[mikelizard860]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Plus it just seems so easy for the warm to come up. That's kinda why I'm leaning towards a warm/early spring. If the southern warmth is so easy to penetrate north it would mean easy 60s at times in April.

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Snowstorm #1. Nice swath of 3-6" still possible.


Current Snow Total Forecast pieced together from 4 offices.

Friday night-Saturday will be the worst day for the weekend

Huge difference in snowfall forecast between boston and new york nws offices. They have 1-2 for southern RI, while new york has 4-6 all the way to the se CT coast! And albany nws has almost nothing for nw CT.

Sum it up? Models are all over the place and changing on every run. That equals forecast uncertainty. All we know at this point is a storm is nearby. We need some model consistency.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Danbury has a 2 hr delay today, only one in CT I could find though some adjacent NY districts in Putnam and Dutchess counties are doing the same......

Good inch of snow in the Bethel/Danbury area.

[Cambium]

NAM12z a Tad faster with the storm, colder for NYC/SWCT but not much precip.

Less than 1/2" qpf in the greens. This is a 24hr precip total.

Areas above 1/2" were subject to wet snow / mix or just rain. Like Atlantic City and MA Capes with a lot of precip but its all rain.

So areas that stay all snow have MUCH less precip. I think we're starting to cap this at 6". Safe bet right now 1-4" across CT.

[Henry10]

Weren't we supposed to get snow yesterday? And no one said anything about snow today, which is what it is happening.

In my search for the Factcheck of Weather Forecasting yesterday, I only found this article about these forecasts .

I don't know who the author is, and her reputation.

However it matches my own observation of these models, for these relatively small events. However they do get the large events, I gotta say, like hurricanes for example.

[NewJeffCT]

We had what maybe a generous person could call a dusting of snow this morning in S/E Connecticut. However, except for a few spots of white near some shrubberies, it's basically all gone.

[Cambium]

If the freezing line at 4000 feet cant even stay off the coast with a track like that, in January.. ... its just another chapter in the story of this winter. Ridiculous.

Who cares if I get 4" if its not all snow and going to change at some point.

Quickly looking at the GFS12z data for Danbury. 850s get up to +1.6°C by 1pm Saturday during the bulk of precip. LOL!

Progressive shouldn't be "the only" reason you should be seeing mentioned. All winter we seen how EASY it is for the mid levels to warm up when precip moves in, especially from the south. This is looking no different now.

Track is fine. Surface temps are fine. Speed is fine. Just gets too warm aloft easy.

Even with 0.25-0.75" at all snow with cold temps and progressive nature it would lead to a nice snowstorm with 10-15:1 ratios.

If the freezing line at 850mb can't stay off the coast with a benchmark storm...in January..that's just another chapter in the story of this winter.

But I would be a fool for not saying again.... Some areas might get their biggest snows of the season. (1-4"+) Whether it sticks around all day or isn't all snow is another story.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by jp03

Good inch of snow in the Bethel/Danbury area.

It was weird this morning driving up almost nothing up 684 almost to 84 then wham, snow cover so I see what you mean.

[mikelizard860]

Originally Posted by Cambium

If the freezing line at 4000 feet cant even stay off the coast with a track like that, in January.. ... its just another chapter in the story of this winter. Ridiculous.

Who cares if I get 4" if its not all snow and going to change at some point.

Quickly looking at the GFS12z data for Danbury. 850s get up to +1.6°C by 1pm Saturday during the bulk of precip. LOL!

Progressive shouldn't be "the only" reason you should be seeing mentioned. All winter we seen how EASY it is for the mid levels to warm up when precip moves in, especially from the south. This is looking no different now.

Track is fine. Surface temps are fine. Speed is fine. Just gets too warm aloft easy.

Even with 0.25-0.75" at all snow with cold temps and progressive nature it would lead to a nice snowstorm with 10-15:1 ratios.

If the freezing line at 850mb can't stay off the coast with a benchmark storm...in January..that's just another chapter in the story of this winter.

But I would be a fool for not saying again.... Some areas might get their biggest snows of the season. (1-4"+) Whether it sticks around all day or isn't all snow is another story.

Yeah we rarely get a low to take a perfect track anyway and now that we do there's not enough cold air in place even if it does take that perfect track.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

It was weird this morning driving up almost nothing up 684 almost to 84 then wham, snow cover so I see what you mean.

Yea, it all occurred between 1-3 oclock.

[Cambium]

Euro keeps all of CT all snow including the coast! Stands alone.

Good amount of precip too!

I'm so glad I'm not a forecaster. LOL!!!