[wavehunter007]

Northeasters (ocean storms) are actually uncommon much before latter November in the areas of the East Coast below Boston. The high off the East Coast normally keeps sending any mid latitude storms toward the lakes until late November. Yes, one can slip through, but the odds are not high.


As far as the forecast:

According to the NWS...The storm on Mon - Wed WILL head toward the Great Lakes based on the current forecasts. It will have little impact on the Tri-State area, other than to pull down modestly cool air.

The long range storm at the end of next week (if it even develops) is forecast to head WELL east of us and OTS. This is hot off the press this morning.

000
FXUS61 KOKX 190948
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
548 AM EDT SAT OCT 19 2013


THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GFS ALSO HAS
THIS FEATURES...BUT IS WELL OFFSHORE. INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR UNCERTAINTY...BUT NOTING THAT THE 12Z ECMWF WAS
MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN.



One other note...NWS Bridgeport had another day on Friday with mean temps above normal (+4)....this marks 16 days this month that have been above normal....2 days at normal.....and zero days below normal. The cool air next week should help change this to some degree. However, with all the dry weather and sunshine - the month average high has been 70.7 F so far this month - about 6 F above normal (normal October high is 64 F):

[Cambium]

I don't know if there's a set date on when NorEaster's start like Hurricane season, but it typically happens October through winter. Tried to find an NWS story on it but couldn't.

Obviously any "starting" month will have less times then middle of the road. In other words, it happens in October but more in December.

http://www.suu.edu/faculty/colberg/H...oreasters.html

Nor'easters / Extratropical cyclones
1. Cold core storms that form along fronts where there is a large difference in temperatures (very cold air meets warm air).
2. Most common from October to April (fall, winter and spring storms).
3. These storms can form in
•East slope of the Rock Mountains (Colorado)
•Gulf of Mexico
•Bahamas and east Florida
•Atlantic coast
4. Lack a distinct eye and are not circular. Often coma shaped


As far as the NWS discussion... that was from 5:45am. The latest 6z GFS didn't come out until an hour later so they were talking about the previous run. Also note the last line there... "BUT NOTING THAT THE 12Z ECMWF WAS
MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN."

EURO ended up closer to the coast then its last update.

[Brian26]

This best sums it up.

A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK RESULTING IN A MORE ACTIVE AND EVEN COOLER WEATHER FOR LATE OCTOBER.

We are heading into a very active and interesting pattern. It will be very interesting to watch the models the next few days.

The cold is going to come pouring in next week and stick around for quite a bit. Drastic change from the weather we have been having. CT will almost certainly see a widespread frost right down to the shoreline. Take advantage of this weekend and finish up those outdoor projects and get the furnace's and stove's ready.

[Cambium]

GFS12z just out. Has the storm again and tight to coast. Rain and wind only for CT. (no big deal type of storm)

Very Cold when it leaves. I wouldn't rule out a flurry or sleet pellets with this setup.

If the storm bombs out and is stronger than shown, no doubt it produces its own cold air and snow can fall in more areas. We seen this with the Nov 7th snow storm last year

[Cambium]

Southern CT mini drought showing nice on this map. D0 now.
Departure from normal last 60days on right. The oranges are 3 to 4.5 inches below normal.

[Cambium]

Excellent site I came across regarding NorEasters/East Coast Winter Storms. This graph they have shows how many storms we've had each season since 1947. You can click the graph and get the actual number break down.

Looking at the blue line (all Winter storms) Right off the bat to my unprofessional eye we had a low count last year. First thing I thought is up we go from there..

Looking closer, something else caught my eye. There hasn't been 2 years in a row with under 20 storms back to back except 1964-65. We just had a back to back low count.

So it looks like the percentage of having a higher count of storms this season is higher. But there's always a first, so having 3 yrs in a row with less than 20 is possible too.

BTW .... "This routine was used along with the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis dataset (1948, 1951–97) to identify storms over the October–April winter season"

East Coast Winter Storms

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Excellent site I came across regarding NorEasters/East Coast Winter Storms. This graph they have shows how many storms we've had each season since 1947. You can click the graph and get the actual number break down.

Looking at the blue line (all Winter storms) Right off the bat to my unprofessional eye we had a low count last year. First thing I thought is up we go from there..

Looking closer, something else caught my eye. There hasn't been 2 years in a row with under 20 storms back to back except 1964-65. We just had a back to back low count.

So it looks like the percentage of having a higher count of storms this season is higher. But there's always a first, so having 3 yrs in a row with less than 20 is possible too.

BTW .... "This routine was used along with the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis dataset (1948, 1951–97) to identify storms over the October–April winter season"

East Coast Winter Storms

So in other words we may have more winter storms this year ..then again we may not. Yep that about sums up the value of long term forecasting

[Mixum]

Look outside folks..... THIS is what October is suppose to look like. Just lil colder!!!!

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by jp03

So in other words we may have more winter storms this year ..then again we may not. Yep that about sums up the value of long term forecasting

Go with the probability percentage. Its obviously a Higher percentage to get more.
In fact here's their forecast. What goes down must come up I guess. East Coast Winter Storms

[Brian26]

I don't really care if it snows or not. I am just happy with the transition into much colder temperatures. This polar front is strong and going to drop all the way down to Florida.

From the NWS medium range extended forecast. Looks like the cold is sticking around for quite awhile. With the cold in place and the pattern we are in. The snow will be here soon.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1159 AM EDT SAT OCT 19 2013

IN THE EAST... THE BROAD AND RELATIVELY DEEP TROUGH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST AND
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH THE POLAR FRONT LIKELY CLEARING MOST IF
NOT ALL OF FLORIDA.