[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Could be.. I dont see a pattern flip in next 2 weeks. That blocking and positive PNA doing the dirty work digging the trough down for us.

Sorry guys... I dont see warmth coming yet...

Latest GFS was so cold it brings widespread teens back into the picture and NO 50s for highs. Last year we were pushing 60s/70s

Well I say if its gonna stay cold..let it snow

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by jp03

Well I say if its gonna stay cold..let it snow

Well......it's back...... (latest Euro run)

[Cambium]

Patterns don't change fast .. so here we go ..

NWS upton shortened..

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THREE SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH IN THE EXTENDED.

THE FIRST IS FRI NGT INTO SAT. THIS IS A CLIPPER AND THE OVERALL COLDEST OF THE THREE..... RIGHT NOW A 1-3 OR 2-4 INCH SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THIS BAND... BEST COASTAL CHANCE FOR ACCUMS IN CT.

SECOND SYSTEM IS A PACIFIC WAVE WHICH RACES ACROSS THE COUNTRY.... INTERIOR SPOTS WILL RUN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW ACCUMS....IF THE 00Z ECMWF PANS OUT...MODERATE ACCUMS POSSIBLE SUN NGT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THE PCPN ENDING QUICKLY ON MONDAY

THE THIRD SYSTEM IS MON NGT AND TUE. THIS HAS ORIGINS IN THE GULF OF AK AND SPINS UP A SFC LOW WHICH TRACKS INVOF NYC. GOMEX MOISTURE ENTRAINED INTO THIS LOW...SO MORE PCPN IS LIKELY. THE STRONGER WAA HOWEVER COULD LIMIT SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MAINLY RAIN ATTM AT THE COASTS AND CITY.

[kidyankee764]

This Fri-Sat clipper - will it pose an issue getting to NY airports early Sat AM?

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by kidyankee764

This Fri-Sat clipper - will it pose an issue getting to NY airports early Sat AM?

Nahh dont think so. It's March now. As we saw we need more than 6" of snow to really cause issues on the roads now. If 4" of snow is forecasted to accumulate, roads dont start accumulating until much later so it's virtually cut in half and then melts quick I guess.

But looking at the latest GFS again, all I can say is wow, what an opposite from last year. I see cold and lots of snowy days next 2 weeks. We'll see.

We should flip in April sometime.

[Cambium]

Somewhat on topic..

My last oil fill was January 2012 (14 months ago).. The bigger stove investment was worth it on 2 ends.. Better efficiency (burned less wood) and Longer burn times because of bigger pieces.

We didnt have Many single digits this year but it worked hard during those January cold snap we had. Other than that it was needed everyday this winter.

I just stacked a little for next few days since its going to get cold again.

I wasnt burning wood this time last year in fact only went through 1.5 cords last year. This year I did 3 cords but would have done 4 with the smaller stove.

Best wood to burn during Crisp Autumn or Spring days is Cherry. Nothing better than fresh air and Cherry firewood in the air.



And FYI... I was tilling the soil 3 weeks after the Blizzard. Thats right... one of the few locations we can have above normal snows and the ground still be soft at the end of February.

[Cambium]

I promise.... If I see true heat or consistant warmth I will show it... But for now.. everything continues to point to a seasonable/cool/cold March... Which means 20s for lows, 30s for highs. I say this as its hitting 50 today but 2 days of 50 is peanuts in this overall pattern.

GFS continues the cold theme. The East or SouthEast ridge is nowhere to be found.... yet.

So the 80s and 90s will enter the SouthWest first. Not even Florida will get those hot days yet.(80s/90s)

[Cambium]

Current radar showing popcorn showers and snow showers. Basically a large vortex sitting over the Great lakes is spinning off some instability but because nothing is organized its just hit or miss snow or rain showers. Some reports showing these snow showers are reduced visibility squalls which put down 1-3" in spots. This will all move towards us tonight/tomorrow

Notice the Midday temps back there too

[Cambium]

So here's the latest Euro.. Focusing on the 19th storm which is still on the table.

Basically... #1 will move in first as a light system putting down some light snow. Hard to say where because we're mid March now. (definetly north of I90 maybe north of merrit). Light stuff.

Then as that one is bringing unsettled weather #2 is dropping down while the Sub tropical Jet (#3) is active and spawing its own system.

2 things will happen... Either they will stay seperate OR they will merge.

If 2 and 3 stay seperate than #3 can go off the coast and develop on its own.

If 2 and 3 merge together the question is where.. There's also a twist if they merge.. a triple Low can form on the coast as well.

Confused??? I think I am too .. Let me make this simple... we dont know yet. lol

[GraniteStater]

^
It will take consistently below average temperatures the rest of the month for the northern New England to see temperatures closer to seasonal norms. Average temperatures in March have been running 3-5F above average due to warm low temperatures.