[Cambium]

Mt Holly Issues Winter Advisory. I wonder if Upton will too or Albany for Litchfield. This is nuts.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Mt Holly Issues Winter Advisory. I wonder if Upton will too or Albany for Litchfield. This is nuts.

A lot of confusion between them I think.....Though it looks like Mt. Holly joined Upton in the High Wind Warning, putting it on the Jersey shore (part of which they're actually evacuating BTW).

Anyway, Upton has issued a Winter Weather Advisory too, but only for Orange County, NY and for the western half of Passaic County, NJ. I don't see the Advisory on Mt. Holly's maps yet, or did you think the little slice of Jersey showing the advisory was Mt. Holly territory? (It actually is Upton's.....I know it gets really confusing because many parts of the NJ piece of the "tri-state" are actually assigned to Mt. Holly (the "Philly office")) when they're still closer to us.

[Cambium]

The map refreshed as I was looking at it and a bunch of purples came up.

Winter Weather Advisory
CA DE MD NC NJ NV NY PA

[gmdealerguy]

Im going with this info:
Good news for coast: Nor'easter to weaken

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by gmdealerguy

Im going with this info:
Good news for coast: Nor'easter to weaken

That was their original thought this morning (and my hope) but they've gone back to the "closer to the coast" scenario.

This Power Point from Mt. Holly describes a lot of their uncertainty. Interesting "snow risk zone" map......if blue means more and green less it seems they think CT is in a high risk for accumulating snow:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing...t_briefing.pdf

Originally Posted by Cambium

The map refreshed as I was looking at it and a bunch of purples came up.

Winter Weather Advisory
CA DE MD NC NJ NV NY PA

I see now, it consists of their whole forecast region, including all of metro Philly except for coastal southern NJ. Looking at the "local forecasts" looks like they're thinking 1-2" of snow with sleet on top of it.

[gmdealerguy]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

That was their original thought this morning (and my hope) but they've gone back to the "closer to the coast" scenario.

.

Crap.....it said updated at 1:56 pm......I got excited........

[Blazah1080]

Which map! Let it snow!

[Cambium]

Extreme Short term models like the RGEM, SREF, HRRR, WRF are painting more moisture in the picture AND.... GET THIS.... a warm core!!!

Has a Nor'Easter ever turned into a Tropical System???

This is one of those just throw your hands and paper in the air, weather is on its own. LOL

[wavehunter007]

I don’t know if it is the trend west – but now NWS Upton has taken the chance for even a wet mix of snow/rain out of the forecast for Wednesday – now they saw all rain. At least for us in southern and coastal CT:

Point Forecast: New Haven CT
3:33 pm EST Nov 6, 2012:

Tonight Increasing clouds, with a low around 33. Light and variable wind becoming northeast 10 to 15 mph in the evening.

Wednesday Rain, mainly after noon. High near 43. Breezy, with a north wind 21 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Wednesday Night Rain before 10pm, then rain and snow. Low around 35. Windy, with a north wind 24 to 29 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Thursday Rain and snow showers likely, becoming all rain after 8am. Cloudy, with a high near 44. Breezy, with a north wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday Night A slight chance of showers before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Breezy, with a northwest wind 16 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Friday Sunny, with a high near 55.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

I don’t know if it is the trend west – but now NWS Upton has taken the chance for even a wet mix of snow/rain out of the forecast for Wednesday – now they saw all rain. At least for us in southern and coastal CT:

Point Forecast: New Haven CT
3:33 pm EST Nov 6, 2012:

Tonight Increasing clouds, with a low around 33. Light and variable wind becoming northeast 10 to 15 mph in the evening.

Wednesday Rain, mainly after noon. High near 43. Breezy, with a north wind 21 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Wednesday Night Rain before 10pm, then rain and snow. Low around 35. Windy, with a north wind 24 to 29 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Thursday Rain and snow showers likely, becoming all rain after 8am. Cloudy, with a high near 44. Breezy, with a north wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday Night A slight chance of showers before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Breezy, with a northwest wind 16 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Friday Sunny, with a high near 55.

NWS has stayed with a warmer forecast...Weather channel colder.. what a crazy setup. So difficult to pinpoint. I do think this time of year its still going to be very hard to get all snow unless its a setup well off the coast which will not bring as much precip.