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Old 09-27-2012, 04:34 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,500 posts, read 75,234,500 times
Reputation: 16619

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This is why your forecasts change and why we need to stay on top of things, models have done a complete turn around. It's showing more dry then wet this weekend now and mild. And also has rain moving in Thursday/Friday as opposed to being dry for a week.

So lets call it, chance of showers today through Saturday some will be HEAVY and some can be thunderstorms. We dry out Monday through Wednesday.

Upton.
THE 00Z CYCLE HAS DONE A COMPLETE ABOUT FACE WITH THE UPCOMING
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND...WITH LESS OF A CHANCE OF RAIN...AND A
BETTER CHANCE OF DRY...MILD CONDITIONS

NO LONGER ARE THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE SURFACE FRONT IS NOW DISPLACED WELL OFFSHORE AND TO THE EAST. IN
ADDITION...THE DIGGING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SEEMS TO BE
FAR ENOUGH REMOVED TO PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS SAT AND SUN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE HILLS NORTH
AND WEST OF NYC.

 
Old 09-27-2012, 05:07 AM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,429 posts, read 10,358,603 times
Reputation: 2157
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
This is why your forecasts change and why we need to stay on top of things, models have done a complete turn around. It's showing more dry then wet this weekend now and mild. And also has rain moving in Thursday/Friday as opposed to being dry for a week.

So lets call it, chance of showers today through Saturday some will be HEAVY and some can be thunderstorms. We dry out Monday through Wednesday.
Yea, I saw that too.

Not surprised however, they are starting to pick up on the pattern shift this weekend. It looks like at least the first week of October will be mild and warm for much of the USA...the jet stays to our north...and the cold(ish) air stays locked up in Canada: Here is what the WC is calling for going into the weekend and all of next week.




My low last night was only 64.9 F - about 11 F above normal.

I guess Channel 8 Weather is going to have to put those fall graphics they want to use so bad on hold for another week. Steve and Gil didn't look happy last night and this morning.
 
Old 09-27-2012, 05:47 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,500 posts, read 75,234,500 times
Reputation: 16619




Bridgeport was 13 degrees above normal with yesterdays low temp. No wonder why my a/c ran all night.
What extremes we have here in the state, huh? Can't it just be normal for like 7 days straight? LOL

NAM calling for 80s today, I dont believe that if its cloudy. NAM has been too warm lately.

 
Old 09-27-2012, 11:14 AM
 
10,006 posts, read 11,151,702 times
Reputation: 6303
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post




Bridgeport was 13 degrees above normal with yesterdays low temp. No wonder why my a/c ran all night.
What extremes we have here in the state, huh? Can't it just be normal for like 7 days straight? LOL

NAM calling for 80s today, I dont believe that if its cloudy. NAM has been too warm lately.

Was a humid warm night last night..thought the a/c was done for good....nope.
 
Old 09-27-2012, 03:13 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,500 posts, read 75,234,500 times
Reputation: 16619
Default Dewpoint Contrast!

One word.... "WOW". Look at the dew point differences.

The difference of being near I-95 and I-91 is incredible right now. It's a matter of breathing in nicely in one spot and needing a/c in another spot.

 
Old 09-27-2012, 05:26 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,500 posts, read 75,234,500 times
Reputation: 16619
Uptons rain totals tomorrow.

 
Old 09-28-2012, 07:23 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,500 posts, read 75,234,500 times
Reputation: 16619
Current OBS in CT at 9am. Still Low-Mid 50s in Northern tier. Lets see if we get into the 60s at least.

Very heavy rains over NYC/Westchester moving into Fairfield County now. Feels Chilly.



 
Old 09-28-2012, 09:31 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,500 posts, read 75,234,500 times
Reputation: 16619
Default Heavy Rains 9/28/12

Seeing poor drainage flooding areas! Heavy rains coming down in Fairfield County. Thundering now.

Not liking how that area looks over LI Sound. Wow.
 
Old 09-28-2012, 09:32 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,500 posts, read 75,234,500 times
Reputation: 16619
On that note.

1127 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
FAIRFIELD COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...
WESTCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
* UNTIL 100 PM EDT...

* AT 1122 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOODING FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WARNED AREA. RAINFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AND ADDITIONAL 1
TO 1.5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN
AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.
 
Old 09-28-2012, 09:45 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,500 posts, read 75,234,500 times
Reputation: 16619
Lightning now and temp drop to 58 degrees.
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