[Cambium]

Reply from NWS Upton regarding why no severe storms near the coast for Westchester and lower 4 counties in CT. Just gets more fascinating. Not a Marine layer?

"We think it may have been a combination of losing daytime heating, coastal influence, and the strongest forcing shifting north over time. The water temperatures are not a huge factor this time of year and the observed sounding at 18Z showed no evidence of a marine layer on Long Island."

Their 3rd point is key. Forcing shifted north. Meaning the atmosphere changed last minute and the threat was more northwards. No matter how much technology we have, mother nature always has last word.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Reply from NWS Upton regarding why no severe storms near the coast for Westchester and lower 4 counties in CT. Just gets more fascinating. Not a Marine layer?

"We think it may have been a combination of losing daytime heating, coastal influence, and the strongest forcing shifting north over time. The water temperatures are not a huge factor this time of year and the observed sounding at 18Z showed no evidence of a marine layer on Long Island."

Their 3rd point is key. Forcing shifted north. Meaning the atmosphere changed last minute and the threat was more northwards. No matter how much technology we have, mother nature always has last word.

So is the reason for "losing daytime heating" and "forcing shifting north" the fact that there were morning thunderstoms in the OKX area and there really weren't anywhere else? That is, did those thunderstorms make things less unstable and give the supposed "big storm" less punch? It seemed on the map as the storms came that there were a lot of "red" both north and south of CT and the tri-state area, but almost a "hole" over here in the middle of the line.

[andthentherewere3]

Originally Posted by jp03

2 inches here today total ...good call weathermen..dead on...in fact almost underdone./

You must be one of the only ones in the state to get that much rain yesterday! How do you measure rainfall?

[jp03]

Originally Posted by andthentherewere3

You must be one of the only ones in the state to get that much rain yesterday! How do you measure rainfall?

An old fashioned rain gauge. It seems quite accurate. . The morning storms trained right over a line from Ridgefield through EasternDanbury and Bethel and that was the bulk of it..

Curious what the airport here got. My guess is less as they are on the Western side of town.

[wavehunter007]

All of you seemed to have done better than we did down along the eastern Connecticut coast – zip here, no thunder, no winds, not even any rain I think. This morning the ground is just damp (?). However, that did look like an impressive squall line at one point yesterday. As to why severe thunderstorms seem to weaken as they move east of NYC – I would think that stable marine layer is a player: Just a little bit of a SSE flow of stable ocean air into these thunderstorms weakens them rapidly. Since I live south and east of most of you I see this effect the most: We saw about 10 thunderstorms here since mid May (none severe).

In any event, now on to another long stretch of gorgeous stable weather on tap along the East Coast: Perfect temps (highs between 70 and 80 F)…..bone dry…. lower humidity….and blazing sunshine. Time to finally weed that jungle in my garden! Enjoy:

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by jp03

An old fashioned rain gauge. It seems quite accurate. . The morning storms trained right over a line from Ridgefield through EasternDanbury and Bethel and that was the bulk of it..

Curious what the airport here got. My guess is less as they are on the Western side of town.

NWS Stations:

BDR: .30"
HFD: .59"
BDL: .62"
Westfield Airport: 1.37"
HPN: .87"
LGA: 1.18"

Other areas. Date is just when they updated the totals. Its for 9/8/12

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

So is the reason for "losing daytime heating" and "forcing shifting north" the fact that there were morning thunderstoms in the OKX area and there really weren't anywhere else? That is, did those thunderstorms make things less unstable and give the supposed "big storm" less punch? It seemed on the map as the storms came that there were a lot of "red" both north and south of CT and the tri-state area, but almost a "hole" over here in the middle of the line.

Yeah, I believe the T-Storms and Tornado in NYC in the morning cooled the atmosphere and drained it out so to speak. Kinda stabalized it in a sense.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

NWS Stations:

BDR: .30"
HFD: .59"
BDL: .62"
Westfield Airport: 1.37"
HPN: .87"
LGA: 1.18"

Other areas. Date is just when they updated the totals. Its for 9/8/12

THANKS! YEP that 2.3 SSE of Brookfield is right on.

[Cambium]

Could Danbury get to 30s?

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick...2=-73.4715&e=0



Upton for Monday Night.

FCST TEMPS CONTINUE TO RUN 1-2 DEG BELOW A 12Z MAV/MET MOS
BLEND...WITH HIGHS 70-75...AND LOWS 50-55 NYC METRO AND WESTERN
LONG ISLAND...IN THE 40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND PERHAPS SOME UPPER
30S IN SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS.

[Cambium]

I had forgotten what 60s felt like with low dewpoints. This feels good.

Here were the temps from this morning.