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Old 11-08-2014, 04:03 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
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Want an idea?

Instead of 1 model frame map or a 5 day anomaly map, here's the full data for Danbury, CT for the entire GFS18z update.

1. Nice little warm up Tuesday & Wednesday. ENJOY IT. Grab a bottle and bottle it up. Breath in and soak it up.

2. After Thursday we drop...and it's not just a 1-3 day cold shot.This looks to feel cold next week and possibly stay cold for many many days. I personally seen this from experience. When the Polar Vortex drops in Canada we stay cold for weeks.

3. Normal 850mb temp is about 3C currently so it will be below freezing hence below normal temps at the surface.

4. Notice the numbers in the 6HR QPF precip column. That's snow Thursday night and Sunday night maybe. (still far out and can change)


 
Old 11-09-2014, 05:55 AM
 
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
11,298 posts, read 18,888,129 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by papafox View Post
Aren't you glad you switched jobs and no longer have to deal with that nightmare of a drive!!
I didn't realize you finally did, I remember there was a thread where you were debating it. Good for you!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post

4. Notice the numbers in the 6HR QPF precip column. That's snow Thursday night and Sunday night maybe. (still far out and can change)
NWS is actually saying snow for the entire tri-state area Thurs. night into Fri. morning, though they're hedging their bets and saying "30% chance". Not saying amounts but TV news at 11 last night emphasized it's "snow showers" at most which would reflect the low QPF's in your chart.
 
Old 11-09-2014, 06:28 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
Reputation: 16619
Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
NWS is actually saying snow for the entire tri-state area Thurs. night into Fri. morning, though they're hedging their bets and saying "30% chance". Not saying amounts but TV news at 11 last night emphasized it's "snow showers" at most which would reflect the low QPF's in your chart.
Yup, exactly, although that was 1 run but that's the gist of it still. Not a big thing at all unless the storm gets together and comes up close enough which they have recently so all eyes are peeled for it.

Whats crazy to say is that cold air will be in place for any precip to fall as snow. Are we in January that I can say that? Sounds weird to say for mid November


I'm in a stat mood. Wondering what you all want to know.

How about Top 7 November monthly total snowfall at BDR

2012: 8.4"
1989: 6.6"
1953: 5.4"
2002: 3.5"
1995: 2.6"
1978: 2.2"
1967: 2.1"


How about Max temp for November. It's never been above 78° at BDR

1975: 78
1950: 77
1968: 76
2003: 74
1965: 72
1961: 72
 
Old 11-09-2014, 04:36 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
Reputation: 16619
Anyone going to Winsted on November 10th? Go to NWS free training and get certified. Anyone can go.

http://cstar.cestm.albany.edu:7775/skywarn/Talks.htm


 
Old 11-10-2014, 04:27 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
Reputation: 16619
Looking at the latest it's hard to call snow on a marginal situation and without a big storm in perfect place so I wont mention it other than "chances" for some flakes Friday and Sunday. You know that could mean Sunny or Snow. lol

Can't stress it enough to get out there and enjoy the next 3 days. Goodbye 60s. Goodbye 50s?

No more 50s at least for the short term. We will struggle to get out of the 30s Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday. That's like normal December/February temps.

Good time to check or do maintenance on your boilers.

 
Old 11-10-2014, 11:24 AM
 
Location: Wallingford, CT
1,063 posts, read 1,363,010 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Looking at the latest it's hard to call snow on a marginal situation and without a big storm in perfect place so I wont mention it other than "chances" for some flakes Friday and Sunday. You know that could mean Sunny or Snow. lol

Can't stress it enough to get out there and enjoy the next 3 days. Goodbye 60s. Goodbye 50s?

No more 50s at least for the short term. We will struggle to get out of the 30s Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday. That's like normal December/February temps.

Good time to check or do maintenance on your boilers.
This winter might actually be the one that pushes me over the edge and tells me I should move someplace warmer.

I normally don't mind it in moderation. I just can't stomach another bad winter in a row. Hopefully we get this cold out of the way now and have a milder winter. Please?
 
Old 11-10-2014, 04:15 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
Reputation: 16619
Quote:
Originally Posted by Csiko View Post
This winter might actually be the one that pushes me over the edge and tells me I should move someplace warmer.

I normally don't mind it in moderation. I just can't stomach another bad winter in a row.
You and many others. It's pretty scary what I'm seeing right now. It doesn't happen in November often. The entire air mass is taking over a HUGE chunk of real estate in Canada and U.S.

Weather Patterns don't have a switch. They take time to change. That's why what you're seeing today is what we'll have for many weeks from now. All I can say is you're hope is for a change for 2nd half of winter. 1st half looking pretty impressive. We'll see.

Canadian and EURO models say light snow Friday morning.
GFS says no way Jose. Stays OTS.
 
Old 11-11-2014, 06:02 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
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Don't be shocked...

10th warmest November so far at the CT coast (BDR 1948).
11th warmest for northern CT(BDL) and that's since 1905!

Only 10 days in. Lets see if we can flip that the other way now. lol
 
Old 11-11-2014, 06:55 AM
 
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
11,298 posts, read 18,888,129 times
Reputation: 5126
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
You and many others. It's pretty scary what I'm seeing right now. It doesn't happen in November often. The entire air mass is taking over a HUGE chunk of real estate in Canada and U.S.

Weather Patterns don't have a switch. They take time to change. That's why what you're seeing today is what we'll have for many weeks from now. All I can say is you're hope is for a change for 2nd half of winter. 1st half looking pretty impressive. We'll see.

Canadian and EURO models say light snow Friday morning.
GFS says no way Jose. Stays OTS.
NWS now saying light rain except for mix around I-84 and points north. Ditto Sunday night into Monday.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Don't be shocked...

10th warmest November so far at the CT coast (BDR 1948).
11th warmest for northern CT(BDL) and that's since 1905!

Only 10 days in. Lets see if we can flip that the other way now. lol
It looks like it will "even out" with a prolonged period of cold. That stat is pretty astonishing given that we haven't really had anything approaching "record warm" days much and I didn't think the nighttime lows were THAT above normal this time....
 
Old 11-11-2014, 07:08 AM
 
3,350 posts, read 4,168,858 times
Reputation: 1946
Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
NWS now saying light rain except for mix around I-84 and points north. Ditto Sunday night into Monday.



It looks like it will "even out" with a prolonged period of cold. That stat is pretty astonishing given that we haven't really had anything approaching "record warm" days much and I didn't think the nighttime lows were THAT above normal this time....
I think we've been duped again--- my nighttime lows were forecast to be in the mid 40s for the past two mornings but most of us were probably closer to low to mid 30s.
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