Will the housing market change over the next few years? (Columbus: real estate market, rental) - Ohio (OH) - City-Data Forum

no1particular · 07-31-2016, 04:37 PM

Husband and I just moved here, are currently renting in Dublin. In the next couple years we'd like to purchase a house, but are concerned about when to time it. The rates right now are good, but the prices of houses in Franklin county are pretty high. We definitely need a year to save up, but we are worried that by the time we are ready to put down 20% to buy, the rates and the prices will skyrocket. Is there anything that would suggest a downward trend in housing prices in the next 3-4 years? Should we purchase sooner and pay PMI?

ZnGuy · 07-31-2016, 06:15 PM

IMO we will see a correction by that time. There are a lot of cities where real estate market on fire, ridiculous amount of building down here and still big shortage in 500-600k range.. I guess it does help that tens of thousands people /yr continue to move here.

Jbeechuk · 07-31-2016, 09:44 PM

Most likely, a recession/market correction will occur in the next year or 2. Historically it is time. Home prices have risen dramatically over the past 3 years of so.

Rosebush1 · 08-01-2016, 07:27 AM

The housing market will cool off, historically it always does.
I feel your angst.
Have you considered asking both sets of parents to help? Lots of young couples would not have a house without family help. We were able to advance inheritance money to our kids.
You don't want the help to be in the form of a loan as lenders will include this in your debt ratio.
While you are saving don't buy or lease new cars. Cars depreciate as soon as they are driven off the lot. Ask family members to consider cash gifts at Christmas. Do whatever you can do to raise cash, even if you don't buy now.

The best of luck to you.

jbcmh81 · 08-01-2016, 09:06 AM

There is no bubble in Columbus, if that's the suggestion. The issue there is not overbuilding, but underbuilding. Historically few houses are on the market while the level of new construction continues to be well behind the demand. As long as the development pace stays this way, prices will probably continue to go up for the foreseeable future. The Dispatch had an article the other day that housing between $150K-$300K was selling in as little as 10 days on average in the Columbus market. That is incredibly fast.

I think your best bet is to look in older neighborhoods, not new construction. This may not be to your tastes, but availability would be higher there and prices wouldn't be as high. Even in those neighborhoods though, you are seeing rapid changes. The Near South Side of Columbus for example, which hasn't been a particularly nice area in a long time, is seeing its housing vacancy rates plummet. I remember reading that vacancy rates had dropped by 50% in just the last few years. Obviously great news for these areas, but it also means that the affordability may not last there, either. Columbus needs to at least double its housing construction, and even then it would still be well below what it was before the recession.

no1particular · 08-01-2016, 10:52 AM

All great insight, thanks! Do you think that areas such as Marysville and Delaware will start growing to accommodate the demand? We considered purchasing out there but are really drawn to the Hilliard and Dublin school systems.

jbcmh81 · 08-01-2016, 01:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by no1particular

All great insight, thanks! Do you think that areas such as Marysville and Delaware will start growing to accommodate the demand? We considered purchasing out there but are really drawn to the Hilliard and Dublin school systems.

They are growing, but consider that Columbus grew faster than all other 99 communities in the metro combined. That means that whatever is getting built out there will still leave you with somewhat limited choices just because there is going to be a lot less of it. Columbus and its immediate suburbs within Franklin County are still your best bet to find what you're wanting.

Cbus76 · 08-01-2016, 02:12 PM

Unlike many of the coastal cities (east and west coasts), Columbus generally does not experience booms and busts when it comes to the housing market. I don't think there will be a significant downward trend in housing prices, but as others have alluded to, prices shouldn't spike too much either, as there has been quite a bit of appreciation in the last few years. Columbus is a bit different than some of its nearby peers in that the metro area continues to see quite a bit of population growth. As a result of the population growth, and other factors like empty nesters selling their McMansions and Millenials not ready to buy yet, the rental market has gotten tight and the prices reflect that, but a lot of inventory is going up both in the city and the burbs, so rents may cool off at some point too.

Of the two, Hilliard is going to be the more affordable suburb, and if the market cools, there will be some buys out there. Not sure if you considered Westerville, as it has some similar price points and the school district is not too dissimilar to Hilliard.

no1particular · 08-01-2016, 03:34 PM

Hilliard seems to keep coming up as a good place based on schools, housing, and commute time. Curious as to why its housing prices are better compared to Dublin/Worthington even though the schools/taxes are comparable.

Rosebush1 · 08-01-2016, 03:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by no1particular

All great insight, thanks! Do you think that areas such as Marysville and Delaware will start growing to accommodate the demand? We considered purchasing out there but are really drawn to the Hilliard and Dublin school systems.

I'm not a fan of Delaware County and I know little about Marysville. Focus on Hilliard and Dublin if those communities appeal to you. Both have a range of housing prices with Hilliard being a little less expensive. You are doing the right thing by renting in Dublin, trying it out as a place to eventually buy a home. I really like Dublin.