Will Columbus, OH surpass Indianapolis, IN in population in the next 20 years? (Marion: 2015, universities)

[Natural510]

There's a (very interesting) picture on the front page of today's Wikipedia, highlighting the country as it was in 1862:
Fileiagram of the Federal Government and American Union edit.jpg - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Among other things, it lists the population of the country's top 40 or so cities at the time. Bringing up the rear? Dayton 20,000 Indianapolis 18,612 Columbus 18,555.
Also Indy was the first to 100,000 (1890) and the first to 700,000 (1970). Like CC said, in the end it doesn't describe the quality of a city, but I don't see how trends will suddenly buck history in this regard unless there's a serious change in Indy's economy.

[jbcmh81]

Originally Posted by Natural510

There's a (very interesting) picture on the front page of today's Wikipedia, highlighting the country as it was in 1862:
Fileiagram of the Federal Government and American Union edit.jpg - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Among other things, it lists the population of the country's top 40 or so cities at the time. Bringing up the rear? Dayton 20,000 Indianapolis 18,612 Columbus 18,555.
Also Indy was the first to 100,000 (1890) and the first to 700,000 (1970). Like CC said, in the end it doesn't describe the quality of a city, but I don't see how trends will suddenly buck history in this regard unless there's a serious change in Indy's economy.

The only reason Indianapols reached 700K first is because of the city-county merger, which put it a couple hundred thousand ahead.

Here is the population difference since 1950.

1950: 51,272
1960, 4,942
1970: 204,947
1980: 135,936
1990: 98,417
2000: 70,456
2010: 42,412

You can see that Columbus likely would've passed Indy sometime in the 1960s before the merger, and has been making the up large deficit since then. Obviously things changed since the 19th century.

[Natural510]

Originally Posted by jbcmh81

The only reason Indianapols reached 700K first is because of the city-county merger, which put it a couple hundred thousand ahead.

Here is the population difference since 1950.

1950: 51,272
1960, 4,942
1970: 204,947
1980: 135,936
1990: 98,417
2000: 70,456
2010: 42,412

You can see that Columbus likely would've passed Indy sometime in the 1960s before the merger, and has been making the up large deficit since then. Obviously things changed since the 19th century.

How much land has Columbus acquired since the 1950s?

[jbcmh81]

Originally Posted by Natural510

How much land has Columbus acquired since the 1950s?

About 150 square miles less than Indy has.

[SuperC35]

Originally Posted by gwillyfromphilly

Columbus, OH is not that far behind Indianapolis, IN in population. Based on the 2010 census Indianapolis had a population 820,445, while Columbus had a population 787,033. That is only a 33,412 population difference. From 2000-2010 Columbus had a growth rate was 10.6% while Indianapolis had a growth rate of 6.1%. Columbus has almost twice the growth rate of Indianapolis. With that said do you think Columbus will surpass Indianapolis in population in the 20 years and become the 2nd largest city in the Midwest?

And according to Metro population Columbus is already bigger than Indianapolis

[streetcreed]

Originally Posted by jbcmh81

Not sure why these areas would necessarily decline. What would be the driving force there? Suburbanization/annexation is what drove the urban decline, and if that's not as strong a force or is reversed, that would argue the exact opposite. Also, any decline and population loss that might occur in these areas is probably going to be made up by urban areas that are now growing. Consider as well that the land that Columbus would've annexed on the outskirts of the city is either rural/farm or low-density development, meaning it wouldn't be adding tens of thousands of people that way, anyway. Just not seeing it, man.

These areas already are, and have been declining, its not an if. I wish they weren't but the 50s-70s suburban/post 1950 new columbus city limits areas have been in decline for years. They are loosing population. Also, many of the urban areas that are lower income have been loosing population (almost the entire NE side, east side, and west sides)

Then as other areas gentrify they tend to still loose population (as homes that once had a 4-5 person low income family living in them now have a single person or couple without kids)

You can look at Columbus 2010 census population maps and see these trends. Only the high street corridor/downtown gained population since 2000 (in the central city pre 1950 land area).

However, this is also occuring in all cities in the us and Indianapolis.

I do think the urban growth seen in Columbus will continue and speed up even more (in the coming years) But the question is will this be enough to greatly make up for the population loss areas. Especially with a limited amount of rural land left in the city limits still not developed. Where in Indy they have a lot more land to develop (the whole county being included)

[jbcmh81]

Originally Posted by streetcreed

These areas already are, and have been declining, its not an if. I wish they weren't but the 50s-70s suburban/post 1950 new columbus city limits areas have been in decline for years. They are loosing population. Also, many of the urban areas that are lower income have been loosing population (almost the entire NE side, east side, and west sides)

Then as other areas gentrify they tend to still loose population (as homes that once had a 4-5 person low income family living in them now have a single person or couple without kids)

You can look at Columbus 2010 census population maps and see these trends. Only the high street corridor/downtown gained population since 2000 (in the central city pre 1950 land area).

However, this is also occuring in all cities in the us and Indianapolis.

I do think the urban growth seen in Columbus will continue and speed up even more (in the coming years) But the question is will this be enough to greatly make up for the population loss areas. Especially with a limited amount of rural land left in the city limits still not developed. Where in Indy they have a lot more land to develop (the whole county being included)

Can you give some examples of the neighborhoods you're referencing?

If you look at this growth map of Columbus 1990-2000, it's pretty obvious that the worst declines occurred inside 270, but more specifically, the old urban core. Interactive map: 30 years of census data - The Washington Post Only a handful of the tracts within then 1950 boundaries were growing, and only the northern part of Downtown.

Fastforward to the 2000-2010 period Interactive map: 30 years of census data - The Washington Post and again, most of the losses are still within the older boundaries, but there is also a lot more growth there as well. If anything, it looks like growth made a lurch toward the center in all directions, not just building up near Downtown.

So while I get your point, I don't think it's as predictable as it once was. These older suburbs that you're talking about may see decline for awhile, but one has to wonder how long that would last. If the core is recovering (and it looks like it is), and if there is a strong urban movemen (and there is one now), I can see, eventually, more and more of these older neighborhoods becoming at least somewhat more popular again. Anything within I-270 is fair game for revitalization/densification over the next few decades, so while some areas might see decline currently, the overall health of the core is getting stronger and the growth appears to be spreading. If the growth is strong enough there, I could see it starting to make up for any losses further out in the kinds of neighborhoods you're talking about. It will certainly be interesting to watch, and I'm really looking forward to the upcoming population estimates for 2012 to see if trends are continuing.

[gwillyfromphilly]

Originally Posted by SuperC35

And according to Metro population Columbus is already bigger than Indianapolis

What about CSA's or urban areas?

[msamhunter]

Originally Posted by gwillyfromphilly

What about CSA's or urban areas?

Indianapolis CSA slightly larger than CBus CSA as well as slightly larger urban area. An entire county of direct Indianapolis suburbs petitioned to be its own MSA and was granted which is why CBus MSA is slightly larger.

[chet_kinkaid]

columbus added 224k to the msa between 2000 and 2010,indy 231k,the decade beofre columbus added @ 10 k more than indy.these cities are so similar its silly!columbus grew faster from 2005 -2010...they will always be simmilar in population at least metro or msa,with columbus at @1.9 now and indy approching 1.8 mill.