[Csiko]

Originally Posted by Cambium

LOL... And I guess a disappearing act is in store for me too.

GFS says 90s coming with high dewpoints for many days. Summer continues.

This weekend could become brutal.

Lucky to finally be at a place with a pool now. Oooh man.

[wavehunter007]

Overall I think we should see fairly nice summer weather now that the ridge as FINALLY pushed west. The clouds and the very high dew points (which feel really bad when it's overcast), should give way to slightly warmer weather but a bit lower dew points and humidity I would think.

So the upcoming holiday forecast looks like a typical one for the Tri-State in terms of summer - partly/mostly sunny, highs in mid/upper 80's (maybe 90 F inland), fog in the morning along the coast, and moderate humidity:

[Mixum]

this is awful depressing news.....

[papafox]

Originally Posted by Cambium

LOL... And I guess a disappearing act is in store for me too.

GFS says 90s coming with high dewpoints for many days. Summer continues.

This weekend could become brutal.

You are going to HATE me Cambium!!

On Saturday I'm flying wayyyy up NORTH to the very remote town of Schefferville about 500 miles north of Quebec City!

Check this out from Accuweather

Weather in Schefferville - AccuWeather Forecast for Quebec Canada

Sat 7/6 69/38
Sun 7/7 58/37
Mon 64/46
Tue 64/50
Wed 68/53

[mels]

Wow, papfox, that is remote! I bet it is gorgeous up there (and apparently with cool temps!). And here I thought the Gaspe Peninsula was out there.

[papafox]

Originally Posted by mels

Wow, papfox, that is remote! I bet it is gorgeous up there (and apparently with cool temps!). And here I thought the Gaspe Peninsula was out there.

I actually think the whole subarctic boreal forest looks better in the winter even though its cold (occasionally 40 below or even less!)

Unlike CT, it just seems like it was meant to snow up there if you know what I mean. I would go in the winter if it werent for the travel hassels flying up there in a plane that has no ice protection capability. Probably when I retire and have unlimited free time and a totally flex schedule!

As for the town itself, its pretty run down (Native Canadians in poverty with all the associated social problems, etc) but that a large part of why I am drawn to it, is becaus of how different, desolate and stark it is.

Funny I'm so excited to be visiting there because i always gripe about how unpleasant and run down Hartford is, yet Schefferville makes it seem like the Upper East Side!

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by papafox

You are going to HATE me Cambium!!

On Saturday I'm flying wayyyy up NORTH to the very remote town of Schefferville about 500 miles north of Quebec City!

Low in the 30s this weekend!! Oh man, I'm jealous. Have fun and Enjoy! Do me a favor if you remember.. Post a picture of the thermometer like you did that day you went camping in sub zero temp. I'll always remember that picture.

[Cambium]

Enjoy summer.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...UP TO 100 DUE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.

* TIMING...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE OVER 90 DEGREES BY NOON. HEAT
INDICES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FROM MIDDAY THROUGH
EVENING...AND AROUND 100 DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

[Brian26]

NWS Upton's long term discussion. Looks like this pattern is here to stay. More rain next week. Looks like Saturday is going to be hot! I want winter now.. Lol

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LONG TERM STARTS OFF WITH A LARGE AREA OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE EAST REMAINING IN CONTROL. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WHICH IS THE MAIN STORY FOR THE LONG TERM.

QUITE A BIT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY FOR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS FOR SATURDAY. METS/NAM HAVE LOWER DEWPOINTS/HIGHER TEMPS WHILE GFS/MAV DATA HAVE LOWER TEMPS/HIGHER DEW POINTS. MIX DOWN HIGH TEMP VALUES ARE JUST BELOW MET VALUES SO HAVE STAYED NEAR THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE. AS FOR DEW POINTS...THE SPREAD IS 5-7 DEGREES AT TIMES. HAVE WENT WITH A GENERAL BLEND AT THIS POINT BUT CAN EXPECT AFTERNOON VALUES TO BE A TAD LOWER WITH AFTERNOON MIXING. HIGHS THEN ON SAT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MIDDLE 90S. LOOKS RIGHT NOW THAT SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK.

HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. HIGHS AND HEAT INDICES SUN-TUE WILL BE SIMILAR TO SAT...UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. LOOKS LIKE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR NYC WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH SUNDAY AT LEAST...WITH MON-WED RIGHT AT 93-95 FOR THE HEAT INDEX.

AS FOR PRESENT WEATHER...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDS STARTING TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.

GLOBAL MODELS HINT AT THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN BY MONDAY WITH THE GFS BRINGING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER AND A MONDAY NIGHT ARRIVAL AND A DEEPER WAVE. ZONAL FLOW THEN SETS UP BEHIND THE WAVE WITH A POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED RAINY PATTERN SETTING IN. WITH TIMING UNCERTAINTY...HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. &&

[Brian26]

Love the NWS. The detailed text forecast are awesome. This is from Taunton Mass office. Please stay cool out there. Its going to get dangerously hot out there.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 409 AM EDT THU JUL 4 2013 ...HEAT INDICES NEAR OR OVER 100 DEGREES ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...

.VERY HUMID AIR COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 90S WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES VERY CLOSE TO OR OVER 100 DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.

.SYNOPSIS... WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CHANNEL VERY HUMID AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WHILE PROVIDING SUFFICIENT DAYTIME SUNSHINE FOR HOT TEMPERATURES. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE OF SECONDARY IMPORTANCE.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THROUGH 12Z... FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST/ISLANDS AS WELL AS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS. THIS MAY SPREAD BRIEFLY INTO THE CT VALLEY.

TODAY... FOG BURNS OFF THIS MORNING. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE.

EXPECTING FULL SUN/FULL MIXING FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW MIXING DEPTHS TO AT LEAST 850 MB AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE EQUIV OF 17-19C AT 850 MB...SO EXPECTATION OF MAX TEMPS IS THE LOW TO MID 90S...EXCEPT HIGH 80S IN THE CENTRAL HILLS. MEANWHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAY. THE RESULTING APPARENT TEMPS REACH 99-102F IN THE MERRIMACK VALLEY AND METRO BOSTON AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THEY ALSO REACH INTO INLAND SOUTHEAST MASS AND THE URBAN CORE OF EASTERN RI...AND THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY OF CT AND MASS. WE HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO COVER THESE AREAS.

MIXING WILL ALSO TAP INTO 20-25 KNOT WINDS ALOFT AND BRING THEM TO THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON AS GUSTS. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

OTHER QUESTION IS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. INSTABILITY REMAINS PLENTIFUL WITH SBCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG...SBLI -2 TO -4...AND TOTALS IN THE MID 40S. BUT THERE IS NO CLEAR FOCUS FOR STORMS TO FORM AND SUPPORTIVE DYNAMICS ARE WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST. IF ANYTHING THE RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSIVE. BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS WOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHWEST MASS. WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA WITH POPS LESS THAN 15 PCT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... TONIGHT... ANOTHER FAIR AND HUMID NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS NEAR DEWPOINT...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. SOUTHWEST FLOW OF HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL AGAIN SUPPORT FOG AND STRATUS MOVING UP ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTS AND ISLANDS OF RI AND MASS...MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY... ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE STILL IN CONTROL. TEMPS ALOFT WILL AGAIN BE 17-19C SUPPORTING UPPER 80S IN THE HILLS AND LOW TO MID 90S MOST LOCATIONS. THE APPARENT TEMP WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 100F IN MANY AREAS SO WE EXPECT ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT. && .

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS...

* POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 4+ DAY HEAT WAVE THIS WEEKEND

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY MAINLY INTERIOR

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES... 04/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF SYNOPTIC SCALE RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WHILE THERE ARE DEFINITE DIFFERENCES IN EXACTLY HOW ANY SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW THAT RESULTS OVER THE REGION BY NEXT WEEK...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED AFTER THE RIDGE LOSES ITS GRIP. THEREFORE...AM EXPECTING HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MORE /POTENTIALLY WET/ AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AFTER THIS WEEKEND. ECMWF/GFS ARE BOTH IN LINE REGARDING THIS SHIFT...BUT DISAGREE ON TIMING OF ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL JET. WILL BASELINE WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...BUT MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FROM THERE.

DETAILS... THIS WEEKEND... W ATLANTIC RIDGE AND SFC BERMUDA HIGH PRES LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALLOWS WARM/HUMID AIRMASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAT WAVE TO CONTINUE. THERE IS ONE ISSUE TO RESOLVE HOWEVER...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT REGARDING A WEAK TROF FORMING ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IS THE RESPONSE TO THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF WAVE WHICH WOULD BRING THE ZONAL JET FURTHER S. HAVE BEEN NOTING THIS IN THE MASS FIELDS FOR A FEW RUNS NOW. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION ON BOTH DAYS. THERE ARE SOME MITIGATING FACTORS...SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT SOME DRY CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE THANKS TO THE GRADUALLY EXITING HIGH PRES AND LOW TO MID LVL FLOW WILL BE WEAK...REDUCING SHEAR. STILL DO SEE PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES OR MORE SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME HEAVIER RAIN NONETHELESS. WILL FOCUS POPS MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE AND W OF A LINE FROM WILLIMANTIC-WORCESTER-MANCHESTER...AS IT IS THESE LOCATIONS WHERE THE CAP LOOKS TO HAVE THE LEAST EFFECT. WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED AND H85 TEMPS APPROACHING +18C BOTH DAYS TEMPS COULD STILL REACH LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM ANY REMNANT COULD COVER.

MON INTO WED... WITH THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT FURTHER S...A STRONG ZONAL JET WILL GRADUALLY SAG S FROM NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD. AM NOTING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW...BUT THERE ARE QUITE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING. WITH THE JET IN PLACE THERMAL WIND ARGUMENT SUGGESTS A STALLED LOW LVL TO NEAR SFC FRONT MAY SET UP IN THE VICINITY WHICH COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION AND SOME WET WX. THIS WOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THERE WOULD BE WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN EACH OF THE SHORTWAVES. WILL HAVE PERIODS OF AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH MIXES OF DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS LIKELY NOT QUITE AS WARM...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY START IN THE 90S ON MON OUTSIDE OF ANY CLOUDS. THE HUMIDITY REMAINS AS DWPTS SHOULD STAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

LATE NEXT WEEK... NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE FROM EARLY IN THE WEEK. ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONS RUNS STILL SUGGEST UPPER LVL JET REMAINS IN PLACE AND IT WILL COME DOWN TO THE TIMING OF ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH IT. WILL CONTINUE WITH PERIODS OF WET AND DRY WX WITHOUT ANY WASHOUTS.