[htfdcolt]

Here in Hartford, it "feels" much more like a normal winter (coming after last year's "scorcher"), although for sure the actual days of snowcover have been short-lived, and it sure seems like we're "wasting" a lot of cold air with a lack of moisture!

[Brian26]

Very tricky and complex forecast. Will be interesting to see where the inverted trough sets up. Could be a narrow strip in CT with larger totals.

Reports of snow already in Fairfield County. NWS Upton thoughts.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THE 500MB TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ON SUNDAY...STRENGTHENING THE LOW MOVING NE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MODELS ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS OF GREATER QPF TOTALS. PINPOINTING WHERE EXACTLY THIS SETS UP...PIVOTS...AND TO WHAT DEGREE IT WILL ENHANCE PRECIP IS VERY DIFFICULT. THIS TROUGH EVENTUALLY EXITS TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...ENDING THE HIGHER THREATS OF SNOWFALL. COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS EVENT WHERE AN INVERTED TROUGH WAS IN THE VICINITY...THE SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AXIS IS FARTHER SOUTH...AND LIFT THEREFORE MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO NOT BE AS STEEP...AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EVENT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER. SO BEST GUESS THEREFORE IS FOR SNOW TO RAIN RATIOS TO NOT BE AS HIGH THIS TIME AROUND...AND PROBABLY IN THE ORDER OF 11:1 TO 15:1. WITH ALL OF THESE FACTORS...SNOWFALL FORECAST IS CHALLENGING WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ONLY A DUSTING IN SOME SPOTS WITH A NARROW BAND OF A FEW INCHES NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM IT. THERE COULD ALSO BE EXTENDED PERIODS WHERE NO SNOWFALL IS HAPPENING AND IT WILL ALMOST SEEM LIKE 2 SEPARATE EVENTS FOR SOME LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE WITH A QPF AXIS ORIENTED WNW/ESE CUTTING ACROSS CENTRAL LONG ISLAND. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL FALL SHORT OF ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA. CURRENT SNOW FORECAST CALLS FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT LONG ISLAND...WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Brian26

Very tricky and complex forecast. Will be interesting to see where the inverted trough sets up. Could be a narrow strip in CT with larger totals.

Reports of snow already in Fairfield County. NWS Upton thoughts.
.

Yeah those troughs can throw down suprise snowfall totals but remember the inverted trough that was supposed to happen a couple weeks ago for Boston. They had watches up for 6" and the trough never happened and they got nothing. They are VERY hard to predict. But should be fun. Keep us posted if NWS has any goodies in their discussions.

Its snowing here in SW CT. Light snow . The metars show where the snow is being reported falling. Not yet at BDR but White Plains, Danbury and Hartford yes.

[Cambium]

Uptons latest snow total map. Pretty much nothing for the northern tier from Boston. This is mostly a coastal snow event. Long Island could get 3 easily.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Uptons latest snow total map. Pretty much nothing for the northern tier from Boston. This is mostly a coastal snow event. Long Island could get 3 easily.

Yeah, here's the "northern tier/BOX" map

[Cambium]

It doesnt take much. I-95 in Fairfield is a mess at 11pm and if it wasnt one of the most congested roads, it wouldnt build up as fast..

Motor Vehicle Accident - WESTPORT

Slippery Conditions Pos - Southwest CT at 2/2/2013 10:35:41 PM

Motor Vehicle Accident - DARIEN

Motor Vehicle Accident - DARIEN

Motor Vehicle Accident - NORWALK

[TobinJ]

Just got in...the trip through Litchfield county was a little slippery. 'Bout a quarter inch of snow so far nothing major but the snow has a glittery look to it, like ice.

[Cambium]

What you see is what you get.. ..

This is why I gave up this year calling for storms outside 3 days. Not even a 24hr forecast is being correct.

1/2" here.

Upton:
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PASS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON MONDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL THEN
IMPACT THE REGION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHES OF VERY LIGHT SNOW PERSIST OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT ATTM.
MAX ACCUMULATION PER SPOTTER REPORTS AND ONLINE WX FORUM POSTS
APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE OVER AN INCH OVER PARTS OF WESTERN LONG
ISLAND...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE. LITTLE IF ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. HOWEVER...AS THE
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH...AN INVERTED TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP NEARBY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON THAT
COULD GENERATE ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW. THE LATEST NAM/RAP/HRRR
INSIST ON THIS FEATURE REMAINING JUST TO THE SOUTH

[7 Wishes]

Snow total reports from BOX and OKX show 1" as the highest amount, and the ones closer to or just above 1" were generally in NJ and near the Cape. OKX didn't even "advertise" the link on their home page, I had to "back door" my way into it (i.e. click on the BOX link and change the "BOX" in the URL to "OKX"

National Weather Service Text Product Display - BOX

National Weather Service Text Product Display - OKX

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Snow total reports from BOX and OKX show 1" as the highest amount, and the ones closer to or just above 1" were generally in NJ and near the Cape. OKX didn't even "advertise" the link on their home page, I had to "back door" my way into it (i.e. click on the BOX link and change the "BOX" in the URL to "OKX"

National Weather Service Text Product Display - BOX

National Weather Service Text Product Display - OKX

My sister called said they were getting a ton of Lake Effects! She has over half foot on the ground.

Buffalo area just got 15 inches of fresh snow. Philly is technically above normal snowfall this year. It's been a snowy year for many and a snowless year for many.

Here in CT, I'm watching if this Norlun is setting up. No faith in anymore snow today. We'll see. Current radar shows Ocean effect snows to our northeast.