[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

So I know the models trended north today with the snow shield for Sunday-Monday but I didn't expect CPC to be on board already. Being they highlighted that area we have to watch if models continue to trend north and het us with the heavy stuff.

CPC Highlights area of Heavy Snow for this Sunday-Monday. Read discussion with link. Mentions timing is crucial for accumulations.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats_ie.php

So lets see, snow misses us to the south 3/3/14
Snow misses us to the north 3/12/14

Will it hit us or miss to the south 3/17?? Crazy




THE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE TEXAS COAST IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AS IT DOES, IT IS FORECAST TO SPREAD HEAVY RAIN FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. FARTHER NORTH THE PRECIPITATION WILL ENCOUNTER A FRESH CANADIAN AIR MASS, RAISING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LATE SEASON ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT. AT THIS TIME, A SWATH OF 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE TIMING WITH INFLUENCE POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS, HOWEVER. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON, CONTINUING INTO THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. IN ORDER FOR SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR, THE SNOW MUST FALL DURING THE EVENING HOURS OR LATER, OR ELSE MARCH SUN ANGLES WILL PROHIBIT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. HOWEVER, TIMING AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN.

Climatology says a St. Patrick's Day snowstorm (at least in Central Park, and this is with 145 years of record) would be historic, here's the top 5 snowiest St. Patty's there:

Snowiest
1967 3.0" (record for date)
1960 1.4"
1965 1.1"
1993 0.8"
2004 0.5"

[Tubeworm]

Snow cover update-- This looks like a rough estimate/average:


Connecticut's Extreme Weather Home | WXedge.com | Snow Depth Update 3/13/14

[BPt111]

This model just released look like Central NJ, SNJ, NYC getting significant snow CT coastline is on northern edge for it
CMC/GFS/NAM continue a snow threat Sunday-Monday. We are 3 days away.

Originally Posted by Cambium

So I know the models trended north today with the snow shield for Sunday-Monday but I didn't expect CPC to be on board already. Being they highlighted that area we have to watch if models continue to trend north and het us with the heavy stuff.

CPC Highlights area of Heavy Snow for this Sunday-Monday. Read discussion with link. Mentions timing is crucial for accumulations.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats_ie.php

So lets see, snow misses us to the south 3/3/14
Snow misses us to the north 3/12/14

Will it hit us or miss to the south 3/17?? Crazy




THE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE TEXAS COAST IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AS IT DOES, IT IS FORECAST TO SPREAD HEAVY RAIN FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. FARTHER NORTH THE PRECIPITATION WILL ENCOUNTER A FRESH CANADIAN AIR MASS, RAISING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LATE SEASON ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT. AT THIS TIME, A SWATH OF 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE TIMING WITH INFLUENCE POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS, HOWEVER. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON, CONTINUING INTO THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. IN ORDER FOR SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR, THE SNOW MUST FALL DURING THE EVENING HOURS OR LATER, OR ELSE MARCH SUN ANGLES WILL PROHIBIT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. HOWEVER, TIMING AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN.

[Cambium]

6:30am Temps. Departures in bottom right. Can't believe its in the teens outside right now. Crazy.

The furthest south the temps in the teens are right now is NJ. In fact, most of CT is colder than any points west of Ohio. Meaning we're colder than Minnesota, Montana, ect



Noaa Forecast for Waterbury. Can't believe we're still talking about snow.

[Cambium]

Looking ahead.... GFS6z Data for northern CT.. No double digits (C°) in sight? No 50s. Anything past the 19th can flip obviously but to continue to see this is just amazing.

These aren't max temps but to say "not many 50s" in sight would be more accurate to say based on this. Looks like we have to root for April to be warm. March looks like either a rollercoast up and down or staying on the cool side.

Plus we got snow coming on the 17th-19th.

[andthentherewere3]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Plus we got snow coming on the 17th-19th.

I'm really at the point where I don't take these predictions seriously anymore. I don't mean your predictions, but the weather forecasts in general. It seems the last several snow predictions didn't come to fruition, and it being March just call me skeptical. Or maybe ignorance is bliss.

[mels]

Originally Posted by andthentherewere3

I'm really at the point where I don't take these predictions seriously anymore. I don't mean your predictions, but the weather forecasts in general. It seems the last several snow predictions didn't come to fruition, and it being March just call me skeptical. Or maybe ignorance is bliss.

I'm with you. I will put my blinders on, enjoy tomorrow's mid-50s temps, then check back on Sunday to see what the deal is for Monday.

[grecostimpy]

Snow storm coming?

[Cambium]

lol, not just the ears, might have to close your eyes too..

The way I see it is we knew about the changes for 3/3 and 3/13 3 days before. (hmmm lots of 3s)

Here we are 3 days before and the north trend shouldn't be ignored. All models trended north so snows approach us now instead of just staying down south.

Now we watch and wait for how much is being shown. Temps fully will support snow. Unless this thing keeps going north which would mean rain for us I think we're getting snow Sunday night.

From NWS NY.

"SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER AMTS EXPECTED ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS. POLAR VORTEX OVER SE CANADA WILL PROVIDE THE COLD AIR FOR A SNOW EVENT

From NWS Boston.

"ARCTIC HIGH PRES SUGGESTS ONLY SNOWFALL...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DECENT RATIOS ASSUMING THE WARM CONVEYOR LIFT REMAINS WITHIN THE DENDRITIC REGIME...BUT THAT WILL HAVE TO BE IRONED OUT. DRY AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN FROM THE N WITH HIGH PRES...SO AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AREAS N OF THE MASS PIKE MAY STRUGGLE TO SEE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMS"

More technical from Boston

THE KEY WITH THE POLAR VORTEX WILL CULMINATE IN A DIGGING
SHORTWAVE TROF AND ATTENDANT COASTAL LOW PRES FOR SUN INTO MON. AS
MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THERE WAS INITIAL
DISAGREEMENT IN THE FINAL PLACEMENT OF 1030 ARCTIC HIGH
PRES...WHICH HAS BEEN SETTLED SOMEWHAT...SUGGESTING IT CRESTS
ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THIS IS THE NORTHERN SOLUTION. GIVEN
THE PHASING OF BOTH ARCTIC AND WRN CONUS ENERGY IS THE KEY TO THIS
LOW PRES INITIALIZATION/TRACK AND MOISTURE...IT APPEARS THE WRN
CONUS ENERGY WILL DOMINATE...DIGGING THE TROF FURTHER W AND
PULLING IN GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE

[Tubeworm]

CT isn't in the HWO, but this is for LI/NYC:

NWS New York

Hazardous Weather Outlook:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
430 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...NEW
YORK CITY AND IMMEDIATE SUBURBS...AND LONG ISLAND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING
HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. IT IS STILL
TOO EARLY TO PREDICT THE EXACT LOW TRACK AND INTENSITY...OR THE
RESULTING INTENSITY AND DURATION OF SNOWFALL.

11:30 AM Temps... struggling to warm up out of the 20's with the cloud cover lol. Wasn't it suppose to be in the 40's today?