[Cambium]

Earl has become a Beast!! The Eyewall is unbelievable and that pressure drop in 2 hours is sick!! People in North Carolina need to get out!!!

The 2 Lines represent a 200 mile distance from point to point...that should give you an idea that even if Earl stays off shore..the hurricane winds now extend to 120 miles.

[Cambium]

Hurricanes need 80 degree water temp to keep its strength otherwise it gets weak...Water temps are 80 degrees up until Atlantic City!! Then get into the 70's up here. So yes, its "possible" it stays a Cat3 up till Jersey/

Notice how some forecasted tracks are within that 200 mile range. Hurricane force winds extend 120 miles.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Hurricanes need 80 degree water temp to keep its strength otherwise it gets weak...Water temps are 80 degrees up until Atlantic City!! Then get into the 70's up here. So yes, its "possible" it stays a Cat3 up till Jersey/

Notice how some forecasted tracks are within that 200 mile range. Hurricane force winds extend 120 miles.

…saw another ESSA/NOAA transmission on line: United States Air Force NOAA Hurricane Hunters reported 200 – mph wind gusts in the EYE of Hurricane Earl – and estimated waves of 60 feet. CNN Twitter seems to have it too:

Twitter / CNN Weather Center: #Earl continues to intensi ...

See what teasing the gods will do?

[CTbrooktrout]

Joe Bastardi from Accuweather thinks the models have a too far east bias. A good example is when 3 days out it looks like what could be a major winter storm is out to sea. Then 24hrs before the event happens we get a direct hit. The westward correction is a well known defect of many models. I think that's why many forecasters are saying "there's still a chance it could track closer." Because they've been burned by the models during the winter. Earl could yet go farther east than anyone expects but I'm looking for a westward correction and a much closer track than what's currently expected; mostly b/c of history.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by CTbrooktrout

Joe Bastardi from Accuweather thinks the models have a too far east bias. A good example is when 3 days out it looks like what could be a major winter storm is out to sea. Then 24hrs before the event happens we get a direct hit. The westward correction is a well known defect of many models. I think that's why many forecasters are saying "there's still a chance it could track closer." Because they've been burned by the models during the winter. Earl could yet go farther east than anyone expects but I'm looking for a westward correction and a much closer track than what's currently expected; mostly b/c of history.

Its going out to sea

[kidyankee764]

Originally Posted by jp03

Its going out to sea

I don't disagree with you, but why has every single one of your posts been against what meteorologists have been saying? What are your credentials?

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by jp03

Its going out to sea

You might find this interesting. Especially page 6 - (William Bradfords Account) and page 8.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/12Tides.pdf


.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

You might find this interesting. Especially page 6 - (William Bradfords Account) and page 8.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/12Tides.pdf


.

yea yea yea...listen this is a very interesting storm and with a different scenario the NE would be in great danger..but not this time..sorry

[LINative]

Originally Posted by jp03

This is NOT 1938.....geez. In 1938 they had NO models, no radar, no nothing....not a very valid comparison. This storm was earmarked to "out to sea"

So because its not 1938....hurricanes can not strike us again?

[Cambium]

EARL IS STRONGER! ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A CAT 5 JUST 600 MILES FROM NORTH CAROLINA! 145MPH WINDS, 928 PRESSURE. MOVING NNW AT 18MPH