[JayCT]

Originally Posted by Henry10

CT got a one-time shot-in-the-arm with NYers moving to cheaper CT plus Feds flooding the money pit, but I have full confidence in CT to squander this windfall.

There is nothing right now that has changed the underlining fundamentals of CT's economic behavior, which remain quite rotten.

Actually quite the opposite -- such windfall is disconnecting CT voters & their politicians from repercussions of their decisions.

Well, what have you done to try to change that? Have you contacted your local legislators to voice your opinion? I swear mine cringe when I contact them which has become fairly often. Often enough that my State Rep even came by my house before the election to meet me in person. My point is, a lot of people complain but few actually do anything but that. Jay

[BobNJ1960]

Originally Posted by Old Dominionite

I agree with all of the points above about Connecticut's current prospects relative to its neighbors and some real opportunities to pivot and make the state truly competitive once again.

Unfortunately, Connecticut's largest nemesis is its own state legislature -- full of many people who can't (or refuse) to see the bigger picture.

Amen. One named Looney seems so appropriately named.

[CTartist]

Originally Posted by Henry10

So instead of blaming CT's voters who vote for politicians who are ruining the state (for quite some time), you are blaming people who leave CT? These escapees are exhibiting rational economic behavior. What's is irrational, un-emancipated, un-enlighted, uncivilized is the mindset of a SUBJECT that a swath of society who vote for these temporary politicians causing permanent damage to CT.

NO...... not blaming the people who leave and they have a right to do that. Look, there are two parties and different thoughts on how to run things. I am an Independent Centrist but the facts are the facts. See below. Just pointing out facts.

GDP Per Capita (measures real wealth)
Let's look at this chart again. This is a long span.
https://ssti.org/blog/useful-stats-c...duct-1998-2018

1998......................2018
#4.........................#1 NY
#8.........................#2 MA
#1.........................#3 AK
#4.........................#4 CT (The land of education and steady habits)
#18.......................#5 CA (Tech boom baby)

#14.......................#15 TX
#31.......................#37 TN
#34.......................#41 FL (what is so great about this?)
#24.......................#35 NC
#40.......................#46 SC

"politicians who are ruining the state"
So you think CT being in the top 5 for GDP per capita is ruining the state? Do you think having your GDP Per Capita GO DOWN over the last 20 years like the southern states I noted is good?

"These escapees are exhibiting rational economic behavior."
Most of the people who are moving are retired baby boomers who are going to warmer climates as they have done for generations (well over 100 years). It is just more visible now because the peak of the baby boomers are retiring. I know because my husband was born at the peak of the baby boom and he retired last year. Many of his contemporaries are moving down south or getting second homes down south AFTER WORKING THIER WHOLE LIVES IN CT MAKING BIG MONEY so they can have two homes.

[BobNJ1960]

Originally Posted by CTartist

NO...... not blaming the people who leave and they have a right to do that. Look, there are two parties and different thoughts on how to run things. I am an Independent Centrist but the facts are the facts. See below. Just pointing out facts.

GDP Per Capita (measures real wealth)
Let's look at this chart again. This is a long span.
https://ssti.org/blog/useful-stats-c...duct-1998-2018

1998......................2018
#4.........................#1 NY
#8.........................#2 MA
#1.........................#3 AK
#4.........................#4 CT (The land of education and steady habits)
#18.......................#5 CA (Tech boom baby)

#14.......................#15 TX
#31.......................#37 TN
#34.......................#41 FL (what is so great about this?)
#24.......................#35 NC
#40.......................#46 SC

"politicians who are ruining the state"

So you think CT being in the top 5 for GDP per capita is ruining the state? Do you think having your GDP Per Capita GO DOWN over the last 20 years like the southern states I noted is good?

"These escapees are exhibiting rational economic behavior."

Most of the people who are moving are retired baby boomers who are going to warmer climates as they have done for generations (well over 100 years). It is just more visible now but the peak of the baby boomers are retiring. I know because my husband was born at the peak of the baby boom and he retired last year. Many of his contemporaries are moving down south or getting second homes down south AFTER WORKING THIER WHOLE LIVES IN CT MAKING BIG MONEY so they can have two homes.

We do , most years, lose more non retiree years residents to other states than we take in. New immigrants sometimes overcome the shortfall, but losing state-state should be a concern we share. Its not a good thing. With some states like NY messing up, covid presents a golden opportunity to change our ways, and the pattern IMO. A one time opportunity..miss it and regret it.

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by JayCT

I’m not sure where you got that figure but I think it is incorrect. Please provide the source.

The figures we’ve been looking at are old, dating back two or more years. Let’s look at 2020. In 2020 the US GDP shrank by 3.5%. Connecticut’s economy shrank by 4.1% which was better than New York’s (-5.9%) and Rhode Island (-4.5%) and only marginally worse than Massachusetts (-3.8%). In fact, in the fourth quarter of 2020, Connecticut’s economy grew at the 4th fastest rate in the country (+7%). So what does all this show? Just what I’ve been saying, NOT MUCH. We still have among the highest per capita GDP’s in country. Jay

https://www.courant.com/business/hc-...y74-story.html

I provided a link a few pages back to the data crunched by one of the CD data wonks. Not my source but he cited BEA data as his source.


Here are links to Stastista per-capita GDP graphs for Connecticut and Massachusetts using 2012 dollars.


https://www.statista.com/statistics/...dp-per-capita/
Connecticut peaked at $74,031 pre-Great Recession. $69,879 in 2019 pre-COVID.


https://www.statista.com/statistics/...dp-per-capita/
Massachusetts barely glitched in the Great Recession and is now $75,258 as of 2019 pre-COVID.


So in inflation-adjusted dollars, Massachusetts has been growing like a weed. Connecticut hasn't recovered. Do any level of extrapolation on those two graphs and you have an enormous gap in another decade. At some point, you lose critical mass. In a high cost of living state, you need a reason for businesses to want to locate there. Massachusetts has critical mass in tech and biotech. It's not the Bay Area but it long ago hit critical mass and corporations who want top people have no option but the pay the price.

[CTartist]

Here is another statistic I keep looking up.

States with highest ratio of millionaire households per capita in 2020
https://www.kiplinger.com/slideshow/...ked/index.html

1 NJ
2 MD
3 CT
4 MA
5 HI


"Connecticut's Stamford metro area, which includes Norwalk and Bridgeport, has the fourth-highest concentration of millionaires in the U.S. Some are wealthy commuters who make their livings in the Big Apple. Others made their fortunes closer to home. The southwest corner of the state is the base for many hedge funds and prominent public companies.

Torrington, the largest town in Litchfield County – which has long been a popular retreat for Manhattan's wealthy and chic looking for a remote, mountainous getaway – also has more than its fair share of the well-to-do."

GO STAMFORD GO!!!!!!

[JayCT]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

I provided a link a few pages back to the data crunched by one of the CD data wonks. Not my source but he cited BEA data as his source.


Here are links to Stastista per-capita GDP graphs for Connecticut and Massachusetts using 2012 dollars.


https://www.statista.com/statistics/...dp-per-capita/
Connecticut peaked at $74,031 pre-Great Recession. $69,879 in 2019 pre-COVID.


https://www.statista.com/statistics/...dp-per-capita/
Massachusetts barely glitched in the Great Recession and is now $75,258 as of 2019 pre-COVID.


So in inflation-adjusted dollars, Massachusetts has been growing like a weed. Connecticut hasn't recovered. Do any level of extrapolation on those two graphs and you have an enormous gap in another decade. At some point, you lose critical mass. In a high cost of living state, you need a reason for businesses to want to locate there. Massachusetts has critical mass in tech and biotech. It's not the Bay Area but it long ago hit critical mass and corporations who want top people have no option but the pay the price.

I missed where you posted that. So that growth rate you posted was for a 19 year period. That makes more sense. So how does Connecticut’s per capita GDP compare to the US? My guess is it compares similarly.

That said, it still changes nothing. Connecticut’s per capita GDP still keeps in the Top 5 where it’s been for a long time. Jay

[JayCT]

Originally Posted by BobNJ1960

We do , most years, lose more non retiree years residents to other states than we take in. New immigrants sometimes overcome the shortfall, but losing state-state should be a concern we share. Its not a good thing. With some states like NY messing up, covid presents a golden opportunity to change our ways, and the pattern IMO. A one time opportunity..miss it and regret it.

Where do you get that we lose more non retiree residents than we take in? I hope not those flawed “reports” by moving companies. We’ve discussed why those are not accurate at all. I think the last year has permanently changed that. Jay

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by JayCT

I missed where you posted that. So that growth rate you posted was for a 19 year period. That makes more sense. So how does Connecticut’s per capita GDP compare to the US? My guess is it compares similarly.

That said, it still changes nothing. Connecticut’s per capita GDP still keeps in the Top 5 where it’s been for a long time. Jay

Without growth, the looming unfunded pension problem and the rest of the list swallows the state budget. No option but to both slash services and raise taxes. Massachusetts has the same problems but they are growing their way out of the worst of it. A 5% flat state income tax and Proposition 2 1/2 have constrained spending since the late-1970.

[BobNJ1960]

Originally Posted by JayCT

Where do you get that we lose more non retiree residents than we take in? I hope not those flawed “reports” by moving companies. We’ve discussed why those are not accurate at all. I think the last year has permanently changed that. Jay

Moving companies have the best data. They have no "dog in the hunt". Just a business. Great data today in where people are fleeing and going in this terrific column. Most of it is here online. I read the full column in the actual paper an hour ago.

https://nypost.com/2021/05/01/covid-...e-saved-lives/