus? Well there's poverty everywhere. What exactly about the poverty? I know the crime in my old neighborhood has gone through the roof but you know you can clean up one area and the mess will find a new home. Now what I'm curious about is how things are to go with the apartments they're building to replace Baker Village. Will the new apartments have new nice people or are the same old folks that made it so bad to begin with going to move right back in?
Also what will Ashley Station look like in a few years? I don't see that many middle class professionals moving there and paying fair market value even though it's supposed to be a mixed income community. But if enough newcomers that don't know anything about it being Peabody move maybe. I mean look at downtown when they first built those lofts on Broadway I laughed and still I don't know anyone who actually grew up in Columbus that lives there or is even considering living there.
But back to the topic yeah I think it's great. We'll have to wait and see how it all pans out.
Hey Columbusattorney, ok overall income for Columbus declined but for people all over the country has declined that's not just a Columbus thing. Overall Columbus used to have a much lower cost of living that's just the way of the day dude.
First let's not be soooo negative about everything. I think it's great about BRAC and KIA. I think it will do some good for the area. BRAC I will admit I'm in a wait and see mode. Who knows? Maybe I'll come back to Ctown. I miss home but like it up here (20 miles outside DC).
So I'm going to be optimistic. I may not live there anymore but I still want my hometown to do well.
The poverty issue in Columbus? Well there's poverty everywhere. What exactly about the poverty? I know the crime in my old neighborhood has gone through the roof but you know you can clean up one area and the mess will find a new home. Now what I'm curious about is how things are to go with the apartments they're building to replace Baker Village. Will the new apartments have new nice people or are the same old folks that made it so bad to begin with going to move right back in?
Also what will Ashley Station look like in a few years? I don't see that many middle class professionals moving there and paying fair market value even though it's supposed to be a mixed income community. But if enough newcomers that don't know anything about it being Peabody move maybe. I mean look at downtown when they first built those lofts on Broadway I laughed and still I don't know anyone who actually grew up in Columbus that lives there or is even considering living there.
But back to the topic yeah I think it's great. We'll have to wait and see how it all pans out.
Hey Columbusattorney, ok overall income for Columbus declined but for people all over the country has declined that's not just a Columbus thing. Overall Columbus used to have a much lower cost of living that's just the way of the day dude.
We are talking about the last 8 years and not just recent economic conditions unfortunately....
No booming city has a near 24 percent poverty level.
Twenty four percent poverty? The US Census data for 2007 says its 18.6%. I believe I have posted this link before with US Census data for 2007, but I could be wrong. Here it is for those who insists on posting data from 2005 and ranting and raving about nothing. Muscogee County QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau
While you are at it, take a gander at some of the other counties with medium size cities. Such as Richmond, Bibb, Clarke and Chatham. Have fun.
By the way, please give me the names of other medium size cities in GA that has the following for its youth.
Hockey Teams
Swimming teams
Lacrosse (High school)
Ice Skating Rink (to be built this year)
BMX (Track)
Biking/Walking trail (building now)
This is in addition to the traditional football, baseball, softball, basketball, soccer, day camps, weekly camps and educational camps...
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
The US Census data for 2007 says its 18.6%. I believe I have posted this link before with US Census data for 2007, but I could be wrong. Here it is for those who insists on posting data from 2005 and ranting and raving about nothing. 
