[Cambium]

That's right, this morning northern CT was in a heavy band of rain from West to East. Haven't looked at the rain totals so its nice to see an inch fell somewhere.

Posting current temps since its so interesting.

A/C needed to the west of the Hudson valley & heat needed to the East. 81° in Ithaca, NY, 55° in Westfield, MA



As far as upcoming...
I don't see any extremes either way next week or so. Typical 40s/50s & 60s/70s. Some chilly mornings coming up this week (low 40s) but nothing unsual for October. I will say that I see some signs of change after mid month. Something tells me the kids will have to be bundled up for Halloween.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Looks like we might get a lot less than originally forecast as Karen is already weakening rapidly and forecasts have it moving EAST instead of north-northeast.

We did get a bit or rain on sat and slight drizzle today. Looks like the last of any chance of showers will pass through on Monday night. After that - sunny and dry conditions look to return with mild temps in the upper 60's and lows in the upper 40's F, so this week looks nice:






As far as the patter for the rest of October...NWS/NOAA still calling for warm eastern half of the USA. I see no real chance of widespread frosty nights in the Tri-State area at least through October 20th (based on NOAA 8 to 14 day). So my guess is any chance of frost at least in southern/coastal Connecticut/Long Island and NYC will not happen to the closing days of October or maybe even early November. NWS Bridgeport has not had a frost since April 4th(185 days ago). So I think once again (based on the 8 to 14 day outlook) we could be looking at 200 + frost free days in many areas of southern/coastal CT:

[Cambium]

Tropical like out there. Dewpoints in the mid 60s! A warm front is right over us but will give way to a strong cold front still in PA.


Upton says winds pick up today maybe gusting to 40mph. Thunderstorms stay north and west of NYC but loss of day time heating from sun going down early might hold off any storms. Quick hitting 1 inch of rain.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRONG UPPER LOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
EARLY THIS MORNING OPENING UP AND NEGATIVELY TILTING THROUGH WESTERN
NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS NORTH THROUGH WESTERN QUEBEC...WHILE ITS TRAILING STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH
OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SCOUR THE LOW-
LEVEL STRATUS/FOG FROM S TO N THIS MORNING...BUT OVERALL STILL
EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TODAY.

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER...AROUND 925-950 MB...ARE MODELED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 40
TO 45 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTS OF 35 TO 40
MPH THIS AFTERNOON. IF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUNSHINE DEVELOPS...A
BIT DEEPER MIXED LAYER WOULD BE REALIZED AND AN ISOLATED GUST OR
SUSTAINED WIND TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE POSSIBLE...30+ MPH
SUSTAINED OR 45-50 MPH GUST. CONFIDENCE ON THIS BEING WIDESPREAD
IS LOW.

MAIN PRECIP ACTION WILL BE WITH AN ONGOING LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO APPROACH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING...STRONG
SHEAR/WIND FIELDS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP ON THE LEADING EDGE AS THE ACTIVITY
APPROACHES WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED
INSTABILITY...BUT WILL NOT NEED MUCH WITH THE MENTIONED SUPPORT. THE
GREATEST THREAT AREA FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE N&W OF
NYC AS THIS AREA WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BEST SHORTWAVE
FORCING AND AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCE. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
ORGANIZED LINE OR ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS
DUE THE STRONG LLJ...AND WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL HELICITY CAN NOT EVEN
RULE OUT A TORNADO. WOULD EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION TO
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD TO THE COAST THIS EVENING INTO A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS AND FARTHER AWAY FROM BEST SHORTWAVE SUPPORT.

IN TERMS OF RAINFALL...THIS CONTINUES TO LOOKS LIKE A QUICK HITTING
EVENT OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR DETAILS.

[Cambium]

Strong line of Storms Timing:: HRRR is faster than the NAM or RAP. Keep your eyes and ears open. HRRR says the line enters into CT around 4pm. NAM says 5. RAP says 6. Either way rush hour could be bad.

Havent seen a defined line like that in a while. Strong Cold front pushing up against the High Pressure. Winds picked up to 20mph here.

[exnj1970]

Tornado warning for New Jersey and Hudson Valley NY.Possibility of 60 mph winds.Channel 11 is worried about cranes in NYC toppling.

[Cambium]

https://twitter.com/NWSNewYorkNY/sta...49328550854657

[Cambium]

It's closer.

Updated Radar with Wind Gusts and Temps bottom right. Warnings embedded in line. Winds blowing to 30mph here. Looks chilly behind the front. Wow. Midday.

[Cambium]

Tornado watch for Litchfield County.


* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 900 AM UNTIL
500 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
WASHINGTON DISTRICT OF COLUM TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF UTICA
NEW YORK. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

[Csiko]

Still estimating for that squall line to hit 91 at 7 PMish?

That seems like a thing I definitely want to beat home.

[Cambium]

Radar Update 3:25pm. Line Closing in on NYC area. T-Storm Warnings out. Sun poking through around Southern Westchester/Fairfield counties.

I don't see a lot of lightning with this line. I think Winds will be the story if anything.