[Cambium]

NWS saying sustained winds of over 25mph is possible now with gusts over 40mph. I honestly dont see that happening because it strengthens too late but it might be possible north of CT.

After the main low passes us a series of lows along the front will continue to affect us which could produce severe whether.

Temps normal through this period, then back to below normal after front passes Thursday.

Here's the 3 models for Tuesday afternoon/Night. They still differ in timing. Euro is the slowest bringing the heavier rains in for early Wed. Morning.



I'm going to stress the point, this is not a flooding rain situation, its not a lot of rain! But if there's an area of convection or thunderstorm than a lot of rain can fall within that area.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Cambium

GFS was right bringing 40s into CT.
Euro was wrong keeping 50s here. Current temps.

I hit 49.5 as the bottom. Colored background is the 5000's layer above our heads (850mb temps). Light blue is single digit Celcius

One note that seems worth mentioning about temps (in any season) is that keep in mind that many (not all) of those lower temps in western CT (from northern FFC right up to the MA state line) occur at some elevation. That map shows a low of 45 F somewhere near Waterbury it looks like – that is on the rather rugged higher areas of the state. My low was only 51.4 F (look at your own low near 50 F). So elevation plays a big role here I think. I’ll bet the beaches in New London never fell below 55 F (SST are still near 70 F).

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Interesting how somehow LaGuardia was still over 60 when no one else was......I've noticed that in recent decades (but not in its earlier days up to perhaps the 1980s) not only does it have warmer low temperatures than Central Park (which if it was the warmest I'd explain as an extreme 'urban heat island' effect) but that it often is the warmest low temp until you get to Virginia or sometimes North Carolina for some reason I can't fathom......for example, I checked and the nearest places to match LGA's low this morning were Reagan Airport just south of DC and Norfolk and Virginia Beach in VA.

My guess is that maybe we underestimate the power of the warm Atlantic; Keep in mind that LaGuardia is not that from the ocean (or the Sound). When you check points south into the Mid Atlantic do you check coastal stations? (Atlantic City, Ocean City, VA Beach…etc). I'll bet the lows are warmer in Sailsbury or Ocean City, MD than in Washington, DC (maybe)...and Atlantic City had warmer lows than say Philly. I would be curious . Still, no doubt that the massive NYC metro heat island still plays a role as well however.

Otherwise, another nice day is on tap for today - ….sunny, dry, and in the 70’s F (another coolish night tonight too….40’s inland near 50 F at the coast). Same for the early part of the week. By mid week, showers should pull through on Tue/Wed (looking weaker now), then high pressure returns to finish out this week. Temps should be seasonable with highs into the 70's and 50's lows. So far it has been a nice pattern to finish out summer 2012.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

One note that seems worth mentioning about temps (in any season) is that keep in mind that many (not all) of those lower temps in western CT (from northern FFC right up to the MA state line) occur at some elevation. That map shows a low of 45 F somewhere near Waterbury it looks like – that is on the rather rugged higher areas of the state. My low was only 51.4 F (look at your own low near 50 F). So elevation plays a big role here I think. I’ll bet the beaches in New London never fell below 55 F (SST are still near 70 F).

Groton/New London dropped to 51 last night.

Also note, Hartford elevation is 13 feet. lmao. And it showed 52 (51 as the low). But interior plays a big role as we know. But elevation wasnt a big factor as we may think.

Groton ( 9 feet above SL) National Weather Service : Observed Weather for past 3 Days : Groton / New London Airport
Hartford(13 feet above SL) National Weather Service : Observed Weather for past 3 Days : Hartford-Brainard Airport

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Groton/New London dropped to 51 last night.

Also note, Hartford elevation is 13 feet. lmao. And it showed 52 (51 as the low). But interior plays a big role as we know. But elevation wasnt a big factor as we may think.

Groton ( 9 feet above SL) National Weather Service : Observed Weather for past 3 Days : Groton / New London Airport
Hartford(13 feet above SL) National Weather Service : Observed Weather for past 3 Days : Hartford-Brainard Airport

Danbury area 44 this morning. No elevation really

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Groton/New London dropped to 51 last night.

Also note, Hartford elevation is 13 feet. lmao. And it showed 52 (51 as the low). But interior plays a big role as we know. But elevation wasnt a big factor as we may think.

Groton ( 9 feet above SL) National Weather Service : Observed Weather for past 3 Days : Groton / New London Airport
Hartford(13 feet above SL) National Weather Service : Observed Weather for past 3 Days : Hartford-Brainard Airport

Keep in mind that the NWS reporting station at Groton New London Airport is more than 1 mile from the coast. Since I live along the eastern Connecticut coast – the Tweed and GNL reporting stations have always been of great interest to me. I would make a good bet that areas in New London right on the coast like the Ocean Beach area never fell below 55 F. This time of year the overall temps are so warm that the difference between coastal plain and inland at elevation is not great. Check the differences on those extreme mornings in late January when Tweed or GNL reports a low of 15 F….and Danbury, Waterbury, or Torrington fall to 15 below zero. From what I have seen – there is a huge difference between low temps in CT with relation to elevation (though weaker this time of year). Coastal CT is zone 7 ….while there is a small area in the higher elevations of NW CT that is only zone 5.



One other note…instrument housing and exposure can often play a big role in temps as you know. I just look at my own meters: I have two spots on my property that I record min/max temps….a north side exposure and southeast side exposures (instrument is in a shade shelter – but the shelter is in sunlight nearly all day). I only use the southeast temp to keep track of what my plants are feeling (I grow several subtropical plants on the south side). My low on my north side was the 51.4 F I mentioned above – yet the low on my south side was 57.9 F last night (already 74 F now… headed toward 85 F today I’d guess). So exposure itself can make a huge difference in temp readings.

As those of us who are into gardening and climate often say...the real proof between any two geographic areas are what grows there long term: The photo below is a Windmill palm that I have been growing for 5 years here on the coast (taken last winter - its even bigger now after the heat this summer). They can handle about 0 to 5 F for a brief few hrs, only hardy to zone 7:





Here is a picture of Vivax Bamboo (hardy to only zone 7) that grows near New London Ocean Beach.


I doubt you'd ever find any of this stuff growing in western/northwestern CT( Danbury, Waterbury, or up in the NW Hills of CT).

Now it's off to the beach again...I can't get enough

[andthentherewere3]

We went on a boat tour of the Thimble Islands this summer, and at least one of the homes had planted Palm trees on their island. I am wondering how those will do over the winter, or maybe they were planning on digging them up and storing them over the winter? Still, it's interesting what will grow along the shoreline, and our climate has warmed up in recent years allowing plants to grow that wouldn't decades ago.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

My guess is that maybe we underestimate the power of the warm Atlantic; Keep in mind that LaGuardia is not that from the ocean (or the Sound). When you check points south into the Mid Atlantic do you check coastal stations? (Atlantic City, Ocean City, VA Beach…etc). I'll bet the lows are warmer in Sailsbury or Ocean City, MD than in Washington, DC (maybe)...and Atlantic City had warmer lows than say Philly. I would be curious . Still, no doubt that the massive NYC metro heat island still plays a role as well however.

You're partially right, but LGA tends to be warmer than even AC and Ocean City, MD at night (AC (Atlantic City) a weird case though, they have a small old airport right on the water that is as warm as LGA, but they usually report the much cooler night temps from the newer airport 10 miles inland, which often has the COLDEST lows that region much like you describe about Groton vs. Tweed). Also, why I can't believe it's all the ocean is I would think JFK would have the same effect and it often has slightly lower nighttime lows than LGA or even Central Park (it usually has higher nighttime humidities though, which does reflect the ocean).

Originally Posted by Cambium

Was going to post about mid Week Storm but let me reply to this first real quick.... Want to see something more interesting. .

Last night. LGA in NYC was near 70 degrees while I was at 53 in Fairfield County.

Notice the 60s around NYC and low 50s not too far from there.

I actually laugh when I see those "warming" graphs around those areas. Almost comical. It never stayed this warm in the past before concrete, population, and airplanes!

I see on that map a bit of the "effect" around Boston and Philly too. But what I find more interesting is LGA vs. even CPK and the other station in or immediately near (i.e. Newark) the 5 boros. But I'll stop there since this is a CT weather forum..... (I guess I got to spend more time I don't have on the CD general weather forums....)

[Cambium]

Todays Official Lows:

MMK : MERIDEN : 44
DXR: DANBURY : 45
IJD : WILLIMANTIC: 47
BDL : BRADLEY INTL : 49
HVN : NEW HAVEN AIRPORT : 49
HFD : HARTFORD : 50
GON : GROTON : 50
BDR : BRIDGEPORT : 52

National Weather Service Text Product Display
http://forecast.weather.gov/product....n=1&glossary=0

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by andthentherewere3

We went on a boat tour of the Thimble Islands this summer, and at least one of the homes had planted Palm trees on their island. I am wondering how those will do over the winter, or maybe they were planning on digging them up and storing them over the winter? Still, it's interesting what will grow along the shoreline, and our climate has warmed up in recent years allowing plants to grow that wouldn't decades ago.

I’ve seen the palms on the Thimble Islands several times. That captain of the boat tour (assuming you went on the Thimble Islands Cruise) is really an interesting character – in the best fun sense of an old salty pirate like Jimmy Buffet– lol. He is quite knowledgeable about the history of the Connecticut coast and Long island and the effects of hurricane of 1938.

As far as the palms …from what I know of it, those huge (like 60 feet tall) feather palms you see are true subtropical palms that only would live in Florida year round. They dig them up (these are obviously extremely affluent families living here) and store them in their heated greenhouses. The other smaller palms you see growing (on money Island I think) are Tracycarpus – a temperate climate palm you see in many zone 7 areas on the both the Pacific and Atlantic coast of the USA, as well as in parts of southern/central Europe (the same one I have growing pictured above). They stay in the ground year round, but in bad winters they lose some of their fronds. However, they grow so fast from April through November that the slough off the dead fronds. Again, the Connecticut/Long Island/New Jersey coast is about the limit they can survive long term on the East Coast from what I’ve read. You really start to see more of them from Ocean City (MD) southward

As far as things getting warm enough that things that would grow years ago (even along the shoreline) now will grow…you know the deal – that gets into that old global warming debate again – who really knows what to think.