[Cambium]

Slow start this morning, not sure what to check and post. lol

Your probably hearing the winds outside as the air is making its way in now. They should pick up a little more later. Here's the Wind gust forecast through Monday.



Here's how the temp anomalies look for Sunday. This map is showing how much below normal the air is above us (4000') which translates to a cold surface. And models are showing it stays below normal past 1 week.



Storm Update::

Euro shows roughly 1.5" of a cold rain across CT and heavy interior snows. GFS shows it further East which means colder and 3-5" of snow across CT. The middle ground of this would be Rain to snow for us which is my thinking. In fact... Snow to rain/mix to snow is what I think. Starting early Wed morning though Wednesday night.

[Brian26]

Absolutely brutal cold air about to pour in. Many records are going to be crushed. Storm next week is still uncertain but the potential is there for all snow but also all rain. We will know more by Sunday-Monday. Temperature guidance dropped as its colder than forecasted.


NOTE THE LIST OF RECORD TEMPS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION. MODEL FORECAST DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND ZERO OR SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO. IF THIS VERIFIES...IT WILL BE AS ALMOST AS LOW/DRY AS IT HAS FOR ANY NOVEMBER 24TH SINCE 1949.

ONE CONCERN IS THAT THE OBSERVED EARLY MORNING TEMPS ARE MUCH COLDER THAN MODEL FORECASTS FOR US TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS WE TRENDED COLDER THAN GUIDANCE BY 3 DEGREES.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A STORM AFFECTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK...AND THUS THE THERMAL PROFILES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE EXPECTED. MODELS INDICATE ANYTHING FROM AN INSIDE RUNNER THROUGH NEW YORK STATE WHICH WOULD BRING RAIN TO MOST...IF NOT ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO A SYSTEM JUST FAR ENOUGH OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK TO RESULT IN SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.


Look at these temps! Absolutely unreal for this time of year.

[andthentherewere3]

I can't keep up with all the predictions here for dire frigid temps and snow this week, but watching weather forecasts on the old fashioned TV I keep seeing little chance of accumulating snow forecast for Wednesday. The Euro model is predicting rain in Ct. The bitter cold Sunday is not supposed to last more than a few days. So while some of you cling to the dramatic forecast, I'm rooting for rain.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Brian26

Absolutely brutal cold air about to pour in.
Look at these temps! Absolutely unreal for this time of year.

Yup. Some aren't realizing that there are no 50s in sight for over a week now. and very few 40s. That's COLD and the stat maps will show it in about a week. Some impressive stuff. The core of it will be Sunday/Monday but the air still lingers because we have some blocking now.

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

It was the 90s,.

Here you go... Thanksgiving max temps since 1990. 9 of them had some rain. 1 had snow (2005). that's at BDR. Maybe BDL had more snow T-Days. But yeah, Thanksgiving had some colder ones in the 1990s.

[andthentherewere3]

Just to clear up any confusion, Sikirsky is actually located in Stratford.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by andthentherewere3

Just to clear up any confusion, Sikirsky is actually located in Stratford.

That's always been a big hooha with the weather peeps. BDR is in Stratford yet it's always mentioned as "Bridgeport" with NWS. That's why we have to mentioned "BDR" when talking about them to clear up any confusion its not actually Bridgeport.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Yup. Some aren't realizing that there are no 50s in sight for over a week now. and very few 40s. That's COLD and the stat maps will show it in about a week. Some impressive stuff. The core of it will be Sunday/Monday but the air still lingers because we have some blocking now.



Here you go... Thanksgiving max temps since 1990. 9 of them had some rain. 1 had snow (2005). that's at BDR. Maybe BDL had more snow T-Days. But yeah, Thanksgiving had some colder ones in the 1990s.

93, 94, and 96 were the years I went to the Macy's parade, LOL! And funny the chart starts with 1990 because in 1989 everyone had sticking snow Thanksgiving night into morning (4-5" in NYC for example).

The other years the immediate Tri-State area had sticking snow falling on Thanksgiving eve/day were:

1898

1938

1971 (this one had a rain/snow mix and only a trace in NYC and BDR.......but totals went up dramatically not too far north/inland......over a foot as close in as Danbury and Poughkeepsie, 8" in Hartford and over 2 feet in Albany, NY and the Berkshires.....I was too young to remember this one, but I've read about it)

Originally Posted by andthentherewere3

Just to clear up any confusion, Sikirsky is actually located in Stratford.

Originally Posted by Cambium

That's always been a big hooha with the weather peeps. BDR is in Stratford yet it's always mentioned as "Bridgeport" with NWS. That's why we have to mentioned "BDR" when talking about them to clear up any confusion its not actually Bridgeport.

But it and the airport is there because of Bridgeport, it's the principal city in that area, that's why it's called "Bridgeport" by the NWS and it's three letter airport code is BDR and not something like "SFD" or "STR"......for example both National and Dulles airports are in Virginia, but they are called "Washington, DC". A lot of that debate is by people who don't want to credit anything to Bridgeport.

[andthentherewere3]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

But it and the airport is there because of Bridgeport, it's the principal city in that area, that's why it's called "Bridgeport" by the NWS and it's three letter airport code is BDR and not something like "SFD" or "STR"......for example both National and Dulles airports are in Virginia, but they are called "Washington, DC". A lot of that debate is by people who don't want to credit anything to Bridgeport.

Sikorsky airport is actually owned by the city of Bridgeport, which is the cause for the confusion.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by andthentherewere3

I can't keep up with all the predictions here for dire frigid temps and snow this week, but watching weather forecasts on the old fashioned TV I keep seeing little chance of accumulating snow forecast for Wednesday. The Euro model is predicting rain in Ct. The bitter cold Sunday is not supposed to last more than a few days. So while some of you cling to the dramatic forecast, I'm rooting for rain.

Snow not withstanding... Danbury tomorrow ..high 28 wind gusts in the 30's ?? That's amazing for November 23rd..

As a barometer comparison. If this was mid January.. it would be a high of 14...... so yes we see it but still quite a cold day.

[TobinJ]

I know we have a lot of lurkers in this thread so let me jump in to say please please please don't use your fireplace unless you properly maintain (clean, check lining) and know how to start a fire (down drafts snuff fire, open window, don't use lighter fluid). I woke up to fire engines screaming up the mountain to assist the volunteers. If you absolutely must run your fireplace and it's not prepared, have a fire extinguisher charged and ready and plan an escape route and meeting place with your family. Make sure your holidays around the hearth stay happy.