[Cambium]

Overnight Canadian model shifts another 300 miles. Shows a Cat 2 type strength storm right over us Christmas day. Basically has the storm come up the coast and bomb out. 1002mb to 977mb within 24hr = an official bomb.

This scenario would be mild temps in the 40s/50s with high winds, hard downpours Wednesday night and then temps crash hard throughout Christmas morning and day as the storm is over us which changes to a heavy snow with blizzard conditions Christmas afternoon/evening.

What a mess.



GFS and Euro continue saying this storm is going to Great Lakes. Mild 50s and Rain for us.

[Cambium]

Upton: There's a Caveat

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
533 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014
WED...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS CONT FOR A STRONG MID
WEEK STORM TRACKING WEST OF THE AREA WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SE
WIND SWEPT HVY RAIN FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY ON
CHRISTMAS. LOW PRESSURE IS FCST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE TN/OH
VALLEYS TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WRAPPING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED
NIGHT INTO THU WITH PRESSURES APPROACHING 960 MB. THIS TRACK WOULD
KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND EVEN STRONG WINDS. THE CAVEAT HERE IS
THAT THE STORM IS ABOUT A WEEK AWAY WITH A LOT OF TIME FOR CHANGE IN
TRACK AND TIMING. IN ADDITION...THE FAST PAC FLOW WOULD LEAD ONE TO
BELIEVE THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE ENERGY.

Boston: Maybe Record High temps and Wind Advisory then change to snow.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
628 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

STRONG ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...DEVELOPING A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT AS THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
6 DAYS AWAY...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SHOW THAT THIS SYSTEM IS AROUND 2 TO
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A
POTENT STORM WILL OCCUR. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST PRECIP
WILL BE LIQUID WITH A DEEP SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION BACK ACROSS
MEXICO... PW ANOMALIES FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN +1 TO +3
/OR HIGHER/...AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. IN FACT WE MAY BE
CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO 60F OR ABOVE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE. AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP INTO CANADA...COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD CIRCULATE AROUND AND BEGIN A TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN TURNING P-TYPE TO SNOW.

THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE STRONG SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
URBAN FLOODING ISSUES AS WELL AS WIND ISSUES. GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS
SHOWING A 40 TO 50 KT JET AT 925 MB WHICH MAY WARRANT WIND
ADVISORIES BUT THIS SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE SO A STRONGER
JET IS POSSIBLE.

Philly: Will the tune change or will the same song keep playing? Canadian did change the Christmas song.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
436 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

WEDNESDAY...STILL WATCHING A LARGE LOW PRESSURE FORM TO OUR WEST AND
TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD KEEP OUR
REGION UNDER A WARMING THERMAL PROFILE WITH A LOT OF MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...AN ALL LIQUID EVENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS POINT. WHAT IS
INTERESTING WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS IS HOW THEY ARE SEEMINGLY
WEAKENING THE PRIMARY LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE LAKES ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER, STRONGER, PIECE OF PAC NW ENERGY TO PRODUCE CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. IF THIS EASTWARD TREND AND CYCLOGENESIS
CONTINUES WE COULD BE SINGING A DIFFERENT TUNE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. NONE-THE-LESS, LOTS OF MOISTURE, WINDS, AND POSSIBLY
CONVECTION, ARE LOOKING BETTER AND BETTER...WE CONTINUE THE LIKELY
POPS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.

[Cambium]

1.1" in Tolland this morning. I'm still waiting for mine. Brutal year.

Every year for past decade except a couple years I get it by end November/beginning of Dec at least! Not even an inch this year. Frustrating.

https://twitter.com/TollandKev

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Overnight Canadian model shifts another 300 miles. Shows a Cat 2 type strength storm right over us Christmas day. Basically has the storm come up the coast and bomb out. 1002mb to 977mb within 24hr = an official bomb.

This scenario would be mild temps in the 40s/50s with high winds, hard downpours Wednesday night and then temps crash hard throughout Christmas morning and day as the storm is over us which changes to a heavy snow with blizzard conditions Christmas afternoon/evening.

What a mess.



GFS and Euro continue saying this storm is going to Great Lakes. Mild 50s and Rain for us.

A very similar storm happened on Christmas Day 2002 (the Canadian model scenario)

[MKB0925]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

A very similar storm happened on Christmas Day 2002 (the Canadian model scenario)

I remember this very well...my daughter was born Dec 25, 2002 and it was all ice!

I was hoping for snow this year!

[DrPizza]

For CT, only rain and high winds. I doubt this winter will turn out to be impressive, New York City will reach the 54 next week.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by MKB0925

I remember this very well...my daughter was born Dec 25, 2002 and it was all ice!

I was hoping for snow this year!

Actually I believe for everyone it went from rain to ice (the main player) to snow, even NYC got 5" out of it in the end.....

[Csiko]

Smells like snow out there today.

Any updates on the Christmas nonsense?

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Csiko

Smells like snow out there today.

Any updates on the Christmas nonsense?

Rain on Christmas Eve...

[LINative]

What a miserable forecast for Christmas Eve. Heavy rain, warm temperatures and high winds.

Cambium, please use all your influence and find us some snow for Christmas!