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Old 09-26-2012, 08:38 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wavehunter007 View Post
Yes, you were right, I was thinking the 24th was the last of mean highs in the 70's...but it looks like we still have 48 hrs - lol.

As to the pattern - yes, the proximity of polar front and subtropical jet are interesting to see …but as you must know truly a fleeting situation this time of year. If you look at the upper-level pattern that will emerge going into this weekend – it looks like the jet stream will once again retreat well to the north. The upper level low you see in the Great Lakes sooner or later (more likley sooner) will get shoved eastward and offshore. Once that happens - that warm and dry air streaking across the Plains in the coming days will warm everyone downstream all the way to the East Coast. The only cool(ish) fall type highs (50’s ) look like they will be confined upper Great Lakes – otherwise upper 60’s and 70’s for most areas next week:


So I think light showers today, sunshine returns on Thur, then the weakening front stalls out for the weekend, with a mix of light showers and peaks of sun and semi warm temps near 70 F. Then high pressure, sunny skies, and rather warm temps (both day and night) for much of next week. Put another way….I think that "Fall in New England" theme they try to push quite hard at Channel 8 Weather might be a tough sell next week, esp below Boston.


.
Average high next week in NYC should be about 70... Its going to be SEASONAL..... not a shock. In fact after Wednesday all models show a cool down for the following weekend.

 
Old 09-26-2012, 09:26 AM
 
Location: USA East Coast
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jp03 View Post
Average high next week in NYC should be about 70... Its going to be SEASONAL..... not a shock. In fact after Wednesday all models show a cool down for the following weekend.

I think the folks at NOAA see it a little different:




A = Above normal
 
Old 09-26-2012, 10:31 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,511 posts, read 75,269,804 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wavehunter007 View Post
I think the folks at NOAA see it a little different:
A = Above normal
?? Wrong map?

lol. Noaa has us under "Normal" with that map you posted.. In other words... "Seasonal".
 
Old 09-26-2012, 10:40 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
?? Wrong map?

lol. Noaa has us under "Normal" with that map you posted.. In other words... "Seasonal".
exactly .............. SEASONAL.. But I think that cold air in the middle of the country will make its way here by the following weekend..temps should not crack mid 60's during the day. The cool down i suggest is off of the slightly above normal highs of mid week next week.

Last edited by jp03; 09-26-2012 at 10:54 AM..
 
Old 09-26-2012, 11:14 AM
 
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all forecast sites i use say rain and cool this weekend......
 
Old 09-26-2012, 11:18 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mixum View Post
all forecast sites i use say rain and cool this weekend......
Yep...this debate is for the following week and weekend. Showery this week/ end for sure.
 
Old 09-26-2012, 03:28 PM
 
Location: USA East Coast
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I guess we have to give the Weather Channel credit this month - they were correct: Much of the area in yellow was above normal once again:





They will come out with their October forecast in the next few days...
 
Old 09-26-2012, 04:12 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,511 posts, read 75,269,804 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wavehunter007 View Post
I guess we have to give the Weather Channel credit this month - they were correct: Much of the area in yellow was above normal once again:

They will come out with their October forecast in the next few days...
If you're talking about CT to stay on topic, Yes... they were right... But this is how the country looks for departures for September so far... LEFT PICTURE. Now compare it to their map. Were they right? Greens are below normal.


 
Old 09-26-2012, 05:27 PM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,429 posts, read 10,361,630 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
If you're talking about CT to stay on topic, Yes... they were right... But this is how the country looks for departures for September so far... LEFT PICTURE. Now compare it to their map. Were they right? Greens are below normal.

No doubt the cool shot in mid month into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes gave them those big departures. However, I wouldn't be shocked if even they ended September above normal when they average out the whole month. I guess we'll have to wait to see.

But to stay on topic (CT weather) yes, September 2012 will end as year another above normal month in the Tri-State area (NYNY, NJ, CT).
 
Old 09-26-2012, 05:39 PM
 
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I will not be above normal unless we dramatically warm up.
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