[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Joepg

I hear it will be in the 50's by Wednesday.. Yayyy...!

Yup. While it will feel like Spring, I doubt we'll see 60 anywhere though.

Here's Wednesdays afternoon temps from GFS.
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[Cambium]

Upton regarding Mondays storm sounds unsure if the warm front lifts into the area. Just means they arent sure about Tuesdays temps because the warm front might not make it up this way. WAA = Warm Air Avection which is when warm air moves into the area.

Snow for everyone to start, after lunchtime, then the changeover happens for the evening commute give or take an hour or so.. Very light stuff but I fear for the folks who arent prepared to see ice as they are driving.

SNOW AT ALL LOCATIONS AT THE ONSET...BUT INCREASING WAA WILL CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTN AND EVE. UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT BEFORE A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OCCURS.

ALTHOUGH P-TYPE IS ONE CHALLENGING PART OF THE FORECAST...THE QUESTION OF WHETHER THE WARM FRONT IS ABLE TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA REMAINS. THE PARENT LOW PRES SYSTEM ORIGINATES IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...W OF THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH TYPICALLY IS NOT ABLE TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH WITHOUT A STRONG SLY FLOW TO PUSH IT. HOWEVER...IT MAY LIFT THROUGH AS THE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/NORTHERN MID- ATLANTIC STATES. IT COULD ALSO STALL RIGHT OVER THE AREA. BOTTOM LINE...THERE`S SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR N THE FRONT IS ABLE TO GET WHICH WILL AFFECT HIGHS ON TUE.

WE LOSE ICE IN THE CLOUD MON NIGHT...AND SUBSEQUENTLY WILL LOSE ANY CHANCE FOR SNOW. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR RAIN/FZRA/SLEET. A TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OCCURS ON TUE AND CONTINUES THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRES DEPARTS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL AND EXPECT LOWS MON NIGHT TO OCCUR EARLY WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. HIGH BUST POTENTIAL TUE WITH UNCERTAINTY IN FRONTAL LOCATION

[Cambium]

5th night in a row into the single digits for me.

Current temps

[7 Wishes]

I can see the uncertainty in the NWS forecast. It now seems to show a relatively early changeover to plain rain for NYC and southern Westchester (about 3pm or so), but keeps it sleet and ice until at least dark north of that as well as for all of CT, even the coast.

Here's a graphic I found (not from the NWS but from channel 4 NYC):



Second pic IS from NWS (the Boston office):

[Cambium]

Nice graphics, thanks!

Monday morning commute WILL BE FINE. Its the afternoon and evening. Spread the word today to give a heads up!

There might actually be bursts of snow in the afternoon right before the changeover to ice.

Bring a thermometer with you... Remember... if it looks like rain and the temperature outside is 32 or less, its probably ice falling and freezing on contact!

[7 Wishes]

I also want to note for those who commute to NYC that you may actually see PLAIN RAIN by your evening commute but as you get home (if you're driving) or when you get home (if you take Metro North and drive home from the station) you may still find a mess both on the ground and in terms of actual weather and not to get fooled as you leave work.

BTW, Wednesday's record high at Bridgeport/Sikorsky is "only" 57 (set in 2006), perhaps a chance it gets broken?

[Cambium]

For those wondering... Generally speaking, We havent had this long stretch of cold temps in a while.

In fact, doing some research back to December 2007.

Windsor Locks has had 6 days in a row below freezing, today would of made 7 but they hit 32 so Im not counting it.. Using 3 day or more stretches staying below 32 here's how it looks.



3 Jan 2-4, 2008
3 Jan 20-22, 2008
3 Feb 10-12, 2008
3 Dec 31-Jan2,2009
7 Jan 12-18, 2009
7 Jan 21-27, 2009
4 Feb 4-7, 2009
5 Jan 9-13, 2010
3 Jan 29-31, 2010
3 Feb 5-7, 2010
4 Dec 14-17, 2010
3 Jan 13-15, 2011
5 Jan 22-26, 2011
3 Jan 30-Feb1, 2011
5 Feb 8-12, 2011
3 Feb 22-24, 2011
6 Jan 21-26 , 2013

January 2009 was a COLD month so we didnt beat or tie those 7 day stretches. But if you notice, there's not many times we had 6 days in a row in the past 5 winters.

[Cambium]

Millions of people on the roads. Just be lucky you're here to see this and have the awareness.
Albany and Upton put out advisories. Not Boston yet.

This is for Litchfield.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WINTER WEATHER...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10
AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND
SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MONDAY
MORNING. SNOW WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ENDING AS FREEZING DRIZZLE OR
DRIZZLE TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

Fairfield, New Haven, New London and Middlesex

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 1 INCH...ALONG WITH A
COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE.

[7 Wishes]

I noticed that they didn't put one up for coastal CT and when I click on reports they are saying change to plain rain by 4pm there (just like they are saying for NYC and Westchester south of 287. But I assume that is REALLY coastal (like south of Merritt, maybe even just south of 95).

[Cambium]

Wednesday Storm: How this for a January flip? Upton saying Thunder and High winds

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN OCCURRING LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY FOR WESTERN ZONES AND TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. GFS HAS RAIN EXITING EASTERN ZONES BY EARLY MORNING WITH 12Z ECMWF HOLDING ON A BIT LONGER. THERE ARE TWO OTHER POTENTIAL ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM...THUNDER AND HIGH WINDS.

AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A WIND ADVISORY WILL NEEDED FOR AT LEAST LONG ISLAND/THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN CT. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT IF THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT AND THE INVERSION THAT IS FORECAST IS A LITTLE WEAKER THEN CURRENTLY SHOWN...A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

THUNDER IS ANOTHER POSSIBILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE COLD FRONT HAS STRONG LIFT...SOME INSTABILITY...GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND STRONGSHEAR. THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THEY MIX DOWN SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS.