[Brian26]

24 here. Wow! The cold is coming. Latest Euro is unbelievable if it verifies.

AM NOTING H85 TEMPS DIPPING TO AN AVERAGE OF -15 TO -18C BY 00Z FRI SUGGESTING TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE 20S DURING THE DAY THU. IN ESSENCE...A PERIOD OF DRY BUT ANOMALOUSLY COLD...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW MID DEC NORMS.

[Cambium]

Current Map. Cold air in place this time. 24° here this morning. Now we just need the precip before the warm push from the south.

Precip breaking out as light snow and rain down in Virginias.



Current Watches and Warnings Map. All 8 Counties in CT under Winter advisory.



Snow total forecast. Generally 1-3 inches across the state. Use link for updates this image will refresh.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/gis/images/OKX_Snow.png

[7 Wishes]

Interesting that Upton used a range in their snow maps, because unlike Albany and Boston they usually show exact amounts, even if it's only 1/10"

NWS forecasts seem to show this mainly being wintry tonight and into the very early morning. For NYC they actually say all rain by 1-3am. Even Danbury's is now showing rain by sunrise (originally it said not until noon tomorrow). Have a feeling most of us (in terms of commuting tomorrow) are going to 'luck out' with this one, but we'll see......looks cautious for anyone traveling anywhere tonight though.

[markfromct]

Channel 3 Technical discussion:

From 9 PM Sunday until approximately 9 AM Monday, we will likely have a wintry mix arriving from the southwest. Developing around the New Haven, Bridgeport, Waterbury areas first, snow and/or sleet will likely develop and then move northeast, overtaking the entire state by around midnight. We anticipate mainly light and moderate sleet or snow at the onset before a transition to more of a sleet/freezing rain precipitation occurs only 1-3 hours later. By the time most of us are awake and beginning our Monday rituals between 6 and 8 AM, temperatures will be going above 32°F everywhere, changing the icing over to sprinkles and mist. Roads will still be slippery and/or slushy in many places, slowing us down.



So how much snow and ice are we expecting? Right now (reserving the guilt-free right to amend since it's still early), it looks like much of the state will receive a slushy coating up to 1". North and northwest or Hartford along the Massachusetts border may receive more, perhaps 2"+/-. I am hesitant to call for more right now because I see what the national weather service also has seen in the forecast soundings: meager moisture at altitudes where the temperature is premium for snow crystals to grow. So, any snowy period would be light and brief and may even be mixed with mist before the quick change to glazing. We'll see…brass tax: the main problem with this storm is its timing during morning rush hour, not impressive snow output. It simply has the potential to be a nuisance for a lot of us.

[Cambium]

1-3" is general idea before washing away. Morning commute will be fine.

Here's the current radar and temps. Snowing "south" of us. Working its way up. Should be here by 5pm.

20s still in CT near 30 near the shore.

[Tubeworm]

Are school delays likely tomorrow morning, considering this would be our first real wintery commute of the season?

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Tubeworm

Are school delays likely tomorrow morning, considering this would be our first real wintery commute of the season?

Watching the latest updates. Hi-Res NAM says Ice still around 6-8am so if that's true that would mean yes, delays... but I'm going to say No for now.. Should be fine after 6am..

This is a NowCast event. meaning we just have to see whats happening and go by that. Tricky.

Here's the latest. Hi Res NAM showing scatted Ice still around in the morning."scattered". Regular NAM and HRW showing ice and sleet still around in CT also. GFS has it rain by 7am

[Cambium]

12z Hi-Res NAM snow depth at 10am Monday morning.

Not sure I believe the half foot west of us but the Hi-res models pick up the higher elevations. I can see 2-4 in those areas of CT. But notice it has generally 0-2". I think 1-3" across CT is safe to say so roads should be fine unless we get the heavy stuff to come down and make them slick. Not a big event but the first widespread snow event for us.

[Cambium]

For those interested in seeing whats happening down south I have an entire thread going here since 3 days ago.

Whats nice about this setup is we can see whats coming by looking south of us. There's a heavy snow band setting up west to east across Maryland and NJ with heavy snow and visibilities reduced to 1/4 mile.

If this continues Upton will have to raise the amounts a bit

[Cambium]

NWS Upton

"The closest snow report to our area is down in the Philly metro. Should see snow break out from SW to NE this afternoon."

https://twitter.com/NWSNewYorkNY/sta...27666217295873

Different look this time... cold air not budging. High pressure over New England. Check your barometers. What does it say.